Al Mayadeen English

  • Ar
  • Es
  • x
Al Mayadeen English

Slogan

  • News
    • Politics
    • Economy
    • Sports
    • Arts&Culture
    • Health
    • Miscellaneous
    • Technology
    • Environment
  • Articles
    • Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Blog
    • Features
  • Videos
    • NewsFeed
    • Video Features
    • Explainers
    • TV
    • Digital Series
  • Infographs
  • In Pictures
  • • LIVE
News
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Sports
  • Arts&Culture
  • Health
  • Miscellaneous
  • Technology
  • Environment
Articles
  • Opinion
  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Features
Videos
  • NewsFeed
  • Video Features
  • Explainers
  • TV
  • Digital Series
Infographs
In Pictures
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • MENA
  • Palestine
  • US & Canada
BREAKING
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) claims responsibility for Ankara attack
British Defense Minister Grant Shapps: We are deploying RAF Typhoons to Poland
British Defense Minister Grant Shapps announces a 4 billion pound ($4.9 billion) deal to build attack submarines
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: We have waited 60 years at the doorstep of the European Union. We are no longer waiting.
Al Mayadeen correspondent: One civilian martyred, another injured by Saudi Arabia's armed forces in Saada, Yemen.
The Turkish authorities have banned media from broadcasting at the scene of an attempted terrorist attack that hit the capital near Parliament earlier.
An explosion and gunfire heard in Turkey’s capital Ankara near the parliament and the ministries.
US House 45-day stopgap funding bill with no aid for Ukraine gets enough votes.
Armenia quickly denied the allegations of killing an Azerbaijani soldier, saying the claim its forces had opened fire on Azerbaijani positions "does not correspond to reality".
Azerbaijan says a soldier was killed by a sniper on the Armenian border.

Two architectural rivals slug it out

  • Alastair CrookeAlastair Crooke
  • Source: Al Mayadeen English
  • 17 Jul 2022 14:24
  • 4 Shares
  • x

The post-24 February world truly is different. The inexorable geopolitical logic today is that of America’s attention turning elsewhere, and the world sees a weaker US. 

  • Two architectural rivals slug it out
    Two architectural rivals slug it out

No one seems sure quite why Biden is making this trip to the Middle East. It is a mystery. For sure, it's not for plaudits at home: Jamal Khashoggi and Shireen Abu Akleh’s shrouds swirl mistily around the US delegation, giving it the jitters. Biden is being roasted even in the most supportive US journals for the risk to the safety of journalists implicit in any reconciliation with MbS. 

Biden comes not for the Palestinians. Rather, he comes bearing a small gift for "Israel" – which is that he will ignore the Palestinians, as best he can. Nor is it to inaugurate an Arab NATO (Gulf states want to retain ties to Iran). And it's not even for the oil: The UAE will not give him even a single extra barrel, and the Saudis, maybe just an additional 100,000 or 150,000 barrel per day (and even that will be set against OPEC+ states that have undersupplied to quota).

A neurologist once told me that our brains are like a virgin wood. Initially, grass and flowers are everywhere beneath the trees. And then a deer wanders through and passes on. Another follows on, and another, and all follow the track laid by the first deer. It becomes a deeply trodden path. Diplomacy is like that. 

Two decades ago, a Clean Break strategy was produced that said the US must be friends with – and support - the region’s monarchs against the secular socialist Arab States to make "Israel" safe. And US Presidents all have hued to that same track through the wood. Nothing changes -- just a new name is found for a ‘new’ Arab alliance against Iran. 

And so Biden is doing the walk in the wood. But this time it’s more about ‘occupying space’ in the region: Jollying along the monarchs to make sure that this ‘American space’ is denied to Russia. 

There is today in Washington this worry that the Russian sphere looks too enticing. And there is cause to worry (even Josep Borrell admits it): The West, at the G20 Foreign Ministers summit in Bali, utterly failed to force the BRICS plus major Global South players to isolate and sanction Russia over Ukraine. They are still trying: India and Saudi are in their sights now. However, the Chinese G20 readout highlighted that Jaishankar had conveyed to Wang Yi that “India will continue upholding strategic autonomy and an independent position on international affairs”. India also has told the US that it will not participate in any project to try to cap the price of Russian oil.

The Americans are peddling their regional security architecture (based on polarisation around Iran). But Russia has an alternative. 

The SCO-BRICS architecture is different from that of the Americans. It envisages an architecture that is not directed by outside powers, but one in which its participants have ownership. Russia and China are insistent on this point. And it is intended to be inclusive.

The post-24 February world truly is different. The inexorable geopolitical logic today is that of America’s attention turning elsewhere (to China). And the world sees a weakening America. 

This month's Harpers title is astonishing: Harpers Declares 'It's Over' - The 'American Century' Is Gone. What’s more, it says it, absent the de rigueur question mark. It stood out a mile even before Harpers came out with this title: Compare the childish antics of the G7 to the workmanlike conduct evidenced at the BRICS Summit.

Against this background, everyone is weighing the course of history. If war is to be avoided, some security architecture is necessary. And the Russian initiative is appealing precisely because it includes Iran. Iran is a member of the SCO and an applicant to BRICS. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar are applicants to the SCO too, and Saudi Arabia has been invited to join the BRICS. Egypt and Syria have applied for SCO observer status and Turkey is a dialogue partner. So it already enjoys the basis of architecture.

And, if we add that the SCO already possesses a security dimension and a powerful economic dimension in the Eurasian Economic Community that links to the Belt and Road Initiative, the northern architecture becomes compelling.

This week Iran announced the completion of the first shipment of cargo departing from St Petersburg via the North-South Transport Corridor. It passed through the Caspian Sea port of Anzali and the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas to Bombay. 

This new route, which is planned to be upgraded to High Speed within one year, both cuts transport times – and costs - dramatically. India has just made the rupee a trade currency, and Iran has signed an interbank clearing agreement with Russia. We predict that it will be the Gulf that pivots -- pivots in trade to India and Asia.

Events are moving with dispatch. Is it then any wonder that Team Biden is back to try to shore up relations? Will Team Biden’s outcome in the region be so different from the outcome at the G20 that so dis-spirited Josep Borrell?

The opinions mentioned in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Al mayadeen, but rather express the opinion of its writer exclusively.
  • United States
  • Nato
  • BRICS
  • G7
  • Russia
  • Shanghai Cooperation Organization
  • China
  • G20
  • Middle East
  • Joe Biden
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Iran
Russia & NATO

Russia & NATO

As the Draconian Western-led sanctions on Russia exacerbate the economic crisis worldwide, and as Russian troops gain more ground despite the influx of military aid into Ukraine, exposing US direct involvement in bio-labs spread across Eastern Europe and the insurgence of neo-Nazi groups… How will things unfold?

Alastair Crooke

Alastair Crooke

Director of Conflicts Forum; Former Senior British Diplomat; Author.

Most Read

All
Blinken’s ‘Variable Geometry’ for a New Cold War

Blinken’s ‘Variable Geometry’ for a New Cold War

  • Analysis
  • 24 Sep 2023
Who Would Ally with the West: ‘It’s Boring – The Real Excitement is in Asia’

Who Would Ally with the West: ‘It’s Boring – The Real Excitement is in Asia’

  • Analysis
  • 30 Sep 2023
Kiev forces continue to deliberately target journalists

Kiev forces continue to deliberately target journalists

  • Europe
  • 29 Sep 2023
The British actively encouraged “increased contact between Yugoslavia and the uncommitted countries,” both overtly and covertly

Declassified: Yugoslavia’s ‘propaganda value’ for British spies

  • Opinion
  • 21 Sep 2023

Coverage

All
G77 Summit 2023

More from this writer

All
Who Would Ally with the West: ‘It’s Boring – The Real Excitement is in Asia’

Who Would Ally with the West: ‘It’s Boring – The Real...

Blinken’s ‘Variable Geometry’ for a New Cold War

Blinken’s ‘Variable Geometry’ for a New Cold War

Old habits, linger … linger well past the time when old rituals (an Israeli PM visit to the Oval Office) had agency and the world hung on the outcome. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Arwa Makki)

Will a tripartite US-Saudi-Israeli ‘Deal’ make Any difference?

The Smotrich-Ben-Gvir riposte seems to be working: Already, there is reportedly a rise in support for the Jewish Power party among the IOF’s rank and file, with an estimated 20% of IOF soldiers voting for Ben-Gvir’s party.

Netanyahu Coalition Goes Full Provocation -- As the US...

Al Mayadeen English

Al Mayadeen is an Arab Independent Media Satellite Channel.

All Rights Reserved

  • x
  • Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Authors
Android
iOS