The final war with "Israel": How and when?
To be able to answer this question, we need to understand both the Palestinian and regional situation.
Palestinians are geographically divided between three regions, each has its own realities and struggles, disconnected from the others: 1948 Palestinians, the West Bank, and Gaza.
The 1948 Palestinians live within the current borders of "Israel" and constantly face harassment and racism.
In the West Bank, Palestinians face constant expulsions from their homes and lands, daily raids and arrests in their villages, and psychological pressure to make them feel unsafe and strangers in their own lands. Foreign settlers keep flocking mainly from Europe to colonize the entirety of the West Bank. Colonies are chosen strategically to disconnect Palestinian villages from each other. Furthermore, the Palestinian Authority which governs the West Bank, is under the bankroll of the US and Europe, and has a huge police force that has a mission of quelling Palestinian anger and resistance against Israeli settlers and Police in the West Bank.
In Gaza, there’s a physical and economic embargo that prevents connection with the outer world, a dire sanitary and humanitarian crisis, and fishermen constantly get assassinated by the IOF patrol boats while they fish. Fishing zones often get closed or restricted by the IOF.
"Israel’s" strategy is to disconnect Palestinians from each other to destroy the national cohesion between Palestinians and erase the feeling of being part of a country. This is achieved by physically separating Palestinians and putting large amounts of pressure on them in each area, which imposes separate and different struggles. As long as Palestinians are separated and don’t work as a single group that is seeking to achieve common goals, "Israel" will continue its expansion unhindered. The minimal goal of the Palestinian people is to at least have a sovereign state with full rights within the 1967 borders. Some want a complete liberation of Palestine while others settle for the 1967 borders.
One event officially killed any idea of peace or negotiations with "Israel": Trump’s decision to recognize occupied Al-Quds as "Israel’s" eternal capital and the Syrian Golan Heights as Israeli territory. This decision overturned international law and internationally recognized borders. One thing has become clear: "Israel" is expanding, will never accept any kind of functioning state, and the only option to obtain your rights is armed resistance. This was the official ending of the Oslo Accords.
The situation in Palestine has been slowly evolving towards escalation since Trump’s decision to recognize occupied Al-Quds as "Israel’s" eternal capital. Settlers got emboldened and increased massively the ethnic cleansing inside occupied Al-Quds and increased the raids on Al-Aqsa Mosque. This Mosque is the 3rd holiest site of Muslims. "Israel" wants sovereignty over the Mosque by trying to impose temporal divisions by imposing on Palestinians what time they are allowed to pray and by sending hordes of Zionist settlers to the mosques at different times.
Operation Seif Al-Quds
Last year in 2021, during the Seikh Jarrah expulsions and the raids on Al-Aqsa Mosque by Israeli settlers, factions in Gaza saw the perfect window of opportunity to unite all Palestinians as well as all the Islamic world under the banner of occupied Al-Quds and Al-Aqsa Mosque. The factions threatened to strike "Israel" if it does not stop the raids on Al-Aqsa. "Israel" ignored, Gaza started firing missiles on "Tel Aviv" and Palestinians in 1948 territories and the West Bank started attacking settlers in the areas they live in. This effectively broke all the barriers of separation that "Israel" has been building over the years. This event linked the struggle of Gaza, the West Bank, and the 1948 Palestinians, and garnered the support of the entire Islamic and the free world. This also dealt a blow to the Arab regimes that normalized with Israel, because under no circumstance any Arab regime can defend "Israel" while opposing the defense of Al-Aqsa Mosque since it is a Holy Islamic Mosque. The operation had a huge political, social, and mediatic success.
Axis of Al-Quds (regional resistance):
The Axis of Al-Quds (Hezbollah, Syria, Yemen, Iraqi PMU, Iran) cannot start the war of liberation of Palestine if the Palestinians themselves are not already unified and in a revolutionary state across all Palestinian territory waging armed resistance. The liberation must start with Palestinians themselves.
This is the political atmosphere that will allow the Axis of Al-Quds to intervene. A full-scale Palestinian intifada and the defense of Al-Aqsa Mosque. It is "Israel" and the US that destroyed the Oslo accords with the recognition of occupied Al-Quds as "Israel’s" capital, therefore Palestinians are automatically considered as being in self-defense by international law, in a very clear way. They already were, but this time there is no more room for any justification, the Zionist entity is in full conquest mode and Syria, as well as Palestinians, can retaliate with help from their allies.
What will happen in the future?
Since last year’s operation of Seif Al-Quds, lone wolf attacks are happening everywhere in occupied territories, and their frequency is increasing. The latest and most dangerous attack happened in "Tel Aviv" in the heart of "Israel", even outside of the 1948 territories. "Israel" is increasing pressure on the West Bank and 1948 territories, and Palestinians have absolutely nothing to lose anymore. They are slowly reforming national unity towards armed resistance. When will the intifada happen? We never know, but it is very close. It can be from a few months to a few years, but the Palestinians are steadily increasing acts of resistance over time. Any event can spark a popular uprising, such as the assassination of Shireen Abu Akleh the Al Jazeera journalist. Gaza is mounting pressure by threatening to start the Seif Al-Quds 2 operation if the prisoners are not released, the siege is not lifted, and raids on Al-Aqsa are continuing.
"Israel" is faced with two options with all these events.
1- Give in to the demands of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, which is considered as a huge defeat for "Israel" on all levels. It will delay the final clash, but it will also encourage Palestinians to reclaim their full rights by force because that is the only thing that works.
2- Try to suppress the growing Palestinian uprising, which risks igniting the intifada even faster. It can take between months and several years, but in both cases, we are heading for the final confrontation.
Of course, there is always the possibility that "Israel" becomes adventurous and executes a wrong calculation in the region which risks igniting the regional war with the Al-Quds Axis earlier and outside of the context stated above.