During a visit to Indonesia last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the possibility of Jakarta proceeding with normalization with "Israel."

According to Axios, Blinken discussed the topic with officials in the Indonesian government.

The topic is one of the numerous files on the agenda for Blinken in Indonesia, which suggests a shift in American views toward Jakarta and Washington's attempts to breach the direction of the largest Muslim country in the world.

The history

Relations between the US and Indonesia have historically been characterized by much volatility, especially considering that Washington supported the overthrow of Ahmed Sukarno who was close to the Soviet Union and China, and pushed for the rise of the US-oriented Suharto.

After the fall of Suharto, and despite the embargo imposed on Jakarta by Washington, Indonesia maintained its neutrality and attempted to diversify its sources of armament, particularly from Russia, and establish good relations with China.

Today, as Southeast Asia becomes a major theater of the rivalry between the US and China, Indonesia is one of the biggest diplomatic prizes with the world's fourth-largest population and a vast archipelago with sea lanes linking Asia to the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Reading between the lines

China recognizes the importance of Indonesia and pays close attention to its relationship with the nation. Beijing recently worked to give priority to Jakarta in obtaining the Chinese COVID-19 vaccine. China has also become the second-largest source of foreign investment in Indonesia and its largest trading partner.

The Biden administration's Interim National Security Strategic Guidance makes no mention of Indonesia, and its strategy towards Jakarta remains unclear. 

Jakarta is trying to emphasize its neutral foreign policy by not antagonizing any of the major powers nor allying with any. In October of last year, Indonesia rejected a US proposal to allow P-8 Poseideon naval surveillance aircraft to land and refuel. 

What comes next? 

The Americans pushing for Indonesia to normalize ties with "Israel" appears to be linked to the dispute with China, since it amounts to nothing more than an attempt to blur the lines in the foreign policy of the world's largest Muslim country. 

It could be that Washington hopes that this would result in a fundamental shift in Jakarta's position and sway it to the American's side at the expense of China.

Given Indonesia's historically neutral legacy, Israeli sources do not expect progress in this regard anytime soon, while other sources indicate that the US-Chinese rivalry over Indonesia may not be resolved in favor of either party, with Jakarta possibly being able to exploit this competition to strengthen its position.