The Syrian-Russian relations, which began in 1944, witnessed great developments and important leaps at all political, economic, social, and military levels, which made Damascus and Moscow transcend the boundaries of traditional friendship and establish new levels of strategic and comprehensive coordination in all files, according to a clear and shared vision for everything related to international and bilateral issues of common interest.

What are the challenges facing Russia's participation in the reconstruction process of Syria? What is the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Russian military presence in Syria? What are the prospects for economic and social stability after the war in Syria?

These and other questions were posed by Al Mayadeen English to the Russian expert on Syria and the Middle East with a background in diplomacy, Dr. Igor Matveev, who arrived for the first time in Damascus in 1993 and later chose "Syria's foreign policy in the Middle East" as the subject of his doctoral dissertation, which he obtained in 2003.

Dr. Matveev worked as a Russian diplomat in Syria and the USA, and between 2014 and 2017 he held the position of head of the commercial and economic department as a senior advisor at the Russian Embassy in Damascus.

In 2018, he published a book entitled “The Economic Impact of the Syria Crisis: Lessons and Prospects.”

The following is the full text of the interview:

In March of this year, President Bashar Al-Assad visited Moscow for the first time since the war began. Many commentators said this visit will open a new phase in bilateral relations between the two countries at all levels. What are, in your opinion, the main features of this new phase?

Yes, but President Bashar Al-Assad visited Moscow three times before that.

As for this visit, I do not think that it establishes a new phase at all. It is rather a continuous development of relations between the two brotherly countries.

According to the official agenda, many ministers were present, including the minister of Economy and Foreign Trade and the head of the Planning and International Cooperation Authority, which is a very important body in the Syrian government. This is clear evidence of the interest that Syria pays to develop relations with the Russian Federation in all fields, especially economic, financial, and investments, but I think that one of the most important things discussed was the normalization of the relationship between Syria and Turkey. After the visit, the two countries launched a clear work map in this regard, with Russian diplomatic support.

Many Syrians feel disappointed after they pinned great hopes on the start of economic improvement after the return of Syrian-Gulf relations. How do you view this matter?

Starting in the summer of 2020, Arab experts began to discuss the issue of Gulf economic openness to Syria, that is, granting of investments.

I would like to point out here that Gulf investments were present during the Syrian crisis and in the most difficult times, in the banking sector, insurance, and other economic sectors. There is even a presence of several Gulf companies in the industrial city of Hasya in Homs, and this is an important factor because it is the basis for subsequent progress.

However, there are challenges even after appropriate positive decisions are taken by the League of Arab States because Western sanctions and American pressure are firmly exerted on these countries. For example, there is a bill in Congress against the normalization of relations with Syria titled "Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023."

This project is a way to put pressure on Syria's partners to prevent large investments.

Furthermore, there are effects and damages left by the war… But the Syrian government is exerting efforts to improve people's lives. For example, the recent decision issued by the Central Bank allowed   Syrian traders to use foreign exchange spot transactions in order to import products.

This is a positive step forward and will make a noticeable impact.

What are the challenges facing Russia's participation in the reconstruction process in Syria?

Firstly, there is a lack of capabilities to finance investments due to the military operation in Ukraine.

Secondly, the presence of penalties that prevent bank transfers of funds.

The two sides will exert efforts to find appropriate procedures to provide the requested progress by using national currencies, but it is noteworthy to mention that there is a critical inflation of the Syrian pound.

This is a reason why the process is considered a great challenge for Russian participation.

However, we are optimistic and seek cooperation, not only bilaterally, but also multilaterally with Iran, for example, and possibly with some other countries from the Arab world. This will take place on the basis of the regional level for the reconstruction of Syria, if it emerges.

What is the impact of the sanctions imposed on Syria and its allies, Russia and Iran, on the ability to respond to Syria's support requirements?

It has a negative impact, of course, and creates great challenges, but at the same time, it creates possibilities and prospects.

We are exerting efforts to find appropriate ways and implement joint projects, and it is possible for Russia here to use a security matrix that matches its capabilities in Syria, through the Russian military police present there with the approval of the Syrian legitimate government of President Al-Assad.

These forces play an important and positive role, not only in finding solutions to security issues, but also in providing an appropriate and positive climate to revive the life and economic reality in different governorates, and this is a very important factor that we can use in the process of implementing joint multilateral projects.

The Syrians ask a common question after every Israeli aggression on Syrian territory. What is Moscow's position about these repeated attacks? Why Russia does not participate in countering the attack or activating the S300 system?

I am not a military expert, but in general, we follow these attacks, and there is continuous military coordination between the Russian army and the Syrian Arab army and between both security services at different levels.

We support the steadfastness of the Syrian people, and we still stand by them.

Moscow played a major role in the rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara through the formation of the Quartet. How do you evaluate the road map that has been developed?

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Russia still plays a key role in this important file, but we must take into account the existence of the legitimate interests of brotherly Syria. 

There is a Turkish occupation of the north of the country, and this hinders the decision to normalize relations, even with Russian support.

President Al-Assad had spoken clearly during the Jeddah summit that Turkish forces must first withdraw from north Syria to start the process of normalization between the two countries, and as I mentioned earlier, this matter was discussed during President Al-Assad's recent visit to Moscow, and this issue is considered important in terms of reconstruction in Syria because it is possible that it opens regional horizons to support this process with the participation of Arab countries.

You said in one of your articles: "As a leading external actor in the Syrian conflict, Russia now has the ability to contribute to bringing a peaceful settlement in Idlib." What is your perception of the features of this settlement?

This point is very important, and in my opinion, as an expert, this matter could become an integral part of the map of work to normalize relations between Syria and Turkey, taking into account the current presence of Turkish observers in Idlib and the presence of the opposition forces allied to Turkey.

There is also an issue related to the non-extension of the Security Council’s decision to allow some access of humanitarian aid through the Bab Al-Hawa crossing, but despite that, the Syrian government has stated its willingness to grant this possibility on its sovereign terms, and this is a new and very important factor for finding solutions to the Idlib problem, which in my point of view involves three scenarios.

The first is for Idlib to remain a gray zone, which is unacceptable not only for Damascus, but for Ankara as well, because Idlib will remain the main entry point of weapons, militants, and criminals into Turkish territory, and this will create many problems. As for the second scenario, Idlib will join Turkish control, and I think it won’t be acceptable for Turkey. This option will cost Ankara large expenses that could crush up the Turkish economy, which is already weak and vulnerable, and we saw how Erdogan made his political tour to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE in order to obtain investments.

In any case, Russia will support all efforts to find solutions to the Idlib problem, especially the security issues. Frequently shells are fired from Idlib against the neighboring areas, such as Latakia and Qardaha, causing victims, injuries, and various damages.

You wrote a book titled "The Economy impact of the Syria crisis, Lessons and Prospects." What are the economic lessons that Syria should have learned from the war?!

The first lesson is that the victory over terrorism is due to the steadfastness of the Syrian people first and then the support of the allies, Russia, Iran, and the Lebanese resistance.

The people's support for the government and the President in the most difficult times and in the face of foreign interference and occupation and other negative factors was the guarantee of preserving the sovereignty of the state, compared to the authorities that fell in other countries in the Arab world, such as Egypt.

Syria has remained a sovereign country despite all the difficulties and challenges, and this deserves respect.

The Syrians have taught the world that it is impossible to overthrow legitimate authority if it is popularly supported, and many countries will understand this, for good, such as the Gulf countries.

How do you assess the economic situation in Syria today? Is there a prospect of recovery soon?

The economic situation today is difficult because of the sanctions, the damages, and the great losses, and even the crisis in Lebanon has greatly affected it because there are financial and economic contacts between the two neighboring countries. However, I am optimistic now that Syria has returned to the Arab family. Gradually, this will open wide possibilities for support, coordination, and reconstruction. This is a key to finding ways to settle the crisis politically, finding solutions to the humanitarian crisis, and improving the people's living conditions, which is the most important thing right now.

The third chapter of your book deals with the attempts of the Damascus government to create a "war economy" as you called it, in order to avoid the complete social and economic collapse of the state... What are the features of this economy and do you think it succeeded in the experiment?

Tough question.

Of course, there is a collapse of economic unity as a result of the crisis, terrorist attacks, foreign intervention, the presence of ISIS, and other factors.

However, this collapse is partial and not complete. Today, there are several economies in Syria.

The first is the national economy represented by the legitimate government, and the second is located in the areas controlled by the Kurds, and it is very necessary to find a solution to this problem. As an expert, I want to say that it is possible to give these areas decentralization while preserving the sovereignty of the whole of Syria.

Syria will not become a federal state, this is a red line for Syrian authorities, and we respect that, but a key must be found to solve this problem economically. There is also the economy of northern Syria, which is controlled by the Turks, and small Idlib.

It is necessary to unite these economies within a single national economy, and Russia will support this.

In the fifth and final chapter of your book, you refer to "Prospects for Stability after the War and Building a New Syria." What are the challenges that Syria might face? Are there chances of agreeing on a path for Syria's exit from the crisis as long as the war is raging in Ukraine?

President Al-Assad always says that the primary goal is not only reconstruction but also sustainable development. This is consistent with the theory of "building modern Syria" before the crisis. It is necessary to revive that theory in order to move forward, and this is very important, on the popular and governmental levels.

The entry of brotherly Syria into this new stage requires several circumstances and many conditions, represented by the formation of the international regional base to support this process, which requires the participation of Arab countries, Iran, and Turkey, as well as allies from outside the region, such as China, India, and Brazil.

The sanctions of the Arab League, which have been in effect since 2011, must also be abolished, and this requires a firm Arab position in the face of US sanctions and pressures.

There is also a pre-requisite… It is the end of the Turkish and American occupations, then the reunification of economies in Syria, and the start of a comprehensive national dialogue in the country.

As for the other part of the question, of course, there is a link between the two crises, for example in terms of food security. 

There are currently difficulties in transporting wheat and Syrian needs across the Black Sea, in addition to the position of the Ukrainian regime and the negative interference of foreign powers, especially Western ones.

In conclusion, I would like to confirm that all the talk about Russia reducing its operating forces in Syria is absolutely incorrect. Russia will remain in Syria to support it in all respects and to provide conditions conducive to the reconstruction process.