Global market stakes in China’s economic growth

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Many optimistic growth signs that were witnessed during China’s key Lunar Holiday season are here to stay long-term. China’s resilient economic growth is increasingly led by a travel surge that is inviting market optimism in key parts of the world. 

On the financial front, Asian markets continue to look at heightened prospects of increased inflows, a sigh of relief for underperforming economies that are keen to recover. That is a welcome change in the context of China’s broader opening-up policy, which promises to account for half of global gross domestic product growth this year. The return of legions of Chinese visitors to tourist hotspots also provides a prelude to long-term reopening benefits, such as easing inflationary pressures as consumption gathers steam. From finance to sales, major market sectors abroad now have a deep stake in benefitting from both China’s expanding economy, and the long-term pay-offs associated with its robust reopening.

Consider the marked rise in estimated earnings in Asian markets earlier on. Waning appetite in prior months is likely to be overtaken by a much-needed boost, as growth drivers weigh in and financial markets bank on China’s economic rebound as a decisive factor. For instance, foreign investors already bought almost $17 billion in mainland China stocks in the opening stages, and economies as far as Canada have a stake in reviving commodity demand so that consumers in China help ride out potential recessions. The message from the developed world is clear: this cannot be done alone.

Also, all this comes amid the same period that a substantial boom in Chinese travel brought prolonged spending benefits to foreign shores. As a result, inflows have already been drawn to their highest monthly target to date this year, a telling sight for popular growth and tourist destinations that continue to benefit on both fronts.

In many countries, the growth-intensive service industry also accounts for a valuable contribution to GDP, underlining the value of a rapidly rebounding Chinese economy. For instance, visitors alone spent over $250 billion a year globally before the pandemic hit. Another unique advantage to global markets is the diverse range of sectors that are subject to spending: from lucrative travel and consumption in Asia to high-value luxury sectors in Europe, growth-driven tourism from the world’s second-largest economy appears to benefit all. These possibilities further reinforce the merits of opening-up markets, and lend a productive buffer against lackluster sales revenue accumulated by some overseas markets, encouraging a rebound.

There is also a strong chance that China’s economic growth approach will land more evenly on emerging and less advantaged economies. Record inflows have already made their way into key emerging market funds, supporting the likelihood that sustained growth will lead to “many months of payoff.”

Interestingly, the rapid upgrade to China’s growth outlook, coupled with the gravitational pull of key markets towards outbound travel, indicate a long-term advantage for global investors. After all, one of the recent investment downsides was global supply chain bottlenecks, which dampened hopes of adequate returns, and kept inflationary pressures on a high. But a Chinese reopening – led by a substantial surge in outbound travel – is expected to cool those very inflationary pressures, strengthening the case for much-needed investor relief.

From a market recession viewpoint, China’s current reopening momentum is a very promising look. Investors remain on the lookout for markets that enjoy significant risk-aversion and identify as “recession-proof.” These preferences are all the more important at present, considering that clouded growth forecasts and recession risks loom large over many developed economies, including a complacent and debt-tied US economy. These culminate into mixed signals on courting investors, a limitation that does not apply to Beijing at present. 

With high-growth reopening and outbound spending on the cards, China is largely prepared to ride out such constraints to the benefit of regional economies. Add to it some $2 trillion in excess, unspent savings in China, and consumer spending will appear in all forms of globalized interactions, including travel, as well as domestic consumption in the near-term.

Ultimately, there is little doubt that global markets will continue to consolidate their stakes in China’s reopening and travel surge, both for the better. Prospects for developing economies are equally promising. It is a reality that Beijing’s approach to economic resilience and consumption merits a reciprocal response from overseas markets, so that both sides can scale the benefits of opening-up long-term. 

In the words of Weng Jieming, Vice Chairman of the State Council’s Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC): there is a need for reciprocity in countries’ degrees of openness to make sure that cooperation “keeps moving forward on that stable footing and benefits everyone.” Nations that continue to treat their economic recovery prospects as a domestic endeavor will miss out on the value that integrated reopening offers to a world in wait.