Al Mayadeen English

  • Ar
  • Es
  • x
Al Mayadeen English

Slogan

  • News
    • Politics
    • Economy
    • Sports
    • Arts&Culture
    • Health
    • Miscellaneous
    • Technology
    • Environment
  • Articles
    • Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Blog
    • Features
  • Videos
    • NewsFeed
    • Video Features
    • Explainers
    • TV
    • Digital Series
  • Infographs
  • In Pictures
  • • LIVE
News
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Sports
  • Arts&Culture
  • Health
  • Miscellaneous
  • Technology
  • Environment
Articles
  • Opinion
  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Features
Videos
  • NewsFeed
  • Video Features
  • Explainers
  • TV
  • Digital Series
Infographs
In Pictures
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • MENA
  • Palestine
  • US & Canada
BREAKING
Hezbollah condemns terrorist blasts carried out against worshippers in Pakistan.
NATO: Decision to deploy additional forces to address the current situation in Kosovo.
Al Mayadeen correspondent reports more than 50 people were injured when a bomb exploded in the Mastung area of the Pakistani province of Balochistan.
Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib: The assassinations were scheduled to be carried out on Saturday with the aim of stirring up national and sectarian strifes in the country
Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib: A series of attempts to assassinate a number of Sunni scholars, judges, and IRGC officers was thwarted
Twin shootings in Rotterdam led to multiple deaths: Dutch police
Dutch Police: Rotterdam shooter arrested
US imposes fresh Sudan-related sanctions: Treasury Department
Dutch Police: Two were wounded in a shooting in the city of Rotterdam, southwest of the country, and the attacker is still at large
Russia halts nuclear fuel exports to US over lack of insurance: Rosatom

US set for recession next year, economists predict

  • By Al Mayadeen English
  • Source: Wall Street Journal
  • 17 Oct 2022 16:21
  • x

66 economists surveyed predict that the next recession will begin in 2023.

  • The US economy may be heading into a recession.
    The US economy may be heading into a recession.

The US economy will tip into a recession next year, as the Federal Reserve struggles to bring down firmly high inflation, as per The Wall Street Journal's latest survey of economists.

The probability of a recession in the next 12 months is now 63%, up from 49% in July's survey, according to the report. It is the first time the survey has put the probability above 50% since July 2020, following the previous short but sharp recession.

Their projections for 2023 are becoming increasingly pessimistic. Economists now expect GDP to contract in the first two quarters of the year, a downgrade from the previous quarterly survey, which predicted mild growth.

Economists now predict that GDP will contract at an annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2023 and shrink by 0.1% in the second quarter. According to the July survey, they expected 0.8% growth in the first quarter and 1% growth in the second.

Employers are expected to cut jobs in the second and third quarters in response to slower growth and lower profits. 

Related News

Senator opposes including Ukraine aid in short-term funding extension

US government shutdown to take a $100ml hit on small businesses

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall by 34,000 per month on average in the second quarter and 38,000 in the third quarter, according to economists. 

According to the most recent survey, employers expected to add about 65,000 jobs per month during those two quarters.

Forecasters have raised their expectations for a recession because they are increasingly skeptical that the Federal Reserve can continue to raise interest rates to cool inflation without causing higher unemployment and an economic downturn. 58.9% of economists believe the Fed will raise interest rates too quickly, causing unneeded economic weakness, up from 45.6% in July.

According to economists' average forecasts, a recession will be relatively short-lived. The average expectation for the length of a recession among economists who see a greater than 50% chance of a recession in the next year was eight months. The typical postwar slump lasted 10.2 months.

They expect the economy to grow 0.4% in 2023 through the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year. They forecast 1.8% growth in the economy in 2024.

Most economists believe the Fed will have to reverse course and begin cutting rates late next year or early in 2024. 30% of economists expect the Fed to cut rates in the fourth quarter of 2023, and 28.3% expect the next cut in the first quarter of 2024.

Read more: Inflation could become rooted in US economy

  • United States
  • Federal reserve
  • US
  • US recession
  • Economic inflation
  • inflation
  • US inflation
  • Recession
  • US economy

Most Read

Russia destroyed leopard tank in Ukraine with fully-German crew

Russia destroyed leopard tank in Ukraine with fully-German crew

  • Europe
  • 23 Sep 2023
Blinken’s ‘Variable Geometry’ for a New Cold War

Blinken’s ‘Variable Geometry’ for a New Cold War

  • Analysis
  • 24 Sep 2023
BBC from the front lines in Ukraine: It's bad, counteroffensive failed

BBC from the front lines in Ukraine: It's bad, counteroffensive failed

  • Europe
  • 28 Sep 2023
Zelensky joins Canadian Parliament’s ovation to WWII Nazi soldier

Zelensky joins Canadian Parliament’s ovation to WWII Nazi soldier

  • US & Canada
  • 25 Sep 2023

Coverage

All
Morocco & Libya Disasters

Read Next

All
BBC to restrict top hosts' social media usage
Europe

BBC to restrict hosts' social media for chiding anti-migration remarks

Germany, 'Israel'
Europe

Germany signs 'historic' deal to acquire Israeli-made Arrow 3 system

Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a media briefing at the State Department, Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2023, in Washington. (AP)
Europe

'Never say never': Blinken on Biden-Putin meeting in the future

Plastic found in clouds may contaminate everything we consume
US & Canada

Microplastics in clouds cause 'plastic rainfall', infect everything

Al Mayadeen English

Al Mayadeen is an Arab Independent Media Satellite Channel.

All Rights Reserved

  • x
  • Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Authors
Android
iOS