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What does the future hold for Ukraine?

  • Fra Hughes Fra Hughes
  • Source: Al Mayadeen English
  • 20 Jun 2023 23:39
  • 1 Shares
6 Min Read

As the much-heralded Ukrainian spring (now summer) counter-offensive was announced, what does the future hold for Ukraine? Let's examine the possible outcomes of the Russian special military offensive.

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  • If the Ukrainian army appears to crumble facing imminent defeat, the question that arises is: Will Poland, which still dreams of reviving its previous empire, send troops officially to join the war?
    If the Ukrainian army appears to crumble facing imminent defeat, the question that arises is: Will Poland, which still dreams of reviving its previous empire, send troops officially to join the war?

The Russian Federation came to the aid of the two secessionist republics of Lugansk and Donetsk following their appeal for help to prevent an imminent potential massacre in the region, as Ukrainian fascist forces under the control and direction of the unelected coup regime installed by Joe Biden and Victoria Nuland, the American Ambassador to Ukraine in 2014, prepared to retake the regions by force.

Continuing America's policy of increasing the presence of NATO troops and armaments right up to the Russian Federation's border, was a clear breaking of commitments made by the West not to move NATO one inch further east following the fall of the Berlin Wall.

As usual, the West and its military and financial leaders and successive American administrations failed to honour their promises, such as Minsk agreements one and two, while they continue to prove deceitful and their guarantees nothing more than a tissue of lies designed to forestall any Russian reaction to current geopolitical events, while Moscow sleepwalks into a major armed conflict not of its own making, and for which it was unprepared and unwilling to engage in.

We have seen this strategy used to prevent a two-state solution in Palestine as the Oslo agreement was fundamentally designed to give Palestinians the semblance of a shadow government in waiting, while “Israel” then unchallenged in Palestine and uncondemned by the West sought to expand the illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank and consolidate its military occupation of the Palestinian territories.

A simple case of diplomatic chicanery designed to distract their perceived enemies, gain time and prepare for their ultimate geopolitical goals of domination with a continuation of Western hegemony and their new world order.

The war against the Russian Federation and the use of illegal unilateral coercive sanctions against countless sovereign nations has backfired on the West as the globe heads towards a new mutually beneficial multi-polar world.

The stated objectives of the special military operation in Ukraine were to denazify and disarm the fascist forces attacking eastern Ukraine, specifically the Donbass republics, Crimea, Kherson and Zaporozhye to prevent Ukraine from becoming a nuclear-armed member of NATO on Russia’s border, and to ensure a continuation of its neutrality status.

Joe Biden planned this present-day confrontation in 2014, and he has waited eight years to rearm, train, finance, and direct these neo-Nazis in Ukraine for just this reckless adventure. He is prepared to fight to the last Ukrainian; this is his forlorn efforts to destabilise Russia, force regime change as the West attempts to then balkanize the Russian Federation, install pro-Western leaders, and allow Western corporations to gain a foothold in absorbing Russian businesses and exploiting the natural resources of Russia, not for the benefit of the Russian people, but for the shareholders of Western capitalist big business.

They had hoped to destroy Russia and cherry-pick the best of its assets. They will fail, indeed they are already failing in their proxy war in Ukraine.

So where does the conflict stand now?

America, Britain, and the EU, through NATO, are escalating the war on a daily basis with new armaments, drones, tanks, HIMARS rocket launchers, storm shadow missiles, and the use of banned depleted uranium shells. The counter-offensive has failed, and if Ukrainians keep expending soldiers and munitions at their current rate, the war may soon be over.

Russia may stop at the natural barrier that separates east and west Ukraine, the Dnieper River, and hostilities could end there with Kherson, Kharkiv and Odessa again under Russian control.

The problem with this outcome is that it will leave western Ukraine still under the control of NATO and a vessel to further the American foreign policy of destablising Russia.

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America could rearm the neo-fascists, allow them to join NATO, and restart the war at any time. This would be the most advantageous to the West.

If the Ukrainian army appears to crumble facing imminent defeat, the question that arises is: Will Poland, which still dreams of reviving its previous empire, send troops officially to join the war? There are reliable reports that more than 20,000 Polish troops, under the guise of being paid mercenaries, are already involved on the front lines.

Poland has been incrementally building up its armed forces, now standing at 600,000 soldiers.

If they entered the war, Russia would face a greater challenge in holding the gains it won on the battlefield.

As NATO countries hold an emergency meeting on how to continue the conflict, we can expect more armaments and men to be sent to the front.

In order to fulfill Russia’s set goal of denazifying Ukraine, it might become necessary, due to the West's refusal to accede to peace talks, for the Russian Federation forces to pacify all of Ukraine, which would be a huge undertaking.

It is one thing to liberate pro-Russian regions in eastern Ukraine but quite another thing to occupy western Ukraine and potentially become embroiled in a protracted decades-long counter-insurgency campaign.

The West is losing the battle for Ukraine, but could it ultimately succeed in miring Russia in another military quagmire operation using up its resources, manpower, and finances in a decades-lasting conflict?

So we have three possible outcomes to this special military operation.

1.     A complete victory for Russia in eastern Ukraine and a cessation of hostilities at the Dnieper River, leaving the Ukraine army intact and future war inevitable.

2.     A total victory for Russia in Ukraine, disarming the neo-fascist junta, installing a new anti-fascist pro-neutrality government, pursuing Zelensky and other war criminals for their crimes against humanity and possibly entering into an endless counter-insurgency campaign, as America through Poland and other NATO allied bordering countries will continue the conflict.

3. The defeat of NATO in their Ukrainian proxy war and a rerun to the cold war.

In conclusion, it is difficult to foresee the outcome of this conflict, provoked as usual by American state greed.

The best solution is a quick end to the war with a total Russian victory.

The new multi-polar world order now taking shape will increase Russian and Chinese influence in the global south and lead to the further isolation of American influence on the world stage, furthering de-dollarisation of the value of American currency may bring an end to endless war as the world comes together to challenge the white Anglo-Saxon supremacy that has held so many in bondage for far too long.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Mayadeen’s editorial stance.
  • Poland
  • Nato
  • Ukraine crisis
  • counteroffensive
  • Russia
  • war in Ukraine
  • Spring counteroffensive
  • Ukraine
Fra Hughes

Fra Hughes

Journalist, author, and activist.

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