Al Mayadeen English

  • Ar
  • Es
  • x
Al Mayadeen English

Slogan

  • News
    • Politics
    • Economy
    • Sports
    • Arts&Culture
    • Health
    • Miscellaneous
    • Technology
    • Environment
  • Articles
    • Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Blog
    • Features
  • Videos
    • NewsFeed
    • Video Features
    • Explainers
    • TV
    • Digital Series
  • Infographs
  • In Pictures
  • • LIVE
News
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Sports
  • Arts&Culture
  • Health
  • Miscellaneous
  • Technology
  • Environment
Articles
  • Opinion
  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Features
Videos
  • NewsFeed
  • Video Features
  • Explainers
  • TV
  • Digital Series
Infographs
In Pictures
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • MENA
  • Palestine
  • US & Canada
BREAKING
Lebanese government: The army will act within the framework of the relevant decision during the August 5 session, but it has the right to exercise operational discretion
Lebanese government: The Army Commander outlined the restrictions related to the implementation of the plan, the first of which is Israeli attacks
Lebanese government: The Lebanese Army will begin implementing the plan under the available capabilities
Lebanese government: Any progress in implementing the US envoy's paper is contingent on the Israeli side's commitment
Lebanese government: Lebanon approved the paper's objectives in the cabinet and prepared the army's plan, but the Israeli side did not take corresponding steps
Lebanese government: The US envoy’s paper stipulated coordinated steps from all parties, and its implementation is contingent on the approval of the concerned parties
Lebanese government: 'Israel's' continued violations expose regional security and stability to grave risks
Lebanese government: The army command will submit a monthly report to the Council of Ministers
Lebanese government: Israeli behavior reflects the absence of any real intention to commit to the truce and undermines stability efforts
Lebanese Minister of Information: The Council of Ministers decided to keep the content of the army's plan and its deliberations confidential

China: Will it now Toss Caution to the Wind?

  • Alastair Crooke Alastair Crooke
  • Source: Al Mayadeen English
  • 15 Aug 2022 00:04
  • 12 Shares
7 Min Read

This is key: In the dawning light of the US deceit over Taiwan, will China now toss caution aside, and recognise that it needs both Russian and Iranian military and strategic depth?

  • x
  • China: Will it now Toss Caution to the Wind?
    Well, the Chinese eyes have been opened

From the outside, one sees a West Asia girding up, and wrenching its stance around, to face eastwards. It is not simply a geographic displacement towards a different compass setting, however.  It is in part, a ‘push-reaction’ to the pall of litigious sanctions, regulation and asset seizures on individuals unconnected, or very loosely connected, to sanctioned states - billowing out from the EU sanctions ‘factory’.

But the real catalyst to this incipient ‘pivot’ rather, is the decisive pull of a comprehensive Vision being dropped onto the playing-board of the Great Game, by Russia. ‘Heartland’ states are both intrigued and attracted. There is a whiff, too, of Bandung II to the affair. The Bandung Conference in 1955, was also launched on the principles self-determination, mutual respect for sovereignty, non-aggression, non-interference in internal affairs - and of equality in participation. 

Of course, the original energy behind that initiative dissipated under the impact of a new financialised colonialism, but somehow there is in the air today a tentative renaissance of those early anti-colonial sentiments directed in this instance, at the ‘Rules-Based Order’ imposed, blanket covering.

In quick succession, we have had a ‘full house’ of potentially strategy re-defining summits: The Caspian, the Tehran and Russia-Turkey reset conferences.  All have major strategic significance -- and already we see some first ‘buds’ of growth in the plan for President Erdogan to call President Assad.  

This, in and of itself, will mitigate regional tensions.  President Putin’s revival of the Adana Agreement (1998), in which Damascus guaranteed the containment of Syria-based Kurdish movements, however, might yet open a path to an ultimate Syria settlement in respect to both the jihadists in the east, on the one hand (with Erdogan’s co-operation), and an ending to the US occupation of north-east Syria, on the other (with Russian facilitation).

This latter is but one example of the new political dynamics beginning to come alive. These openings, nonetheless, are buttressed by solid economic interest - centred around the advent of new trade and economic channels, in ways to mitigate the west’s barrage of sanctions - whilst at the same time, generating new commercial initiatives to lift the Region out from its crisis.

The sinews of this Vision are the massive waterway network, underpinned at the Caspian conference, together with a companion, Heartland pipeline network.  In the West, cheap waterway corridors have been neglected. But here we witness unfolding an extraordinary network, stretching East to the Black Sea (thus potentially linking to the Danube) and (more directly) to the Mediterranean. Northwards, to the Artic northern sea-route: southwards, via the Caspian and the North South Corridor, to Dubai and India; and eastwards, via the BRI, to China. Quicker and less costly corridors than the maritime alternatives.

All of this is to be given a solidity by new payment systems stretching from Africa (Pan-African Payment and Settlement System) that is to dovetail with the alt-SWIFT Mir and Union Pay systems. By a lilly-pad spread of tax-free Special Economic Zones unfolding across the MENA region; and by a railway renaissance criss-crossing the African continent, both laterally and vertically.

Taken together, this represents a strategic move to take commerce, its transportation corridors and all payment systems out of the maws of the Rimland, ‘Great Game’ maritime powers. The West seethes. The Establishment journal The Financial Times already has been firing off warning flares about a too-close realignment between Turkey and Russia. Anonymous EU commentators hint that in the latter event, Turkey may find itself sanctioned by the EU.

Related News

Desperate Biden ignores precedent by arming the DPP

Analyzing Lai Ching-te's Visit to the U.S. and its Significance for China-U.S. Relations

Paradoxically, the defining event - that may tie all these Russian initiatives together – took place thousands of miles from the Region: The Pelosi visit to Taiwan that so infuriated Beijing.

It is not the immediate Chinese military reaction, nor  China’s cancellation of a series of bilateral channels of communication with the US, that is the point here; but rather, that the pace and intensity of US-China tension is set to go up -- changing that relationship forever.

It would seem that China has come to understand that Biden lied. Three times he said explicitly said that the US would militarily defend Taiwan, in the event of a Chinese forced takeover of the island. Each time these statements were walked back by Biden staffers: ‘Oh, you know, Biden is apt to mis-speak’.  He, Biden, really, truly stands by the One China policy. 

That was not true.

Well, the Chinese eyes have been opened. They firstly understand now, that the US intends to do everything possible to ensure that a peaceful reunification never takes place. This insight has touched the still raw nerve of China’s 'Century of Humiliation' by western powers, seizing and occupying portions of China.

Secondly, they must understand that it flows from the latter insight that reunification must be forced – by one way, or another - against US wishes.  And thirdly, that the window of opportunity (or at least, the opportunity to do so without starting a major war), will gradually be closed on them.

These two points imply that the US-China relations can never be the same again.  How does this impinge on the Middle East?  It matters in this way (as explained by a Russian military commentator, but below is paraphrased):

It is easy to forget that China has played the part of being a very ‘good boy’ for the US, when it comes to sanctions against Russia. (Jake Sullivan had threatened the Chinese at Ankara, to not by-pass US sanctions - if it valued its US and EU markets.) Yes, China buys Russia's energy, but so does the USA, who exempted it, together with other strategic resources, from sanctions.  

It took the obvious humiliation of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, for China to start recognising that maybe there should be more than just buying of energy and some military-technology from Russia, plus verbal support in a strategic partnership. Russia fully supports China and will continue her support; but it is about time China also undertook very substantive steps, not just declarations, towards real alliance and adjustment of China's economic aspirations to the realities of the Eurasian integration, whose strategic security rests with Russia.  

This is key: In the dawning light of the US deceit over Taiwan, will China now toss caution aside, and recognise that it needs both Russian and Iranian military and strategic depth? And now, in its relations with Russia and Iran, will it throw its unqualified weight behind the various Eurasian integration projects?

If so, it will turbo-charge the Region -- just when it needs it the most.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Mayadeen’s editorial stance.
  • Taiwan
  • Russia
  • US
  • China
Alastair Crooke

Alastair Crooke

Director of Conflicts Forum; Former Senior British Diplomat; Author.

Most Read

All
Almost instantly after the Helsinki Accords were signed, organisations sprouted to document purported violations, whose findings were fed to overseas embassies for international amplification. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Zeinab el-Hajj)

How ‘Human Rights’ became a Western weapon

  • Opinion
  • 23 Aug 2025
Although it does seem likely they will launch some kind of operation in northern Gaza, one which will accelerate its mass murder of civilians, but will fail to achieve its stated objectives. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Batoul Chamas)

Here is why the Israeli occupation of Gaza won’t work

  • Opinion
  • 26 Aug 2025
The Coming War On Iran Will Be Regional, Perhaps International

The coming war on Iran will be regional, perhaps international

  • Opinion
  • 2 Sep 2025
The ‘Arab Façade’ for Israeli occupation in Gaza

The ‘Arab Façade’ for Israeli occupation in Gaza

  • Opinion
  • 23 Aug 2025

Coverage

All
War on Iran

More from this writer

All
The Nakedness of EU ‘Geo-political’ Ambitions Will Be Revealed - As the Ukraine War Melts Away

The Nakedness of EU ‘Geo-political’ Ambitions Will Be Revealed - As the Ukraine War Melts Away

The Slow-Motion Advance to the Edge of the Abyss

The Slow-Motion Advance to the Edge of the Abyss

Already, "Israel" has the White House committed to support an Israeli military operation against Hezbollah. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Zeinab El-Hajj)

Does 'Israel' want war?

The European Mutiny: The Consequences are Just Beginning

The European Mutiny: The Consequences are Just Beginning

Al Mayadeen English

Al Mayadeen is an Arab Independent Media Satellite Channel.

All Rights Reserved

  • x
  • Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Authors
Android
iOS