China's growth eroding US deterrence: Project Syndicate

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Project Syndicate
3 May 2023 16:15
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The present global context has been characterized by Project Syndicate as a global balance of power tilting in favor of multipolarization.

The aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, foreground, leads a formation of Carrier Strike Group Five ships as Air Force B-52 Stratofortress aircraft and Navy F/A-18 Hornet aircraft pass overhead during Valiant Shield 2018 in the Philippine Sea on Sept. 17, 2018. (US Navy)

US deterrence strategies are losing steam amid a world becoming increasingly multi-polarized and a rising China, according to a piece wrtten for Project Syndicate by Joseph Nye, a former US assistant secretary of defense, detailed.

When Russia waged its special military operation in Ukraine, defying threats from the West about the inevitable outcome of sanctions, it sent a clear message to the US that the credibility of its deterrence strategy is no longer as intimidating as it once used to be.

The present global context has been characterized by a global balance of power tilting in favor of multipolarization. Nye blames the decrease of credibility in US deterrence on the growth of the military capabilities of its rivals.

In the case of the Ukraine conflict, risk reduction has been more a matter of degree than an either/or choice, he argues. This accounts for the reason why Russia hasn't blown off Europe's gas lifeline so far, Nye assumes.

During the Cold War, what ensured a credible deterrent for the Soviet army was the fact that US troops were stationed on the other side of the Berlin Wall. Killing US troops would therefore inevitably result in full-blown nuclear warfare, which the Soviets were not keen to initiate.

The same scenario is applicable to the two Koreas, where South Koreans have expressed favor for the development of their own nuclear arms to balance capabilities against those of North Korea. Instead, the South Korean presidency agreed with Biden in April to station a nuclear-armed submarine near the Korean Peninsula.

Moreover, "the credibility of US-extended deterrence in this instance, much like in the Berlin example, is reinforced by the presence of 28,500 US troops in South Korea," Nye states, noting that forward operating bases in Japan have provided the same assurance.

US employing double deterrence

Nye further proceeds by stating that the Trump administration has caused massive damage to US credibility due to the option it considered of withdrawing troops in the Asian Pacific region, that when Trump met with DPRK Chairman Kim Jong-un in 2018, he predicted that the country would rid off its WMD program. But that prediction obviously failed to come to fruition.

Finally, bringing forth the case of Taiwan, Nye states that the US has systematically refused to recognize Taiwan's independence and that although it has supplied the island with weapons, it still doesn't recognize it as a sovereign State. He added that during his years working as a Pentagon official in the Clinton administration, he warned China against testing US deterrence.

In this context, Nye says that the US employed a strategy of "double deterrence" wherein it not only prevented China from using force against Taiwan, but also prevented Taiwan from pursuing a de jure independence.

With the constant flow of US lawmakers flying to the island, and China, in turn, responding with military drills of great magnitude, it is unlikely that such a strategy of "double deterrence" may remain operational any longer.

On four separate occasions, Biden affirmed that the US would defend Taiwan. But his statements were shortly followed by those of the White House, reaffirming adherence to the One-China policy.

For Nye, this strategy is a good way of "steering a path that avoids projecting weakness or provoking escalation" and is "decisive for avoiding all-out war."