Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s notorious brand of Hindu nationalist rule has sown deep divisions in Indian communities, helped consolidate Hindu votes by encroaching on minority rights, and created a climate of impunity for the ruling government with no attention to dissent. One of the drawbacks of ruling with an iron-fist is that the same brand of polarizing politics can unite divergent opposition parties, and challenge a single leader’s claim to “democracy.”

26 Indian parties recently announced an alliance: the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). It comes on the back of Modi’s firmly consolidated Hindu supremacist rule, presenting fresh incentives for the hodgepodge alliance to prepare some ground for next year’s general elections. This unlikely consolidation of opposition parties is assisted in part by a weakened Indian Congress party, long dismissed by Modi as an opposition outlier in Indian politics. However, Congress’s desire to strategize against Modi in conjunction with allies marks a noticeable departure from the ideological incompatibilities and power struggles that have kept an opposition alliance on the back burner. Together, the message is clear: Modi’s Hindu nationalist edifice is far from impenetrable.

Violent oppression of minority rights is adding to Modi’s long-term vulnerabilities. His ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a track-record of covering up fragrant rights violations against minorities, operating under its Nazi-inspired, ideological parent: the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Crackdowns against Indian Muslims continue to intensify without political accountability, and Modi’s characteristic silence against coordinated hate crimes and vandalism appears to have given the opposition a wake-up call for rejuvenation. 

At least 130 people have died in ethnic violence erupting out of India’s Manipur state, all under Modi’s watch: legions of citizens displaced as social media pressure reminds Indian democracy that the law ought to be enforced. Even Modi’s recent visit to the United States was marked by prolonged acts of denial, and his insistence that documented discrimination against Indian minorities was a lie.

The new opposition alliance appears to have sensed the temperature at the right time. First, “INDIA” is willing to cash in on the government’s climate of impunity against minorities and can use that strategy to make opposition inroads in the mainstream. Based on a document issued at a recent alliance leaders meeting, the coalition stated it had “come together to defeat the hatred and violence being manufactured against minorities” under the Hindu nationalist politics of the Modi-led government. 

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An electoral challenge for Modi or not, it is politically counterproductive for him to go off on a tangent and claim to work towards a climate of equality for minorities, chiefly Muslims. Any such intent arrives at the expense of his hard-right vote bank, where supremacy for the Hindu majority reigns supreme. 

The BJP leader has already been found “directly responsible” for the “climate of impunity” that enabled the deadly 2002 Gujrat massacre against Indian Muslims. His rule at the center has also seen India’s state institutions adopt a softer tone towards probing Modi’s record of communal violence, used by the populist leader to block scrutiny that is critical of his past or the present state of minority oppression under BJP. It is here that the “INDIA” alliance, focusing partly on Modi’s human rights weak points, may dent some of Modi’s overwhelming popularity base in due course, even if an electoral showdown remains far off for now.

Modi’s successive electoral victories in the recent past also put a premium on stamping-out opposition resistance, effectively ensuring that a divisive and deeply controversial electoral campaign strategy kept left-leaning opponents at the fringes. India’s political press itself remains deeply involved in the lionization of Modi because critical coverage of BJP’s rights violations and discrimination of minorities fails to stick for long.

As the new opposition alliance came together, it took the full force of social media outrage to evoke rhetorical sympathy from Modi on the blatant harassment and naked parading of women in the northeastern state of Manipur. From a campaigning viewpoint, there is no credibility to Modi’s claim that the perpetrating mob will be held to the full force of the law when it is the BJP’s neglect of the same laws that have empowered Hindu mobs to assert their brutality. 

"The law will take its strongest steps, with all its might. What happened to the daughters of Manipur can never be forgiven," said Modi as he appealed to party ministers, some of whom have a reputation for refusing to take such violence head-on.

As a result, the newly formed INDIA alliance is looking to break new ground in Modi’s Hindu nationalist appeal at the right time. For effective gains in complex India, it is critical for the alliance to supplement its focus on minorities with critical representation from top figures in the polls. For starters, it remains pertinent for Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi to turn around his disqualification from contesting the elections, following a jail sentence that was seen by Modi’s critics as politically opportune to the BJP, and a move timed to the advantage of his political capital. 

Ironically, it is the byproduct of Modi’s own ruthless politics that a newfound alliance is in a position to pool together resources, refusing to sit on the bench and muster a credible fight.