The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that coal will have its highest demand by the end of the year in its "Coal 2023" report, released on Friday. 

The global demand for fuel is projected to increase by 1.4% by the conclusion of 2023, exceeding 8.5 billion tons for the first time in history. This upswing is primarily attributed to a significant rise in coal consumption in emerging and developing economies. Notably, India and China are anticipated to experience growth rates of 8% and 5% respectively in their coal sectors, primarily propelled by an increasing need for electricity in the face of inadequate hydropower production.

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This year, the production of the fossil fuel also registered an unprecedented peak, with the three leading coal producers—China, India, and Indonesia, responsible for 70% of the world's supply—anticipated to collectively surpass 2.5 billion tons in output. The global coal trade is also forecasted to attain a new all-time high, fueled by robust growth in Asia.

2.3% decrease by 2026

However, in the upcoming year, a decline in coal consumption is expected, particularly in advanced economies, as renewable energy capacity expands. The surge in the use of renewables is projected to be particularly significant in China, currently representing over half of the world's coal demand, according to the agency. By 2026, the IEA envisions a 2.3% decrease in global coal demand compared to 2023 levels. 

This creates the belief that the shift in coal consumption will last longer and yield more significance than it did before. 

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“We have seen declines in global coal demand a few times, but they were brief and caused by extraordinary events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union or the Covid-19 crisis. This time appears different, as the decline is more structural, driven by the formidable and sustained expansion of clean energy technologies,” Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, said.

The analyst mentioned that while significant efforts are still needed to meet international climate goals, “a turning point for coal is clearly on the horizon.”

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China leads global green energy transition, but not without challenges

China is also poised to become the world leader in renewable power and might eventually surpass its own green energy targets, a report published by The Guardian on June 29 highlighted.

By 2025, China is set to hit its 2030 goal of producing 1,200 gigawatts through wind and solar power, doubling the output it produces today, Global Energy Monitor - a US-based NGO that catalogs fossil fuel and renewable energy projects worldwide - said in the report.

Current solar farms under construction will add another 379GW, the report added, which is triple that of the United States and nearly double that of the EU.

Since 2017, China's power production from wind farms doubled, passing 310GW in 2023, almost equal to the next top seven countries combined. The Asian giant is on the path to introducing another 317GW before the end of 2025.

China announced in 2020 that it aims to "reach peak carbon emissions by 2030," and carbon neutrality by 2060.

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