Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban paid a surprise visit to Kiev in early July, bringing with him ideas for bringing an end to the war in Ukraine to an end. The main proposal he voiced was for a ceasefire between the two warring sides, with time limits in which negotiations would take place.

Several days on July 5, Orban traveled to Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He told a subsequent press conference of the two leaders that achieving peace in Ukraine is his top priority. Hungary holds the rotating presidency of the European Union for the second half of 2024. "Europe badly needs peace" is the message Orban delivered in Kiev and in Moscow.

Top officials of the European Union apparently don't agree with Orban. The EU issued a terse, four-paragraph statement on July 7 calling the conflict in Ukraine "Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine" and declaring that "Prime Minister Orbán had no mandate from the EU Council to visit Moscow."

No to peace talks, says Kiev

For reasons undisclosed, the Hungarian government canceled a planned meeting on July 8 between Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and his German counterpart, Annalena Baerbock. On that day, Orban landed in Beijing on what he termed 'peace mission 3.0'. He wrote from Beijing on Twitter/X: "China is a key power in creating the conditions for peace in the Russia-Ukraine war. This is why I came to meet with President Xi in Beijing, just two months after his official visit to Budapest."

Kiev immediately rejected Orban's negotiation proposals. Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky did not directly address them during a joint press conference in Kiev on July 2. But Zelensky's foreign policy adviser Ihor Zhovkva said later in televised remarks, "We say that Ukraine really wants peace for itself, this is logical... For this, we have a tool, the peace summit." The Ukraine regime's 'peace summit' approach is also termed by its advocates as building a global coalition to help Ukraine defeat Russia. 

The first 'Summit on Peace in Ukraine' took place in Switzerland on June 15 and 16, gathering the Ukraine government, the governments of the NATO military alliance, and a scattering of governments of other countries. The Russian government was not invited to attend, and for this reason, many of the large governments of the world did not attend, including China, India, Brazil, and South Africa.

Bloomberg News reported on July 3 that Zelensky refutes the term 'deadlock' to describe the current state of the conflict in Ukraine, and he says the dire manpower situation for Kyiv’s forces is better compared to months ago. He says that launching a new counteroffensive is just a matter of adequately arming its armed forces. "We do have the will… [but] the tools haven’t arrived yet."

Only weeks earlier, both Zelensky as well as his advisor Mykhailo Podolyak were continuing to argue the impossible idea that the road to peace in Ukraine runs through the military defeat of Russia. And so the Zelensky-led government in Kiev is today preparing to cause thousands and thousands more lives of Ukrainian soldiers as the price for maintaining Western countries' confidence and support. This support includes all-important access to loans from foreign governments and financial institutions to state, financial, and commercial interests in Ukraine. 

Boryslav Bereza, a former member of the Verkhova Rada (Ukraine legislature) and former spokesman for the 'Right Sector' far-right party and paramilitary force, drew stark attention on July 4 to Ukraine's military situation. As reported by the Ukrainian political journal Politnavigator, Bereza spoke on his video podcast that day of the idea of a new military 'counteroffensive' by Ukraine's armed forces being talked up in recent weeks by Zelensky. 

"This is an interesting situation. Yes, we can acquire a lot of weapons, but we need people to fight with these weapons. Talking about a 'counteroffensive', it seems to me, is a little bravado, especially today when we cannot stabilize the front and we cannot stop the creeping offensive by the other side. Why? Well, I want to remind you, that Zelensky not so long ago actually destroyed the military mobilization then happening, firing all the military leaders [in February 2024]. We have not forgotten this. He didn't listen to Zaluzhnyi [commander of Ukraine's army at the time] and didn't order a new military mobilization quickly enough. That is why we do not have troops ready to fight today and why military mobilization is only now taking place. The new recruits will be studying for many more months.

"After hearing all this, you will now understand why there can be no serious talk of a 'counteroffensive'," Bereza told his audience.

NATO warfare as political survival

For some Western politicians, a suicidal attempt at a new counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is something of a matter of their political survival. In early July, the well-known Russian pranksters 'Vovan' and 'Lexus' pranked Hillary Clinton by telephone, pretending to be Zelensky's predecessor Petro Poroshenko. (The ten-minute exchange is here on YouTube.) 

Clinton told the pair [believing she was speaking to Poroshenko] that a new offensive by Ukraine is needed to assist the re-election bid of Joseph Biden. "Petro, let's take one step at a time. Let's get this material [armaments] to your soldiers, let's try to get some of the frozen Russian assets, and let's work on NATO membership for you. If the worst happens, if Trump were to win, we will all have to figure out what to do. But I don't think that will happen, I really don't think that will happen." 

The call ended with both laughing when the prankster signed off with, "Let's hope we will see a new Gaddafi", referring to the NATO military intervention in Libya in 2011 which ended in the violent overthrow of the Libyan government and cold-blooded murder of its president.

Clinton added, "You have to move forward as best you can, not only to hold the line but also to go on the offensive. And then many in our country will do everything possible to re-elect President Biden." The call was predicated on the worn claims by Clinton and her Democratic Party machine that Donald Trump is friendly to Russia and does not support continuing the NATO war in Ukraine.

In an earlier call by the same pranksters in late June, now-former British Foreign Secretary David Cameron also spoke of the need for a new offensive by the Ukrainian armed forces. He, too, spoke of the context of the U.S. election. "I think the key point is that if we can make sure that by November Ukraine is on the front lines and Putin backs down, then he [Trump] will want to support the winning side if I can put it that way. That's what we have to guarantee. And that's why this summer is so important," Cameron said.

Neither of the two leaders expressed the slightest moral concern about the ongoing losses of Ukrainian lives, let alone Russian lives, caused by their war. We see once again that Ukrainian soldiers, most of whom have been forcibly conscripted, are being condemned to die from missiles, artillery, and powerful glide bombs in order to favor the electoral chances of a U.S. presidential candidate. 

NATO summit to take place at the center of power

NATO's 75th-anniversary summit will be held in Washington, DC from July 9 to 11. The central topic of the agenda will be the war in Ukraine. And related to that will be the subject of NATO membership for Ukraine. 

Zelensky and his governing regime are desperate to hear something, anything, positive about a future NATO membership. But the decision has already been made by NATO not to do so. A report on July 2 in the British daily Telegraph begins with: "Ukraine will be told it is currently too corrupt to join NATO, in a major blow to Volodymyr Zelensky. The alliance will request 'additional steps' from Kyiv before membership talks progress, a senior official in the U.S. State Department has said. The position will be set out in writing in the NATO communique to be signed at the alliance's annual summit beginning on July 9." (see note#1 below)

The Telegraph adds, "NATO allies still disagree over whether they should upgrade the statement they made last year at their summit in Vilnius, Lithuania to make their offer to Kyiv 'irreversible'."

Zelensky will be in attendance at the summit in Washington and will likely be given the promise of a "well-lit bridge" to NATO membership (a term favored by the U.S. government, according to The Telegraph. 

More IMF loans to Ukraine 

An additional reason for Zelensky's attendance in Washington is to keep the flow of IMF funding to his government. In early July, Kiev received another tranche of loans of US$2.2bn from the IMF. This is the fifth installment of a four-year loan by the IMF totaling US$15.6bn. The previous lending was made at two percent interest; this new installment is a harsh seven percent. Ukraine's Ministry of Finance reported on June 19, "Even IMF loans, which are now provided at a really high rate of about seven percent (because they are tied to a basket of interest rates of the world's key central banks), are preferential for us since the market rate for us with our credit rating would now be up to 20%. And it is still an ongoing question whether they would lend to us on market terms in conditions of war."

In late June, news of an updated memorandum with the IMF became widespread in Ukraine. In order for the government and finance ministry to repay their loans, the last penny will be squeezed from ordinary Ukrainians. For example, as a condition for more loans, Ukraine has pledged to raise tariffs to consumers for natural gas (winter heating), electricity, and water. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine is expected to approve a roadmap "for gradual liberalization of the gas and electricity markets".

The chairman of the Union of Consumers of Utility Services, Oleh Popenko, recently warned against the plan of the Verkhovna Rada to raise the tariffs for natural gas this fall. [As with all former Soviet republics, multi-dwelling buildings in Ukrainian cities are heated by hot water tanks (boilers) using natural gas, while private homes are typically heated by electric, how water boilers.] Popenko warns that as a result, the country will face a crisis of payment defaults. "If we raise tariffs for the population to the proposed, high figures, a real collapse awaits us. Not everyone will be able to pay the higher payments and there is no money in the budget to raise subsidies [for the poorest people]. Therefore, the utility industries, which are already going through bad times, may simply collapse."

Electricity tariffs have already been sharply raised, nearly doubling on June 1. This will not be the last increase, as spelled out in the new IMF memorandum.

Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch also notes that the IMF is demanding that all of Ukraine's financial information be handed over to it. "The tightening of control is noticeable. Let’s just look at the requirement of the National Bank of Ukraine to strengthen reporting to the IMF. Information on import-export transactions, the registrations of bank card holders, and other sensitive information will be required to be shared. All this suggests an element of distrust in Ukrainian officials on the part of the IMF. This all leads to tighter control." 

In essence, the IMF is becoming the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine and is able to regulate Ukraine's financial system remotely. 

The IMF is demanding an even tougher tax regime and higher tax collections. There is a growing hole in Ukraine's budget due to lower tax collections caused by military conscription. As well, more and more businesses are closing, while male taxpayers facing possible conscription are quitting their jobs and joining the shadow labor market to avoid being sent to the front lines. (Employers in Ukraine are obliged to report to military officials the men in their employ who are of the age of military registration (18) and conscription (25).

The new agreement with the IMF also recommends cuts in government spending, which under the current governing regime inevitably means cutting social benefits to the poor and to internally displaced persons while freezing the amount of payments to the disabled (who many defenders of the government complain are becoming 'too numerous'). 

As part of the privatizations of an industry which Kiev is required by the IMF to carry out, Ukrainian authorities are privatizing companies that manufacture and fit prosthetics. While profitable natural gas fields or metallurgical plants have been prized for privatizations, now prosthetics companies are joining them. Dozens, maybe hundreds, of soldiers are daily losing limbs on battlefields. During wartime, many factories are sold for a fraction of their value as their assets fall in value, but privatized or contracted companies making prosthetics will see the value and prices of their products rise sharply.

Ukrainian journalist and writer Miroslava Berdnik comments, "Kharkiv Prosthetic Plant and Lviv Prosthetic Plant have already been declared bankrupt and been closed down; the employees have been dismissed. The provision of prosthetics is itself being 'conscripted' as many of the employees involved in making and fitting them are receiving military enlistment notices. Workers in the industry are writing in social media that factories producing less-expensive prosthetics in Ukraine and clinics fitting them are being replaced by foreign-owned and very expensive, alternative services." 

Odessa anarchist Vyacheslav Azarov notes that Ukraine's fulfillment of obligations to the IMF is obliterating the country's independence; the country is now ruled by external, financial interests. "Equally important is that our authorities are meeting obligations to a foreign financial power by increasing the taxation. Formally, it turns out that we elected this power [in 2019, and before that in 2014] to worsen our lives at the behest of foreign capital. I now find it difficult to understand what is left of Ukraine 'independence' when a state created by elections [since the coup in 2014] acts to harm its electorate through financial agreements with external forces."

In addition, a moratorium on interest payments on Ukrainian bonds, worth USD20 billion, expires in August and Ukraine will either have to pay up, negotiate a new moratorium, or default. Western masters will not allow a default, so they will recommend finding more government revenue. Ukrainian authorities do not know any other way to do this but to increase taxes and fines on ordinary citizens. 

One of the options to boost the budget in order to repay the loans could be financial penalties for conscription evaders. Failure to pay fines will henceforth result in confiscation of property. As of July 16, all Ukrainian men (and women with a medical education) will be considered evaders and criminals if they do not serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They will be fined the equivalent of 600 USD, a huge amount in today's Ukraine, even if they have not received a military enlistment notice or have been living abroad for many years. 

Ukrainian lawyer Larisa Kis wrote on Telegram on July 2 that the $600 fines can be issued an infinite number of times, even every day. When accumulated fines reach 160,000 hryvnias (US$4,000), all property and housing can be taken away from the debtor. Here gain is the choice facing Ukrainians: either die at the military front in a losing war to help Joe Biden's re-election chances, or lose one's home, property, and job if the choice is to evade conscription and war. 

In the old days, highway robbers stopped passers-by with the command, 'Your money or your life!' The leadership of Ukraine, the IMF, the U.S. government, and the NATO military alliance are today acting as 21st-century highway robbers.