Al Mayadeen English

  • Ar
  • Es
  • x
Al Mayadeen English

Slogan

  • News
    • Politics
    • Economy
    • Sports
    • Arts&Culture
    • Health
    • Miscellaneous
    • Technology
    • Environment
  • Articles
    • Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Blog
    • Features
  • Videos
    • NewsFeed
    • Video Features
    • Explainers
    • TV
    • Digital Series
  • Infographs
  • In Pictures
  • • LIVE
News
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Sports
  • Arts&Culture
  • Health
  • Miscellaneous
  • Technology
  • Environment
Articles
  • Opinion
  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Features
Videos
  • NewsFeed
  • Video Features
  • Explainers
  • TV
  • Digital Series
Infographs
In Pictures
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • MENA
  • Palestine
  • US & Canada
BREAKING
Palestinian media: 'Israel' launches two airstrikes on eastern Khan Younis, Gaza.
Al Mayadeen’s correspondent in Gaza: Israeli occupation forces carry out demolitions in eastern Gaza City.
Venezuelan Foreign Ministry: The National Armed Forces will remain on alert and mobilized in the face of this extremely dangerous provocation.
Venezuelan Foreign Ministry: This is not a defense exercise, but rather a military aggression aimed at turning the Caribbean into a space for violence and US hegemony.
Venezuelan Foreign Ministry: The government of Trinidad and Tobago has surrendered the country's sovereignty to act as a military colony serving US interests.
Rapid Support Forces attack El-Fasher, west Sudan.
Al Mayadeen correspondent: One martyr and one wounded in an Israeli drone attack on the town of Hafir, west of Baalbek, eastern Lebanon.
Al Mayadeen correspondent: An Israeli drone fired three missiles in the vicinity of the town of Bodai, west of Baalbek.
Reuters: The Rapid Support Forces announced that they have taken over the headquarters of the Sudanese Armed Forces in al-Fasher.
Al Mayadeen correspondent: An Israeli drone strike targeted the town of Al-Qlailah, Southern Lebanon.

OPEC+ oil strategy challenges Trump’s domestic drilling agenda

  • By Al Mayadeen English
  • Source: News websites
  • 6 Oct 2025 21:10
4 Min Read

OPEC+ moves to undercut US shale production by boosting supply, complicating Donald Trump’s oil strategy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Listen
  • x
  • The sun sets behind an idle pump jack near Karnes City, USA, April 8, 2020. (AP)
    The sun sets behind an idle pump jack near Karnes City, USA, April 8, 2020. (AP)

A strategic push by OPEC+ to expand oil output is intensifying a global market share contest with the United States, complicating President Donald Trump’s efforts to maintain a balance between low gasoline prices and sustained profits for US shale drillers, analysts told RIA Novosti.

The oil alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is adopting an aggressive supply-side approach reminiscent of previous price wars, placing Trump’s oil strategy under pressure ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections.

OPEC+ strategy puts pressure on US oil industry

OPEC+, a coalition of 22 oil-producing countries, has announced two modest production hikes of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for October and November. However, the impact is magnified by the return of over 200,000 bpd of previously blocked Kurdish crude, signaling a growing supply glut.

“The OPEC+ strategy will be to drive crude below the $60 per barrel threshold, possibly into the low $50s, to inflict substantial pain on US drillers,” said John Kilduff, a veteran energy market analyst. “US capacity production will be damaged by drillers going bankrupt at those prices.”

The group’s latest moves come as US crude output reached a record 13.642 million bpd in July, a key milestone under Trump’s “drill baby, drill” policy. Yet, this production growth risks triggering the very market dynamics that OPEC+ is now leveraging to suppress competition.

What is the balance?

Trump faces a dual challenge: keeping fuel prices low for American consumers without undermining the profitability of US oil producers. While gasoline prices have fallen from their 2022 peak of $5.02 to an average of $3.13 per gallon, the drop, which Trump has taken credit for, is now a source of concern for the US shale sector.

Related News

US troops may miss paycheck by November 15: Bessent

China set to delay rare earths restrictions 1 year: Bessent

Kilduff warned that "approving US drilling leases without restraint is actually accelerating OPEC’s price suppression strategy," putting long-term shale viability at risk.

In Texas, a key hub for the US oil sector, industry sentiment has shifted. A recent Dallas Federal Reserve survey showed growing concern among energy executives who believe that crude prices below $60 per barrel are unsustainable.

Producers say that such levels fall "below replacement cost" and make it difficult to hedge production, potentially stalling investment and growth in the US oil patch.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, is currently trading around $65 per barrel. While Middle Eastern producers can profit at $10–15 per barrel, US shale producers require significantly higher prices to break even.

Saudi-UAE oil tactics target US market share

Analysts suggest that OPEC+ will not allow the US to dominate the global export market without resistance. American crude exports reached a record 7.63 million bpd in July, threatening the traditional customer base of Middle East exporters.

"OPEC+ isn't going to roll over and play dead," Kilduff said. “They are going to do their best to unravel American export dominance and wrest back the market share taken from them.”

The competition is further shaped by the personal and business ties between the Trump camp and Gulf leadership. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, has received a $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, while Donald Trump Jr.’s cryptocurrency firm also secured a $2 billion investment from a UAE-backed fund.

Political and business ties influence oil dynamics

In addition to investment flows, Trump’s business dealings with Gulf-based firms such as DarGlobal, a Saudi real estate developer, highlight the complexity of the US-Gulf relationship in shaping oil policy.

Despite OPEC+’s assertive moves, some analysts believe prices will remain within a stable band.

“Oil prices have been locked in the most extended trading range since the 1990s, holding between $60 and $65 per barrel for over a year,” said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. “This is a sweet spot where Middle Eastern producers make money, but US shale remains constrained.”

Flynn added that this may ultimately serve Trump’s political goals without fully derailing US oil production, suggesting that despite dissatisfaction among drillers, they are unlikely to abandon their political support for Trump in the 2026 elections.

Read more: OPEC+ to boost oil output again amid market weakness, internal rift

  • United States
  • Oil Production
  • OPEC+
  • oil supplies
  • Oil prices
  • Donald Trump

Most Read

From previous scenes of the Qassam Brigades targeting an Israeli D9 bulldozer with a Yassin 105 shell, east of Deir al-Balah. (Military Media of the Qassam Brigades)

US knew fatal Rafah blast cause was not Hamas op., says journalist

  • Politics
  • 20 Oct 2025
'Israel’s Digital Iron Dome: Weaponizing the web against Palestine

'Israel’s Digital Iron Dome: Weaponizing the web against Palestine

  • Technology
  • 24 Oct 2025
Abu Hamza, the spokesperson for the Al-Quds Brigades, during a speech televised on October 22, 2025 (Al-Quds Brigades Military Media)

Al-Quds Brigades' Abu Hamza mourns leaders, vows continued resistance

  • Politics
  • 22 Oct 2025
US missionary kidnapped in Niger capital, suspected taken toward Mali

US missionary kidnapped in Niger capital, suspected taken toward Mali

  • Africa
  • 23 Oct 2025

Coverage

All
War on Gaza

Read Next

All
Sheikh Naim Qassem speaks during an interview with Al-Manar TV, October 26, 2025 (Screenshot)
Politics

Hezbollah ready to face 'Israel' in case of war: Sheikh Naim Qassem

A Russian cargo train arrives at Astara Railway Wharf, March 2018 (IRNA)
Economy

Tehran, Moscow to finalize INSTC rail project next month

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf addresses the media after submitting his candidacy for the Islamic Republic's upcoming presidential election in Tehran on June 3, 2024 (AP)
Politics

UNSCR 2231 termination marks major win for Iran’s diplomacy: Qalibaf

ap
Politics

'Israel' killed 40 Palestinian children in West Bank since January: UN

Al Mayadeen English

Al Mayadeen is an Arab Independent Media Satellite Channel.

All Rights Reserved

  • x
  • Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Authors
Android
iOS