US military warnings directed at Venezuela appear to be part of a broader plan extending beyond Caracas. Analysts and regional activists argue that the Trump administration’s objective is regime change across multiple Caribbean Basin nations deemed unfavorable to Washington. Roger D. Harris of the Task Force on the Americas, alongside John Perry of the Nicaragua Solidarity Coalition, explained in an opinion piece for CounterPunch that these efforts target governments over a longer timeline, aiming to reshape regional politics in line with US interests.

John Mearsheimer, international relations professor at the University of Chicago, echoes this perspective, noting that the US “does not tolerate left-leaning governments… and as soon as they see a government that is considered to be left-of-center, they move to replace that government.”

Ryan Berg, head of the Americas program at CSIS, a Pentagon-funded think tank, told the Financial Times that Trump seeks for the US to be the “undisputable, pre-eminent power in the western hemisphere.” The New York Times has dubbed this approach the “Donroe Doctrine.”

Honduras is next in Washington’s crosshairs, with a pivotal election on November 30 determining whether the leftist Libre Party remains in power or is replaced by a neoliberal government. Experts warn that the Trump administration is leveraging military threats to influence Honduran voters, while opposition candidates emphasize their “anti-communist” stance as a campaign tool, despite communism not being on offer.

The Wall Street Journal even claimed Venezuela is plotting to “gobble up Honduras,” framing Libre as training in election fraud, a stark reversal of reports about opposition attempts to manipulate the vote. US officials, including Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, have said the government “will respond rapidly and firmly to any attack on the integrity of the electoral process,” even as critics argue Washington is actively undermining the popular mandate.

Cuba, Nicaragua in the US crosshairs

Cuba remains a prime target for the Trump administration. The Daily Telegraph describes Havana as the “real target” of US military activity in Venezuela. With decades of blockade failing to dislodge the Cuban revolution, US officials, including Senator Marco Rubio, see the Venezuelan crisis as a potential lever to weaken Cuba by disrupting vital fuel and supply shipments, emboldening dissidents, and undermining the revolution. Analysts note, however, that Cuba has proven remarkably resilient.

Nicaragua also faces mounting pressure. Although not yet threatened militarily, the US has imposed sanctions on businesses, threatened high tariffs, and signaled potential exclusion from regional trade agreements such as CAFTA. Opposition forces in Nicaragua see the Venezuelan regime-change campaign as a model for domestic action, aligning themselves with US-backed strategies.

Colombia and Mexico are also targeted, though the approach is less overtly military. Colombian President Gustavo Petro has been sanctioned as a “hostile foreign leader,” while condemning US attacks on Caribbean-bound vessels as "murder". Trump has threatened military action against Mexican drug cartels, expressing willingness to act regardless of Mexico’s consent. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum dismissed these threats, yet Gen Z protests across 50 cities were reportedly financed by right-wing international networks and amplified by bots, coinciding with US Caribbean military activity.

The Trumpian 'Donroe Doctrine' at work

Washington has previously influenced elections in Argentina and Ecuador and is watching upcoming votes in Chile and Colombia. Trump’s team aims to foster right-leaning victories, consolidating hemispheric influence. Former US official Marshall Billingslea has described the broader goal as a campaign against “the entire Latin American left, from Cuba to Brazil to Mexico to Nicaragua,” alleging, but offering no evidence, that Caracas finances a “socialist plague” spreading across the region.

The US strategy varies: direct regime change in Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua; indirect pressure, infiltration, and co-optation in countries like Mexico, Honduras, Colombia, and Chile. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have historically endorsed such policies, with Trump and Rubio leading the current charge.

The Trump administration is weighing the deployment of a significant portion of its naval power in the Caribbean to achieve hemispheric political change. Neoconservative advisers are advocating for assertive action, while questions remain about whether caution will prevail. 

"Will caution prevail, or will the US continue to bring lawlessness and chaos – as it has to Haiti, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan and elsewhere – not just to Venezuela but possibly to other countries in the region?", the article concluded.