During the initial two months of the ongoing Israeli aggression on Gaza, the emissions contributing to global warming exceeded the annual carbon footprint of over 20 of the world's most climate-vulnerable nations, The Guardian reported, citing a new study.

More than 99% of the estimated 281,000 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2 equivalent) generated in the first 60 days of the aggression can be attributed to "Israel's" hysteric aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza.

This unprecedented analysis, conducted by researchers in the UK and the US, indicated that the climate impact of "Israel's" military aggression in the initial 60 days is equivalent to burning a minimum of 150,000 tonnes of coal. It is worth noting that this study, based on a limited set of carbon-intensive activities, is likely a significant underestimate, as per the report.

The analysis, still awaiting peer review, encompasses CO2 emissions from aircraft missions, tanks, fuel from various vehicles, and emissions associated with the production and detonation of bombs, artillery, and rockets. Notably, it excludes other greenhouse gases like methane. Nearly 50% of the overall CO2 emissions resulted from US cargo planes transporting military supplies to "Israel". 
 
The data, which have been exclusively shared by The Guardian, presented the initial and conservative estimation of the carbon impact of the ongoing aggression on Gaza.

The aggression, which is marked by unparalleled human suffering, infrastructure devastation, and environmental catastrophe, now has a quantified carbon cost.
 
This development occurs as demands intensify for increased transparency regarding military greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions, contributing significantly to the climate crisis, are typically concealed and not factored into the annual UN climate action negotiations.
 
“This study is only a snapshot of the larger military boot print of war … a partial picture of the massive carbon emissions and wider toxic pollutants that will remain long after the fighting is over,” stated Benjamin Neimark, a senior lecturer at Queen Mary, University of London (QMUL), and co-author of the research released on Tuesday on Social Science Research Network. 

A war on nature

Earlier research indicates that the actual carbon footprint could be five to eight times greater if emissions from the entire war supply chain were taken into account.

“The military’s environmental exceptionalism allows them to pollute with impunity as if the carbon emissions spitting from their tanks and fighter jets don’t count. This has to stop, to tackle the climate crisis we need accountability,” added Neimark as quoted by The Guardian.
 
Since October 7, "Israel" has killed over 23,000 Palestinians in Gaza, as indicated by Gaza’s Health Ministry. Approximately 70% of the victims are women or children. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) estimated that the aggression on Gaza has internally displaced 1.9 million people, nearly 85% of the population. Moreover, tens of thousands of buildings have been reduced to rubble.

Beyond the immediate suffering, the Israeli aggression is worsening the global climate crisis, extending well beyond the CO2 emissions from bombs and planes.

Recent research estimated that the carbon impact of reconstructing Gaza's 100,000 damaged buildings using modern construction methods will result in a minimum of 30 million metric tonnes of greenhouse gases. This is comparable to New Zealand's annual CO2 emissions and surpasses 135 other countries and territories, including Sri Lanka, Lebanon, and Uruguay.

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David Boyd, the UN special rapporteur for human rights and the environment, remarked as quoted by The Guardian, “This research helps us understand the immense magnitude of military emissions – from preparing for war, carrying out war and rebuilding after war. Armed conflict pushes humanity even closer to the precipice of climate catastrophe, and is an idiotic way to spend our shrinking carbon budget.”

The environmental consequences, such as sea-level rise, drought, and extreme heat, were already posing threats to water supplies and food security in occupied Palestine.

Now, the environmental situation in Gaza is deemed catastrophic, with much of the farmland, energy, and water infrastructure destroyed or polluted, leading to severe health implications likely to persist for decades. Experts have cautioned that between 36% and 45% of Gaza's buildings, including homes, schools, mosques, hospitals, and shops, have been destroyed or damaged.

“The catastrophic aerial attack on Gaza will not fade when a ceasefire comes,” said Zena Agha, a policy analyst at Al-Shabaka, the Palestinian Policy Network, which tackles the climate crisis and the Israeli occupation, as quoted by The Guardian.

“The military detritus will continue to live in the soil, the earth, the sea and the bodies of the Palestinians living in Gaza – just as it does in other postwar contexts such as Iraq,” Agha added.

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"Israel's" dreadful military carbon footprint

The environmental impact of war and occupation remains inadequately understood. Primarily due to US influence, the reporting of military emissions is voluntary, with only four countries providing some incomplete data to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), responsible for organizing the annual climate talks.

Even in the absence of comprehensive data, a recent study revealed that militaries contribute to almost 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions annually, surpassing the combined emissions of the aviation and shipping industries. This positions the global military carbon footprint, excluding war-induced emission spikes, as the fourth-largest, trailing only the US, China, and India.

At COP28 in Dubai last month, Hadeel Ikhmais, head of the climate change office at the Palestinian Environmental Quality Authority, said as quoted by The Guardian, “We are trying to do our part on the climate crisis but even before the war in Gaza, it is hard to adapt and mitigate when we cannot access water or land or any technologies without Israel’s permission.”

Utilizing its defense budget as a proxy, the recent study approximates that "Israel's" annual baseline military carbon footprint, excluding war-related emissions, reached nearly 7 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2019. This amount is roughly equivalent to the CO2 emitted by the entire nation of Cyprus and represents a 55% increase in emissions compared to occupied Palestine.

Even before the recent aggression, the majority of Palestinians in occupied Gaza were already grappling with substantial insecurities related to food, water, and energy. These challenges were attributed to the Israeli occupation, blockade, high population density, and the escalating climate crisis.
 
The construction of a separation barrier, spanning 65km along the majority of the occupied Palestinian territory bordering Gaza and incorporating surveillance cameras, underground sensors, razor wire, a 20ft high metal fence, and substantial concrete barriers, resulted in nearly 274,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions. This is comparable to the entire emissions of the Central African Republic for the year 2022, a country highly vulnerable to climate impacts.

US: An accomplice to Israeli crimes

The United States wields an outsized influence in military carbon emissions and provides "Israel" with billions of dollars in military aid, weapons, and equipment used in Gaza and the West Bank.

As of December 4, around 200 American cargo flights had reportedly transported 10,000 tonnes of military equipment to "Israel". The study revealed that these flights consumed approximately 50 million liters of aviation fuel, emitting an estimated 133,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, thus surpassing the total emissions of the entire island of Grenada in the previous year.

Co-author Patrick Bigger, the Research Director at the CCP think tank, emphasized, “The role of the US in the human and environmental destruction of Gaza cannot be overstated.” 

“Among all the problems facing the state of Palestine in the coming decades, climate change is the most immediate and certain – and this has been amplified by the occupation and war on Gaza since the 7 October,” said Ikhmais, the Palestinian climate director. “The carbon emissions from the military attacks contradict the UNFCCC and Paris agreement goal … recognizing the environmental impact of war is crucial.”

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