US intelligence warns of Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites
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US intelligence warns of potential Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, risking regional escalation as diplomatic talks with Tehran face mounting pressure.
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In this photo taken by Israeli occupation forces, armed Israeli Air Force planes reportedly depart from an unknown location to launch an aggression on Iran, on October 26, 2024. (AP)
Amid diplomatic engagement between Tehran and Washington, US intelligence has reportedly gathered new information suggesting that “Israel” is preparing for a potential military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to CNN, quoting multiple American officials.
This intelligence points to an escalation that could derail ongoing diplomatic efforts and plunge the region into broader chaos.
“Such a strike would be a brazen break with President Donald Trump,” CNN cited US officials as saying, adding that it “could also risk tipping off a broader regional conflict in the Middle East.”
Officials told CNN that the Israeli regime has not made a final decision, and assessments within Washington remain conflicted. “There is deep disagreement within the US government about the likelihood that Israel will ultimately act,” one source said.
Some believe the recent activity could be a strategic bluff. “The indicators of a potential strike may be an attempt by Israel to pressure Iran to abandon key tenets of its nuclear program by signaling the consequences if it doesn’t,” CNN reported, reflecting on the psychological and geopolitical layers behind Tel Aviv’s messaging.
Intelligence points to preparations, but no consensus
Citing the intelligence findings, CNN reported intercepted Israeli communications and observed military movements, including the relocation of air munitions and the completion of an air exercise. These developments have raised alarms but remain open to interpretation.
“The chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months,” said a person familiar with US intelligence, highlighting that the prospect of a US-Iran deal that preserves any form of uranium enrichment “makes the chance of a strike more likely.”
Still, US officials caution, “It’s not clear that Israeli leaders have made a final decision,” and “there is deep disagreement in the government about the likelihood of Israeli action.”
President Donald Trump had previously warned that failure to achieve a satisfactory deal with Iran would lead to military consequences.
Read more: Poll: Americans overwhelmingly prefer diplomacy with Iran
Iran firm on peaceful nuclear rights, enrichment red lines
Iran has consistently affirmed that its nuclear activities remain peaceful and lawful under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The Islamic Republic has rejected US demands to cease uranium enrichment, calling such conditions unrealistic and a violation of its sovereign rights.
Speaking last week, Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei stated that he does not expect negotiations with the United States to “reach a conclusion”, and described Washington’s demand to halt enrichment as a “big mistake.”
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who leads the US negotiating team, recently told ABC News, “We cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability under an agreement,” further complicating the path toward compromise.
Read more: Sayyed Khamenei rejects US pressure, doubts nuclear talks will succeed
'Israel' caught between pressure and isolation
According to CNN, the Israeli regime is walking a tightrope. On one hand, it is eager to block any US-Iran agreement it perceives as a “bad deal,” and on the other, it seeks to avoid alienating the United States, particularly under a Trump administration that has already clashed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on key issues.
“At the end of the day, the Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy determinations and actions,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior US intelligence official, who added that Netanyahu may not risk a rupture in US-Israeli relations without at least tacit American approval.
Nevertheless, some Israeli sources told CNN that “Israel would be prepared to carry out military action on its own if the US were to negotiate an unfavourable deal with Iran that it cannot accept.” Another source familiar with intelligence assessments said, “I think it’s more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal.’”
Read more: Iran reaffirms right to peaceful nuclear program, vows not to bow
Broader implications and miscalculations
US assessments reportedly warn that even successful strikes would offer only minimal setbacks to Iran’s nuclear progress.
A US intelligence report from February, also cited by CNN, noted that “Israel” may resort to using long-range missiles or military aircraft to exploit what it perceives as vulnerabilities in Iran’s air defense systems. Yet such actions, analysts warn, would not achieve long-term objectives and would risk regional escalation.
While both the US and Iran have put proposals on the table during talks mediated by Oman, no draft agreement has yet received final approval from President Trump. The next round of talks could be held in Europe, but the atmosphere remains tense and uncertain.
Iran maintains that its conditions, sanction relief, and recognition of its sovereign rights must be met if any sustainable agreement is to be reached. The threat of Israeli military action, officials in Tehran argue, only further proves the need for guarantees of sovereignty and deterrence in the face of ongoing provocations.
Read more: Iran: Uranium enrichment will continue despite US demands
