Climate change, conflict made floods in Libya more likely: Study
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Scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group say Libya's disaster occurs once every 300 to 600 years, and human-caused global warming increased the likelihood and intensity of the showers by up to 50% over the study period.
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Floodwaters from Storm Daniel are visible on September 12, 2023. Scientists say the Mediterranean storm that dumped torrential rain on the Libyan coast is just the latest extreme weather event to carry some hallmarks of climate change (AP)
According to recent research published on Tuesday, climate change increased the likelihood of the devastating flooding that occurred in Libya by up to 50 times. The study also noted that violence and negligent dam maintenance contributed to the humanitarian catastrophe caused by the harsh weather.
Following the failure of two dams on September 10 due to heavy rains, a massive wave of water slammed the city of Derna, carrying countless numbers of people into the Mediterranean Sea along with entire structures.
A deluge of the magnitude witnessed in northeastern Libya was an event that occurs once every 300 to 600 years, according to Scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group.
Their research showed that human-caused global warming increased the likelihood and intensity of the showers by up to 50% over the study period.
According to a survey on floods caused by Storm Daniel, which swept through most of the Mediterranean in early September, severe rainfall was up to 10 times more likely in Greece, Bulgaria, and Turkey as well as up to 50 times more likely in Libya due to climate change.
Researchers emphasized, however, that additional factors, like violence and substandard dam maintenance, turned the "extreme weather into a humanitarian disaster."
The WWA scientists utilize historical climate data and computer modeling to compare the current climate -- which has warmed by about 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times -- to that of the past in order to dissect the potential contribution of global warming to the intensifying of extreme occurrences.
The influence that climate change has played -- or has not played -- in a particular incident can typically be estimated with greater accuracy by WWA scientists.
However, in this instance, they said that the study was constrained by a dearth of observation weather station data, especially in Libya, as well as the fact that the events took place across a narrow area, which is not well represented by climate models.
The study noted that despite these "large mathematical uncertainties," researchers were "confident that climate change did make the events more likely" due to factors such as the fact that current warming is associated with a 10-percent increase in rainfall intensity.
Climate change-fueled weather events, human factors to create even 'bigger impacts'
Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London said that after a summer full of devastating heatwaves and wildfires "with a very clear climate change fingerprint, quantifying the contribution of global warming to these floods proved more challenging."
"But there is absolutely no doubt that reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience to all types of extreme weather is paramount for saving lives in the future," he added.
Scientists deemed Daniel, which developed in the eastern Mediterranean, to be the deadliest and most expensive storm to ever affect the Mediterranean and Africa. For the first 10 days of September, the storm caused fatal floods throughout the region.
According to the study, the susceptibility and exposure of communities and infrastructure were what determined the severity of the impacts.
In central Greece for instance, the devastation was exacerbated because cities are situated in flood-prone locations.
The authors stated that "long-lasting armed conflict, political instability, potential design flaws, and poor maintenance of dams all contributed to the disaster" in Libya, where the death toll in Derna alone has exceeded 3,300 and is projected to grow.
According to Julie Arrighi, director at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Libya's disaster reveals "how climate change-fueled extreme weather events are combining with human factors to create even bigger impacts, as more people, assets and infrastructure are exposed and vulnerable to flood risks."
Read: Contaminated water in Libya floods poisons 55 children
