Western think-tankers and “experts” write excessively about the region, but they generally contaminate their analyses with their own desires or those of their benefactors. Their ideas are often tainted with contempt for the natives they cover and their assessments harbor a unique disdain.

Even as the Biden regime continues Trump’s inhumane “maximum pressure” campaign, designed to create as much suffering and casualties among ordinary Iranians as possible, western analysts speculate whether Iran will agree to appease the US before or after President-elect Ebrahim Raisi assumes office. They wonder whether Iran will “strike a deal” before the start of the new administration, so, the argument goes, Ayatollah Raisi could take credit for the subsequent economic benefits and blame outgoing President Hassan Rouhani as well.   

This childish analysis is founded upon the orientalist premise that Iranian politics are simply Machiavellian and do not take into account issues of sovereignty or national interest. This projection upon Iran of what may be the current state of western politics today fails to explain why in such an allegedly treacherous political environment Rouhani would agree to such a deal for which he will be blamed while the incoming President reaps the benefits.    

These “experts” fail to comprehend that Iran’s position may be based on principle since in their warped worldview, non-western “regimes” are void of morality and uninterested in principles. The fact that Iran has already given significant concessions to reach a nuclear deal and is unwilling to appease Godfather-like figures such as Trump or Biden who want more than what was agreed upon, is almost impossible for them to comprehend as an act founded upon dignity and sovereignty. 

Most western analysts are uncritical of their leaders who target civilians and are unwilling to abide by agreed upon commitments (unless it’s Trump). They expect Iran to inevitably yield more concessions and, when it understandably refrains from doing so, they and the western political establishment in unison audaciously blame Iran for stonewalling and increasing tensions.

Though morally dubious to say the least, this attitude is expected. Since generally speaking they are funded by powerful Atlanticist institutions that shape global narratives and strive to preserve western domination. Many such “experts” internalize these exceptionalist narratives so thoroughly that no atrocity, however shocking, can shake their unshakable faith in western moral and civilizational superiority.

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Taking provocations head-on

Nevertheless, the world is rapidly changing and the US no longer commands the feared authority that it once enjoyed. Despite the fact that US-led precision guided sanctions, aimed at destroying Iran’s social fabric, have caused massive suffering and discontent and will continue to do so in the months ahead, the Islamic Republic of Iran will persevere and continue to retaliate across the board.  

Western analysts will continue to see any Iranian discontent as animosity towards the political order and a sign of imminent collapse, as has been the tradition for over the past four decades. However, what they fail to see is the real story, which is that the foundations of the US regional security constellation are beginning to shake. 

Mohammed bin Salman’s western backed genocidal war against Yemen has failed miserably, the NATO-led dirty war on Syrian has achieved nothing but mass suffering, the apartheid regime’s war on Gazans has exposed enormous vulnerabilities, the continued US occupation in Syria and Iraq has cemented contempt, and the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan signals US vulnerability and exhaustion. Since the post-9/11 US-led onslaught against the region, the Iranians and their allies have ensured the cost of US occupation and hegemony would be devastating and unsustainable. This is the lasting legacy of General Qasem Soleimani.

Hence, the US has a fateful decision to make, but the arrogance of the Empire prevents its affiliated analysts and experts from comprehending reality. The US is overstretched, nearly bankrupt, and facing unprecedented divisions at home, yet it still wants to defeat the Resistance, Russia, and China. This endeavor is doomed to fail.

The US can either end its intransigence and remove all JCPOA linked sanctions, stop the war on Yemen, treat Palestinians as human beings, and end the illegal occupation of Syria and Iraq and thus fundamentally change the dynamics of its relationship with the region, or it will dig itself deeper into a hole, a metaphorical grave for its Empire. There is little doubt that in their arrogance, most analysts and experts will continue to provide hope for unattainable victory and advice on how to finally conquer the mirage. As is true with all dying empires, they will help pave the road to Hell.