World Bank warns of bleak economic outlook for Ukraine, Russia
Ukraine's GDP is to contract by 45.1 percent this year, 10 to 35 percent more than what the IMF estimated.
The World Bank provided gloomy estimates for Ukraine as Russia's operation has an impact on both the country and its neighbors, warning of an even bleaker economic picture if the conflict continues.
Ukraine's GDP would contract by 45.1 percent this year, according to the bank, significantly more than the 10 to 35 percent contraction estimated by the IMF last month.
Read more: Ukraine expects GDP to fall by 40% in 2022
Russia's GDP will fall by 11.2 percent, according to the World Bank, and the conflict, which began in late February and has led more than 4 million Ukrainians to flee to Poland, Romania, and Moldova, will have an economic impact on the entire region.
The conflict also has caused the prices of grains and energy to soar.
Read more: Biden sent gas prices soaring long before Ukraine: Trump
"The results of our analysis are very sobering. Our forecasts show that the Russian invasion in Ukraine has reversed the region's recovery from the pandemic," said Anna Bjerde, World Bank vice president for Europe and Central Asia.
"This is the second major shock to hit the regional economy in two years and comes at a very precarious time for the region, as many economies were still struggling to recover from the pandemic," she told reporters.
According to Washington-based organizations, rising and developing countries in Europe and Central Asia will decline by 4.1 percent this year, a significant turnaround from the 3 percent growth forecast before the war and twice as terrible as the pandemic-induced recession in 2020.
What is the worst-case scenario?
Ukraine's economy is under "extreme duress" because of reduced government revenues, enterprises that have stopped or are only partially operating, and significantly disrupted goods commerce.
Grain exports and other economic activity have "become impossible in large swaths of the country due to heavy damage to infrastructure," Bjerde said.
Read more: Ukraine losses against Russia could amount to $500bln: Kiev
The bank's predictions anticipated the battle would last a few more months, but they were "subject to severe uncertainty."
A more pessimistic scenario, reflecting an escalation of the conflict, would result in a stronger negative impact on the eurozone, increasing Western sanctions, and a financial shock as confidence erodes.
According to the analysis, the region's economy would fall by about 9%, worse than during the 2008 global financial crisis, with Russia's GDP contracting by 20% and Ukraine's economy collapsing by 75%.
The World Bank stated that the share of the population living on $5.50 per day is predicted to climb to 19.8 percent this year, up from 1.8 percent in 2021.