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OPEC release monthly report, expects rise in global oil demand

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
13 Nov 2023 18:36
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OPEC's monthly report highlights an increase in production among OPEC countries and overall global production as well as increases in Russian and US oil production.

Representatives of OPEC member countries attend a press conference after the 45th Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee and the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting in Vienna, Austria, on October 5, 2022. (AFP)

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has announced that it expects an increase in global oil demand by 2.5 million barrels per day pushing overall demand to 102.1 million bpd, according to its monthly report published on Monday.

"For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised upward marginally from the previous assessment to 2.5 mb/d, to average 102.1 mb/d," the report read.

For October OPEC's oil production increased by 80,000 bpd compared to September data.

"According to secondary sources, total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 27.90 mb/d in October 2023, higher by 80 tb/d, m-o-m. Crude oil output increased mainly in Angola, IR Iran and Nigeria, while production in Libya, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait decreased," the report read.

The organization originally encompassed 13 oil-producing countries, including Algeria, Angola, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela continues to be referred to as OPEC or OPEC-13.

Recently, several non-OPEC countries including, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, Sudan, and most significantly Russia, began to participate in the organization's policies, to form a loose grouping known as OPEC+. It is worth noting that these countries are still considered non-OPEC countries.

Review of non-OPEC countries

Russia, US, Brazil increase oil production

According to the report, the organization expected an increase in non-member states' oil production, which corresponds to 1.8 million bpd, raising overall production in non-OPEC states to 67.6 million bpd.

Although production in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) European and Asian states decreased in 2023, an increase in production in the United States, Russia, and Brazil "more than offset downward revisions."

OPEC also expects United States' oil and condensate production in 2023 to rise by 800,000 bpd increasing total US production to 12.8 million bpd.

Forecast for Russian production upped

According to its Monday report, OPEC has increased its projection for Russia's liquid production in 2023 by 80,000 bpd, now estimating an average of 10.6 million bpd for 2023.

"For 2023, Russian liquids production is forecast to drop by 0.4 mb/d to an average of 10.6 mb/d, revised up by about 80 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment. It is worth noting, that this takes into account all announced production adjustments of the countries in the DoC to the end of 2023," OPEC said in its report.

Moreover, the organization sys that liquids production in Russia increased by 85,000 bpd to an average of 10.8 million bpd, which includes "9.5 mb/d of crude oil and 1.3 mb/d of NGLs and condensate."

OCED commercial oil stocks drop

OCED has also seen a sharp decrease in commercially available oil stocks, as OPEC reports that these countries have lost 15.6 million barrels in September alone. This means that commercial oil stocks in OCED are below the five-year average by 118 million barrels.

"Preliminary September 2023 data show total OECD commercial oil stocks down by 15.6 mb, m-o-m. At 2,783 mb, they were 33 mb higher than the same time one year ago, but 118 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 184 mb below the 2015–2019 average," the report read.