US inflation hikes in July for first time in 13 months

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
11 Aug 2023 08:26

The US experiences its first inflation increase in over a year in July, despite the Federal Reserve's ongoing move toward higher interest rates.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., talks about the Build Back Better bill during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Friday, Dec. 10, 2021. (AP)

The US experienced a rise in inflation in July for the first time in over a year, even as the Federal Reserve continued its gradual move toward the highest interest rates seen in decades. Nevertheless, some economists are highlighting more positive indicators within the latest economic report.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday revealed a 3.2% increase in the overall cost of consumer goods in July 2023 compared to July 2022. This marked the first instance of inflation increasing in 13 months, following a 3% increase in June.

In the previous month's meeting, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, raised interest rates by a moderate degree, bringing them to their highest level in 22 years. Given the Federal Reserve's aim to keep US inflation under 2%, the logical expectation might be for more interest rate hikes to counter rising inflation. However, some financial experts are suggesting a more intricate scenario.

Laura Rosner-Warburton, a senior economist at the research firm MacroPolicy Perspectives, remarked, "This report contains indications that disinflation may continue. It implies that we may be at or very close to the peak in interest rates."

Other economists interviewed by US media are focusing on the "core" inflation index, a component of the BLS report that excludes food and fuel prices due to their volatile nature. The core inflation rate for July came in at 4.7%, slightly lower than June's 4.8%.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors won't convene in August; their next meeting is slated for September 20, which means another CPI report will have been published before they make any decisions.

The most recent economic assessment from the US Department of Commerce also paints a positive picture for the upcoming economic quarter, indicating that the US economy has sustained respectable growth in 2023. However, many investors are preparing for a potential recession, an outcome that most economists believe is likely within the next year, partly due to the elevated interest rates.

Adding to the uncertainty, Moody's recently downgraded the US federal government's credit rating from AAA to AA+, marking the second time it has done so. The international rating agency specifically cited political instability surrounding the debt ceiling and the willingness of US lawmakers to link a debt ceiling increase with specific policy demands.

This decision is anticipated to make it more challenging for the federal government to secure loans and could deter foreign investment, among other consequences.

US debt to grows $5bln per day

In a recent report, Bank of America said in a memo to clients that the United States' debt will grow by a whopping $5.2 billion daily for the next ten years.

The research note, released by the bank's chief financial advisor Michael Hartnett, relied on data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan federal agency, which forecasted that American debt will hit $50 trillion by 2033.

According to Hartnett, the number will be equivalent to giving every US citizen $15 each morning for ten consecutive years.

The country's debt will jump from 98% of GDP to 181% by 2053, CBO warned, placing them in the ballpark of rations only seen during WWII and the Covid pandemic.