Brazil's elections: Bolsonaro trails behind Lula by 16 points

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
17 Aug 2022 10:53
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With the final round of election results due in October, Brazil prepares for a tough competition in the country's most polarized presidential run: Leftist Lula Da Silva against extreme right-wing Bolsonaro.

Presidential candidate Luiz Lula Da Silva (Reuters)

Statistics from a poll published on Monday in Brazil showed presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with 44% of voter support as opposed to 32% for incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro in the first round of the election scheduled due to take place on October 2.

What the numbers say

In the second round due to take place on October 30, in case no candidate wins 50% plus one of the valid votes, Lula Da Silva would get elected by 51% of the votes and 35% for Bolsonaro, a 16-point gap, according to the poll.

Although Lula's lead has dropped from 26% in December to 18% in July, 57% of Brazilians disapprove of the way Bolsonaro manages the country, especially concerning his adoption of extremist views against women, Afro-Brazilians, and the left, while only 37% approve, according to IPEC, the poll's surveyor.

It was IPEC's first national poll of voter participation and 2,000 people were interviewed in person between August 12 and 14. The poll has a margin of safety of 2 percentage points up or down.

Lula: Rebuilding Brazil from Bolsonaro's wreckage

Bolsonaro, a former military captain and extreme right-wing persona, has increased funding on welfare for those living in poverty in Brazil, which may explain his increase in numbers from his approval rating now at 29%, compared to just 19% in December, in addition to pressing state-controlled oil company Petrobras to lower the price of fuel, a big factor in boosting inflation.

His past, however, counteracts that, as he is known to have a history of political violence and populist methods of mobilizing the public into aggressive tendencies, through the use of social media and taking to the streets by taking advantage of anti-migration sentiments and embodying the image of the neo-caudillo (a political strongman) that saves the country from the "bad guys", aka the opposing party, and being "from the people".

This presidential race has been Brazil's most polarized in decades, narrowing in recent weeks, with Lula Da Silva, former Brazilian president, vowing to rebuild Brazil from Bolsonaro's damages and promising to recognize land claims of indigenous nations and prohibit the illegal mining on their lands. Bolsonaro has been notorious for endorsing investments mainly through the deforestation of Brazil's rainforests and indigenous lands.

After conducting telephone surveys, pollster Quaest found that Bolsonaro is now statistically even with Lula in the country's largest electoral college of São Paulo, and has neared Lula's lead in Minas Gerais, the state with the second largest amount of voters.