With the onset of winter, the Ukrainian army has switched its language, now acknowledging a shift to a defensive posture along the military lines separating its armed forces from those of Russia. This comes after the military and political leadership of the country have spent the past six months talking up a successful 'counteroffensive' against Russia. They are now obliged to admit in practice, if not in words, the failure of their 'counter-offensive'. President Volodymyr Zelensky told an interview with the Associated Press on December 1 that as winter approaches, a new phase of the armed conflict with Russia is beginning. "Winter as a whole is a new phase of the war," he stated.

US media as well is acknowledging the failed counteroffensive, if only in words. On December 11, the New York Times published an extensive analysis of the state of the war in Ukraine headlined, 'US and Ukraine search for a new strategy after failed counteroffensive'. It writes, "The push for a fresh approach comes after Ukraine’s months-long counteroffensive failed in its goal of retaking territory lost to the invading Russian army, and after [recent] weeks of often tense encounters between top American officials and their Ukrainian counterparts."

On November 30, Reuters reported Zelensky announcing the beginning of construction of a complex of defensive fortifications stretching from the Donbass region in the former eastern Ukraine to areas of central Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal reported on December 1 that the priority for Zelensky's government for the construction of a wall will be the Donbass region, where Russian forces are making steady progress in pushing Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of the capital city of the now-Russian Donetsk Republic. Ukraine has pounded the city and surrounding settlements with artillery, mortars and small arms fire since the spring of 2014 (even during the early stages when the Donbass region of which Donetsk is a part was still formally part of Ukraine!).

The eight years of attacks against Donetsk and the broader Donbass, beginning in 2014, were a failed effort to quash a popular rebellion against the far-right coup which took place in Kiev in February 2014. Current fighting in Donetsk is centered in and around the small city of Avdiivka, located only some 25 kilometers from Donetsk city center.

It is being reported in Ukraine that additional fortifications will be erected in places along the nearly 1,000 km border with Belarus. 

A lot of funding will be required for all this announced construction work, and this is certainly beyond the means of Zelensky's government. So, media talk says part of the funding--for 'second' and 'third' defense lines—is expected and hoped to come from private capital in the country. However, it is highly doubtful that private businesses will seriously 'invest' in such works, particularly at a time when Western media and governments are acknowledging that the nearly two-year Ukrainian military effort against Russia, extensively funded and equipped by NATO countries, has faltered. 

The 'European Wall' dream

Back when Petro Poroshenko was president of post-coup Ukraine (2014-2019), he and the leading figure of the 2014 'Maidan' coup movement, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, were touting the project to build a wall along the Russian border, using the high-profile name of 'European Wall'. Four billion hryvnias (app. U.S.$110 million) were allocated for the project. Over the period 2015-2019, only a few kilometers of mesh fencing were erected and several kilometers of shallow ditches were dug. Most of the allocated funds were stolen or otherwise went missing. 

In 2018, People's Deputy of Ukraine Olena Sotnyk criticized the progress of construction works following an inspection at the border. She called the whole project "a pit worth four billion hryvnias". 

It seems evident that this description from some five years ago still fits the drawn-out, fortifications project. Unlike Russia, Ukraine does not have the capacity on its own to finance and implement an infrastructure project of this scale, nor does it even have the manpower to build it. According to Zelensky's plan, if we may so generously call it a 'plan', approximately 1,700 km of fortifications will have to be built for the first line of defense alone. By comparison, the famous 'Maginot Line' built in France during the 1930s in anticipation of another war with Germany was 400 km long and took 12 years to construct. (Despite all the work, the line did little to protect the French against the advanced weaponry and military strategies of the Nazi armies.) 

In Finland, the 'Mannerheim Line' was built during the 1930s and 1940s to defend against the Soviet Union's Red Army. It was about 130 km long and took several decades, in stages, to build. Ultimately, this line also failed when the Red Army invaded Finland in early 1940 in order to better protect the Soviet Union from military invasion via the waters and adjacent shorelines of the Gulf of Finland. Finnish resistance during the 'Winter War' lasted a few months. The vast bulk of the Mannerheim Line comprised trenches and other, simple field fortifications. Bunkers along the line were small and thinly spread out; the line had hardly any artillery. (The Finnish government of the day formally supported the invasion of the Soviet Union by Nazi Germany in June 1941.)

Building defenses in harsh winter conditions

The main military problem today for Ukraine is the land in the combat regions with Russia, namely, the earth is frozen during winter. Russia built its defensive fortifications during the preceding summer, fully expecting them to hold. Ukraine presumably anticipated better results from its 'counteroffensive', which begun in June, and therefore did not build substantial defensive lines when the ground was still easy to dig.

Russian military observer Gennady Alekhin (a reserve colonel in the Russian armed forces and a former Ukraine army officer), explained to Ukraine.ru in early December, "As our officers with whom I have had the opportunity to communicate tell us, the trenches of the Ukraine Armed Forces (AFU) are not dug to a required height; they are only half-dug. Their shelters largely consist of 'foxholes', which only provide shelter during warm weather. They also have very few equipped dugouts because the constant rotations of soldiers and units does not allow the necessary time to build or repair them quickly. 

"There is the added fact of the dangers when the AFU rotates its personnel. Those who rotate to the rear mine their trenches before leaving in order to prevent Russian troops from capturing them. Ukrainian replacements arrive and are sometimes blown up in the seemingly 'safe' trenches they are re-occupying because they were, quite simply, not warned of the dangers awaiting them." 

Gennady Alekhin also notes the difference in winter uniforms between the two armies, which has traditionally been a problem in all Western military operations in the vast, wintry lands of Ukraine and Russia. "A Russian soldier knows that he will be dressed for the winter season, with quality equipment and warm clothing and footwear. He won't be issued a poor overcoat, as was the case with Germans soldiers in 1941 on the approaches to Moscow. 

"Ukrainian fighters rely on the help of volunteers buying clothes for them at their own expense. Those without volunteer help are ofttimes left to freeze in summer clothing." He explains further that the Ukrainian military is often being supplied with Western military uniforms that are not designed to be used for living and sleeping on frozen ground for weeks on end.

Ukrainian generals accuse the US of poor and improper military advice in the planning of the Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' launched in June 2023, which is now officially recognized as failed. The Washington Post published a detailed, two-part feature report on December 4 on the subject, which has been cited by the Ukrainska Pravda media outlet. (Part one is here; part two is here.) Among other things, the Post report details the extensive involvement of US and British militaries in directing Ukraine's war effort. 

The Post explains, "The Ukrainian, American, and UK militaries conducted eight significant tabletop war games to create an offensive strategy". It goes on to explain that top Ukrainian military officials came to dismiss the war games. "All these methods … you can take them neatly and throw them away, you know?" a senior Ukrainian said of the war-game scenarios. "Throw them away because it doesn’t work like that now."

The US generals went so far as to instruct the Ukrainian military to adopt terrorist tactics. The Post writes, "During one visit to Wiesbaden [the US military base named after the adjacent German city], General Mark A. Milley, then chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke with Ukrainian special operations troops — who were training with American Green Berets — in the hope of inspiring them ahead of operations in enemy-controlled areas. 'There should be no Russian who goes to sleep without wondering if they’re going to get their throat slit in the middle of the night,' Milley said, according to an official with knowledge of the event. 'You gotta get back there, and create a campaign behind the lines.'"

Military conscription intensifies

Martin Brest, a representative of the Ukrainian NGO 'Economic Front', was reported to have recently said on Telegram that some 4.5 million Ukrainian men are currently evading military conscription. He says the only way to force them to come to the military recruitment centers has been to block their bank cards and unblock them only after a visit to the military enlistment office. 

German Bundestag deputy Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU) called in early December for Ukrainian refugees residing in EU countries to be forced into military service. "There are more than 600,000 of them in the EU--able-bodied Ukrainian men who are evading military service. In Germany alone, there are 220,000 of them," the German MP told an interview with Die Welt, as reported by Ukrainian media.

Rallies of wives and mothers of Ukrainian servicemen have been held in Ukrainian cities demanding that a time limit for military service be set. Many Ukrainian soldiers have been serving for several years and discharges are being delayed or outright opposed. 

The former social policy minister of Ukraine, Andriy Reva, says that conscripted people perceive entry into Ukraine’s army as a one-way ticket. "Two years pass, and they begin to realize that they have no prospects to rest, to quit the army - no. This is occurring as their human strength is at its limit. What are their prospects? Either you will be seriously wounded and be written out of active service through the current system of military medical commissions... or you will die. It is a one-way ticket." According to him, civilians are well aware of these prospects and are trying their best to avoid a death sentence, to which service in the AFU is equated.

Western media is beginning to acknowledge Ukraine's conscription crisis. The Washington Post devoted an article to the subject on December 6, titling it, 'Ukraine cracks down on draft-dodging as it struggles to find troops'.

'Ukraine's army becoming a NATO army'

At a meeting of a newly formed 'NATO-Ukraine Council' on November 29, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told journalists "We are in many ways becoming a de facto NATO army in terms of our technical capabilities, approaches and principles of army management." Kuleba continued, "Defending Europe without Ukraine is a futile task; you cannot do it for one simple reason — we have the strongest, most battle-hardened army in Europe."

Another Ukrainian nationalist MP and former 'Euromaidan' activist, Oleksiy Honcharenko, has written on his Telegram channel that in order not to lose US aid, Ukraine should actually sell its soldiers into service with the armies of Washington and its subordinates. "It is time to change strategy; it is time to offer the US a military alliance in which we commit to participate in any US military conflict."

He continues, "In exchange for security guarantees and economic investments, Ukraine should offer to Japan and Taiwan a military alliance in which we commit to participation in the defense of these two countries against a possible Chinese attack. We should offer to France that we introduce our troops into African countries controlled by France in exchange for technology and military support." 

But Ukraine's Western allies appear in no hurry to prop up the dying Ukrainian economy. In December, Ukraine commenced another round of price hikes due to the consequences of the blockade of Ukraine's western borders by truck carriers in Poland and Slovakia. 

Truck carriers in the two countries want changes to the special program that allows truck shipments originating in Ukraine to cross through their countries to western Europe. They say this is bankrupting their transport businesses, Reuters explains on December 11, "Polish truckers have been blockading four of the eight road crossings between the two countries since early November in protest against Ukrainian drivers getting permit-free access to the European Union… Thousands of trucks carrying commercial goods have been backed up for weeks at Poland's border crossings with Ukraine because of the protests, which began on November 6."

The carriers have been joined by protesting farmers in Poland who are demanding an end to the big influx of cheaper grain from Ukraine into European markets. 

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said recently he would demand that the European Commission cancel the transportation visa-free zone for Ukraine. Blockades by Polish truckers and farmers at the country's border with Ukraine have caused considerable damage to the already fragile Ukrainian economy.

The deputy head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, Denys Marchuk, says that the prices of imported fuel and food are expected to rise due to the border blockades. According to him, if the blockades continue, they will pull the whole price chain of foodstuffs upward. As Ukraine suffers huge losses in its economy, this situation can only worsen for the Zelensky administration in Kiev. These economic conflicts can easily escalate into political clashes, especially if they provoke physical clashes at the borders and protest rallies inside Poland and other EU countries. 

There is even a risk that neighboring countries may completely close their borders with Ukraine.

The 'best kept' secret of Western aid to Ukraine 

Even the aid that Kiev is receiving from the United States largely ends up back in the home country. This is 'the best-kept secret' about US military aid to Ukraine (and other, Western aid). The funds approved by lawmakers to arm Ukraine do not go directly to Ukraine but are spent in the US to manufacture new weapons and replace the weaponry sent to Kiev from US stockpiles.

The Washington Post published a twisted commentary on December 4 arguing that the huge sums being sent to Ukraine for it to fight a war with Russia are actually something of a "bargain" for the US. It writes, "Altogether, the US share [of military assistance to Ukraine] amounts to less than one-third of all outside funding directed to helping Ukraine stave off Russia’s onslaught. If you measure each donor country’s contribution against its gross domestic product, the US burden is less than that of some 20 other countries."

"The cost of deploying US troops to defend vulnerable NATO allies against a nuclear-armed power is imponderable. It would surely… dwarf Congress’s appropriations for Ukraine." And it adds further, "If you narrow down [post-9/11 military spending] to just the two years 2007 and 2008--a period of heavy fighting by US troops roughly equivalent to the nearly two-year span since Russia invaded Ukraine--Washington’s support for Ukraine is still slight by comparison."

Another report in the Post, this one dated November 29, is headlined, "Ukraine aid’s best-kept secret: Most of the money stays in the U.S.A." The report praises the military assistance being sent to Ukraine, because this is "reviving" military production in the United States proper. "Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans, one analysis found." 

"In other words, as happens with foreign military aid, our aid to Ukraine is not only creating American jobs but also reinvigorating our dangerously atrophied defense industrial base. Senator Vance said in October that 'The condition of the American defense industrial base is a national scandal. Repairing it is among our most urgent priorities'. Well, our aid to Ukraine is doing exactly that."

Oleksiy Arestovich, a former, principal advisor to Zelensky from December 2023 to January 2023, stated the other day that the West is not yet able to compete militarily with the countries of the global South. According to him, the West is not ready for a war with Russia nor with the Global South because, unlike the Russian Federation, the Western countries have not kept their military technology and industries on par with their targeted rivals. "What kind of war are we talking about? The West showed up to the war in Ukraine with its pants down. It turned out to be an emperor without clothes. It is not capable of fighting this war and winning it," he said. 

According to Arestovich, the West is risking "committing suicide" amid its rising tensions and clashes with the Global South (by which he means China, India and the countries of Latin American and Africa). "I see less and less chances of the West winning in a clash with the Global South and East," Arestovich wrote.

As this brutal war continues, Ukraine’s authorities are continuing efforts to become a Western outpost and join the West's rising threats and clashes with the Global South. They are offering to sell their own citizens as foot soldiers to the West and have gone so far as to offer to attack military production and supply in Syria and Iran under the scurrilous claim that these two countries are providing significant weaponry to Russia. (Of note, in passing, is the fact that Russia has never threatened to attack the countries such as Turkey and South Korea that are supplying Ukraine with weapons.)

Kiev's military actions have proven ineffective, even on its own territory, let alone elsewhere in the world. Ukraine fears losing its role as a tool for Western capitalism because the country's kleptocratic rulers benefit greatly from the wealth and privileges they accrue from Western aid.