Ecological tipping points could occur much sooner than expected: Study
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The ecological collapse will begin sooner than previously thought, and we "could realistically be the last generation to see the Amazon."
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Smoke rises from a forest fire in the Transamazonica highway region, in the municipality of Labrea, Amazonas state, Brazil, Sept. 17, 2022 (AP)
A new study that simulates how tipping points can amplify and accelerate one another predicts that ecological collapse will begin sooner than previously thought.
These results lead the authors to conclude that more than a fifth of ecosystems worldwide, including the Amazon rainforest, are in danger of experiencing a catastrophic collapse within the lifespan of an individual.
The co-leader of the study, Prof Simon Willcock of Rothamsted Research, said, "It could happen very soon," adding that we "could realistically be the last generation to see the Amazon."
The study, which was released on Thursday in Nature Sustainability, will probably spark a contentious discussion. The science of tipping points and their interactions is still in its infancy compared to the well-known and unequivocally established link between fossil fuels and global warming.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the foremost scientific advisory body of the UN, has been more circumspect. It predicted that the Amazon might reach a tipping point by 2100 in its most recent assessment.
Carlos Nobre and other well-known Brazilian scientists have cautioned that this could happen much sooner. The latest study emphasizes this worrying possibility. It notes that most studies conducted up to this point have concentrated on a single cause of devastation, such as deforestation or climate change. But the breakdown happens much faster when you add this to other dangers like water stress, deterioration, and river contamination from mining.
China's Lake Erhai fell earlier than most experts anticipated. Willcock claimed that this was the case because predictions had been made based on a single factor -- agricultural runoff that was overburdening the water system with nutrients -- but that additional stresses had compounded and sped up this degradation. The lake system quickly lost its resistance as other pollutants, water management, and climate change were introduced.
The team, which included researchers from Rothamsted Research, Southampton, Sheffield, and Bangor universities, examined two lake ecosystems and two forests using computer models with 70,000 different combinations of factors.
They discovered that even when the fundamental stress was kept constant, new pressures or dramatic occurrences might still result in up to 15% of collapses. They discovered that even when an ecosystem is managed effectively in one area, new stresses like climate change and extreme weather can tip the scales in the opposite direction and cause an ecosystem to collapse.
Despite the study's narrow focus, the authors claimed that the findings demonstrated the necessity for policymakers to move forward with greater haste.
"Previous studies of ecological tipping points suggest significant social and economic costs from the second half of the 21st century onwards. Our findings suggest the potential for these costs to occur much sooner," the co-author Prof John Dearing noted.
The results, according to Willcock, were "devastating", but he said that this method of system dynamics research had the potential to be useful because it demonstrated how even modest systemic changes may have significant effects. Even though the study concentrated on how straws break ecosystems' backs, he said it's also possible that the inverse is true. For instance, Lake Erhai has begun to show indications of improvement.
"The same logic can work in reverse. Potentially if you apply positive pressure, you can see rapid recovery," he said, emphasizing that fewer people were aware of how quickly time was passing.
