Netanyahu's scenarios of regional aggression might be derailed by inner strife
What is certain is that, for the first time since the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995, Netanyahu comprehends his limitations of power.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s crafty political communication campaigns over the last four decades have created at least two results: The first was a right-wing radicalization process amongst more than half of the segments of Jews in occupied Palestine, while the second, possibly a by-product of the first, was the meaning and ramifications of the chanting of the right-wing mob and staunch supporters that Netanyahu is (in Hebrew) “Bibi Melekh Yisrael”, “Bibi Is the King of Israel” linking him directly to the “Kings of Judea and Israel” before a millennium BC.
But Netanyahu himself, it is believed, has developed a dual psychological approach following his brother’s (Yonatan "Yoni" Netanyahu) killing by Palestinian fighters of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – External Operations (PFLP-EO) under orders of Dr. Wadie Haddad back in 1976.
Yonatan was an officer who commanded the “Sayeret Matkal” (Elite Commando Unit) during “Operation Entebbe”, an operation to rescue hostages held at Entebbe Airport in Uganda in 1976. It was reported that 102 of the 106 hostages were rescued, but Yonatan Netanyahu was killed in action—the only fatality during the operation.
Following the death of Yonatan, Benjamin Netanyahu developed two conflicting attitudes: on the one hand, an inferiority complex that he isn’t the “military commander-hero” who also “died and sacrificed himself” in an “operation for the sake of Israel” like his brother, and on the other hand, his admiration of his brother generated in his psyche a hateful approach toward Palestinians, which stems from his inner-urge to revenge the killing of his brother by brutalizing Palestinians for decades.
Over time, he managed to cushion himself with “generals” and quarrel with others, namely Ehud Barak, former Israeli Prime Minister and the most decorated Israeli army officer. In the last decade, however, more army officers joined political parties (and not Netanyahu’s Likud) such as ּBenny Gantz, Moshe Yaalon, and Gabi Ashkenazi, among others. Netanyahu, already a right-wing extremist, after winning the 2022 elections, and in order to implement his “long overdue annexation of 30% of the occupied West Bank)" chose the most fascist path when he constructed a coalition with the religious Zionist Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
The path of Netanyahu’s government to adopt “judiciary reforms”, enabling his government to appoint High Court Judges, has infuriated the other camp led by Gantz and Lapid (secular center right). Despite the fact that over the decades (since the Nakba in 1948 and the occupation of the second part of "Eastern") Palestine in 1967, the occupation army has been mythologically branded as “Tzvah Ha’am”; the people’s Army and melting pot mainly based on the fact that army conscription is obligatory to every male and female (apart from the religious exemptions).
Upon the formation of Netanyahu’s coalition, the Gantz camp promised not to be out of “government” for a long time, and following the process of adopting the judiciary reforms they started, in an unprecedented manner, they turned to use subversive discourse against Netanyahu’s coalition, instigate against their policies, network and lobby the occupation army against Netanyahu’s policies.
Though they are officially outside the military system, the proximity of the center-right secular generals to the army and its generals and past juniors made it easier for them to mobilize the street against Netanyahu since the beginning of 2023. The real triangle ruling the Israeli system emerged: The military, Shabak, and Mossad. The latter allowed its workers and for the first time ever to protest, banning them however from speaking with the media.
Mainstream Israeli media, however, have been (spin-doctoring) that “there is no Israeli army without the Air Force” as the number of pilots boycotting the IAF is increasing in protest of the judicial reforms. Netanyahu’s plight and possibly his plans to strike Iran seem to have piled up as 37 reserve pilots refused to comply with their training schedules in protest of Netanyahu's proposed judiciary reforms. Netanyahu’s forte, namely amongst right-wing mob and colonialist settlers he cultivated, seems to be unable to provide the needed support to hold his coalition amid the escalating demonstrations led by the likes of Gantz and Lapid and their friends-generals.
The current deadlock demonstrates Netanyahu’s limitation of power in front of the real rulers of “Israel”, i.e. “the triangle of the security branches” of the occupation and their ability to interfere in political processes.
The apparent “separation of powers” never seemed more fragile than it is in the spring of 2023. The very “Branch” (military striking arm and namely the air force) Netanyahu has been using to implement his political practices against Palestinians (particularly in the Gaza Strip) and the neighboring countries (such as Syria, Iran, Lebanon, and possibly others) appears to be vocal in its disloyalty to him and possibly (paired with the economic instability) detesting to a certain extent his international relations policies especially in the region, albeit in a questionable and opaque manner.
What is certain is that, for the first time since the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995 by Yigal Amir; a right-wing Jewish religious extremist who took literally Netanyahu’s incitement against Rabin following his signing of the "Oslo Accords" with the PLO leadership under Yassir Arafat, Netanyahu (although shocked) comprehends his limitations of power.
Currently, the local and regional seems to be strongly interwoven to the extent that if Netanyahu thought to adopt his zero-sum game plan against Iran and carry out a strong (first) strike against Tehran as part of his fascist nuclear strategy, the very arm that he planned to be using (Israeli Air Force) seems to have derailed his plans from within in the foreseeable future. This will grant Rafael Grossi of the IAEA during his visit to Iran, who I believe is biased against Iran and submissive to the Zionist lobby, to seize the opportunity of Netanyahu’s weakness as he is being given a green light from the Biden administration to exploit Netanyahu’s plight and quickly facilitate a return of the US to the JCPOA seizing this unpredictable window of opportunity that Netanyahu provided them with.