Belarus has completed the manufacturing of launch vehicles for the Oreshnik missile system and is preparing to send them to Russia, where they will be outfitted with missiles before deployment. Alexander Volfovich, State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, confirmed the development, emphasizing the joint nature of the project under the Union State framework between Minsk and Moscow.

"This missile system is like a product of the Union State, because the base, the main vehicle, is manufactured at the enterprises of the military-industrial complex in the Republic of Belarus, and already the means of defeat, missiles, are manufactured in the Russian Federation. We are finalizing the production of the necessary number of these machines, which will soon be transferred to the Russian Federation to install the means of defeat on them," Volfovich said in an interview with Belarus 1 broadcaster.

Strategic Deployment and NATO's Growing Concerns

Volfovich revealed that Belarus has already designated locations for the system's deployment, signaling that the country is advancing its military coordination with Moscow. The Oreshnik missile system, known for its ability to deploy multiple submunitions mid-flight, has raised concerns among NATO members and Western military analysts, particularly after its first recorded combat use in Ukraine's Dnipro region last November.

A report by Foreign Policy warned that the Oreshnik missile is capable of carrying six warheads, each deploying six submunitions, making it particularly effective against air bases and high-value military targets. Unlike Russia's previous missile systems, which have struggled against Western air defenses, the Oreshnik's cluster-strike capability ensures widespread destruction, even if some warheads are intercepted.

The missile system can be armed with nuclear warheads, though Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that its advanced conventional capabilities could serve as a deterrent without resorting to nuclear escalation.

Belarus as a Military Staging Ground

Belarus' active role in Oreshnik missile production and deployment has heightened fears of an expanded Russian missile presence near NATO's borders. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko previously requested the deployment of Oreshnik systems on Belarusian territory, citing their strategic importance in countering Western military forces.

"Tactical nuclear weapons have been transferred to us. Shortly, the latest Oreshnik hypersonic weapon systems will enter service with the Belarusian army," Lukashenko said while addressing Russia's upper house of parliament.

The Foreign Policy report further discussed NATO's limited defenses against the Oreshnik, with current European missile defense systems struggling to intercept its high-altitude and rapid descent trajectory. Only advanced interceptors such as the Arrow 3 and SM-3 Block IIA have a chance of stopping it, but their availability remains scarce across Europe.

Escalation and Western Responses

Russia has confirmed that Oreshnik missile deployments in Belarus could begin in the second half of 2025, once mass production increases. This move aligns with Minsk's growing military cooperation with Moscow, amid escalating tensions with the West.

Meanwhile, European nations have accelerated efforts to send additional military aid to Ukraine, fearing that a fully operational Oreshnik system in Belarus could cause a significant power imbalance. Some NATO officials have called for expanding the alliance's missile defense capabilities in Eastern Europe, including deploying additional Patriot and Aegis Ashore systems.

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