Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is hoping that no one would notice that his first foray into foreign policy has been a complete disaster following eight years of a brutal war on Yemen, a new analysis by Bloomberg states. 

Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler would prefer that we all pay attention to his rising role in world affairs as he attempts to present himself as a mediating power in the proposed initiative, engaging the parties to the conflict to find a comprehensive peace agreement, the report ponders.

MBS decided to engage in a needless Middle Eastern war that has led to one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises and left more than 200,000 civilian casualties.

Yemen has constantly affirmed that Saudi Arabia is not a mediator in the peace proposal but a major party in the conflict.

The story coming out of Riyadh is consistent with the notion that MBS is merely (and wisely) reacting to shifting American foreign policy goals. Saudi Arabia can no longer rely on the American security blanket and must make alternative arrangements, such as coming to an agreement with Iran and leaving the conflict in Yemen, as a string of presidents made it their mission to remove the US from the Middle East, as per the report.

Bloomberg further asserts that the prince, as much as any president, is responsible for the eroding of the ties that have bound Riyadh and Washington for the best part of eight decades.

The nature of Saudi-US ties

"The humiliation in Yemen is a good example." 

MBS chose to launch his brutal aggression on Yemen when he was only 30 years old and had recently been named defense minister, and placed himself in charge of an Arab alliance that comprised Bahrain, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, with the US being heavily engaged in the kingdom's war against its neighbor and billions of dollars spent.

The military operations of the coalition were given impressive names like "Decisive Storm" and "Restoring Hope," and MBS was sure that they could accomplish their objectives in a matter of months with very few troops on the ground. A sea blockade would isolate Yemenis, and they would be bombed into submission from the air. The US provided information and logistics support, as well as military equipment to the Saudis and Emiratis.

"MBS’s larger goal was to inaugurate an era of muscular Saudi foreign policy, directed mainly at Iran," the report explains.

However, US-backed Saudi airpower was ineffective in deterring Yemenis. And as the war continued, thousands of civilian lives were lost and millions were left homeless. In short, Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the region, has been destroyed, and none of the MBS's alleged' goals were achieved.

"Rather than warn off Iran, the conflict deepened the Islamic Republic’s involvement," the analysis acknowledged.

MBS was willing to give up after attacks on Saudi production facilities in the fall of 2019 disrupted almost 5% of the world's oil supply and raised prices. Yemenis held the upper hand and were not about to back down. They only consented to a ceasefire that was mediated by the UN last year.

The Saudis started negotiations with Iran under Iraqi mediation in an effort to break their seven-year diplomatic standstill. The two parties announced their decision to reestablish relations last month. The US was unprepared for the reconciliation: The Wall Street Journal reported that the Biden administration was blindsided by Riyadh’s agreement with Tehran.  

The agreement represented a significant victory for Iran and, consequently, for Yemen, the paper added. Riyadh has further hinted that it is willing to get along with Bashar al-Assad, the President of Syria.

It is significant that the Saudi negotiators had to travel to Sanaa to request conditions to terminate the kingdom's involvement. What can they possibly expect? The goal of MBS to restore Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi as president appears to be a distant memory. Instead, a buffer zone between the two nations is top on the Saudi list of demands, though even that is little more than a fig leaf given Yemen's expanding arsenal of missiles and drones.

"No matter how they spin it in Riyadh, this is a humiliation for MBS. And the prince has only himself to blame," the analysis concluded.