Dollar slips vs. euro as markets assess trade deals, tax bill
3 Min Read
The drop is driven by mounting concerns over a ballooning federal deficit, stalled trade negotiations, and global policy uncertainty.
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A man counts US$100 bills at the craft and art market in Lagos, Nigeria, on August 16, 2023. (AP)
The dollar weakened on Monday against the euro and Swiss franc as markets weighed concerns over a growing US budget deficit and uncertainty surrounding key trade negotiations.
Senate Republicans are pushing to pass President Donald Trump’s expansive tax cut and spending bill, despite internal party concerns over its projected $3.3 trillion addition to the national debt.
The greenback slipped 0.44% to 0.79475 against the Swiss franc, while the euro rose 0.28% to $1.17545. For the month, the dollar is on track to drop 3.4% against the franc, with the euro set to gain around 3.6% against the US currency.
"You have a weak dollar due to a potentially large increase in our budget deficit, and you have continued uncertainty around these tariff deals," said Eugene Epstein, head of structuring for North America at Moneycorp in New Jersey.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could still face significantly higher tariffs on July 9, even if they are actively negotiating. He noted that decisions on extensions would ultimately rest with President Trump.
Last week, Bessent confirmed that the US and China had resolved issues related to Chinese shipments of rare earth minerals and magnets, further amending a trade agreement originally reached in May in Geneva.
According to Epstein, "We had this positive news from the EU for a little bit and we had potential positive deals coming up, but then you had Trump doing a temporary about-face on Friday on Canada and so forth."
Canada tax pause and global currency moves
The dollar also slipped 0.19% to 144.33 against the Japanese yen on Monday, putting it on track to end the month nearly unchanged versus the yen.
In a move aimed at easing tensions with Washington, Canada paused the rollout of a new digital services tax targeting US tech giants just hours before it was set to take effect. The decision is seen as an effort to revive stalled trade talks between the two countries.
The Canadian dollar gained on the news, rising 0.36% to C$1.36 per US dollar and heading for its fifth consecutive monthly gain against the greenback.
The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies including the yen and euro, dipped 0.15% to 97.05. It’s on pace for its sixth straight monthly decline and is set to log its worst half-year performance since the 1970s.
"It's kind of rotating a game of musical chairs, whether it's the 'big beautiful bill', the trade deals, and then the Iran-Israel conflict. It's all like taking turns to be at center stage; once one thing passes and the other thing is focused on," Epstein noted.
Elsewhere, the British pound edged down 0.12% to $1.3698, while the Australian dollar climbed 0.52% to $0.6563.
