Many Western military strategists have been wishfully speculating that Ukraine will overturn the course of events of the war in the anticipated spring counteroffensive if supplied with enough Western weaponry. Daniel Davis of the 19fortyfive website contends that this is an overestimation. 

“Emotion and Western preference for a Ukrainian victory aside, a calculating examination of the combat and wartime fundamentals do not bode well for Kiev.” Davis’ article reads. 

Military aid in anticipation of the counteroffensive

For the past months, media reports and the speeches of officials have been abounding with hints of an anticipated large-scale Ukrainian offensive that was being prepared.

On March 23, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, optimistically announced that the counteroffensive will launch very soon confidently speculating that it will be successful in countering recent Russian gains in Bakhmut, comparing the anticipated military scenario to that of Kiev and Kharkiv during the early days of the war. 

Read more: Kiev's troops fight in Bakhmut to 'buy time' ahead of Spring offensive

Later, the Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov, who was accused of corruption scandals in arms deals, announced that Ukrainian forces had received tanks and armored personnel carriers from several Western countries. 

In the article, Davis lists a set of advanced weaponry which Ukraine has received from the West: MiG 29 jets, American Patriot air defense systems, American  M1A1 Abrams tanks, Stryker armored vehicles, British Challenger tanks, German Leopard tanks, French AMX-10 vehicles, Turkish Kirpi armored personnel carriers, American Paladin self-propelled 155mm howitzers.

They have arrived!
Strykers and Cougars from 🇺🇲, Challengers from 🇬🇧, Marders from 🇩🇪 have officially joined the Air Assault Forces of the #UAarmy!
The greatest vehicles for the best soldiers.
Onward! pic.twitter.com/xZnjtdnwfq

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 27, 2023

In addition to hefty packages of military aid, Ukrainian troops have enjoyed extensive military training at different NATO facilities in Europe. It was reported that back in February up to 30,000 Ukrainian troops in Europe, following the EU's pledge to train Ukrainian forces for their offensive against Russia. Later on the 17th of March, the Pentagon announced that more than 600 soldiers have finished a training course on large-scale maneuvers in Germany.

The Pentagon revealed that during the training camp in Germany had completed combined arms training on the M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle after the US had agreed to provide more than 100 Bradleys equipped with 25 mm autocannons. 

Read more: War in motion: Will new Western arms tip current balance in Ukraine?

Wishful Military Strategism 

In the 19fortyfive article, Davis contends that the hefty military aid funneled to Ukraine doesn't guarantee the success of the spring counteroffensive. On the contrary, he argues that a close inspection of the facts on the ground shows that there is little chance to overturn the war's course of events. 

He argues that the military camps which the Ukrainian forces are receiving "are far too disjointed and will not adequately prepare the Ukrainian military to conduct large-scale, properly coordinated, and sophisticated combined-arms operations to penetrate multiple belts of prepared Russian defensive positions."

Read more: Kiev unable to launch counteroffensive: Zelensky

He also added, in regards to the equipment received by Ukraine, that while they do stand as a formidable bulk of advanced weapons, Western assessments of Ukraine often overlook the complication of turning this bulk of weapons into combat power.

Additionally, on a more technical level, Davis points out that Abrams and Leopard Tanks' combat performance is often overestimated in Western assessments of Ukraine. He points out that these tanks, in themselves, cant act as a transformative technology that would significantly upset the battlefield combat in favor of Ukraine. 

He cites the example of the Battle of El Bab in Northern Syria where leopards were rendered futile on the battlefield. In the Battle of El Bab waged by the Turkish army against Kurdish rebels and ISIS terrorists, the German Leopard tanks gave the Turkish forces no significant upper hand noting that around 10 of the tanks were destroyed by the insurgents who are significantly less militarily potent than the Russian forces.