Ecuador's Noboa begins term facing IMF backlash, rising doubts

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
25 May 2025 10:32
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Daniel Noboa has promised tighter port controls, international security partnerships, and a $4 billion IMF deal.

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Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa and his wife, Lavinia Valbonesi, acknowledge supporters from the balcony of the presidential palace after his swearing-in ceremony for a second term in Quito, Ecuador, Saturday, May 24, 2025. (AP)

Daniel Noboa, Ecuador’s youngest elected president, was officially sworn in on Saturday for a full term, pledging to intensify efforts to combat drug-related violence and rejuvenate the struggling economy. The 37-year-old business heir, who first assumed office in 2023 to complete his predecessor’s mandate, now begins a new chapter after an electoral victory in April.

Speaking before lawmakers during a formal ceremony at the National Assembly, Noboa declared, “The progressive reduction of homicides will be a non-negotiable goal.” The inauguration was marked by Assembly President Niels Olsen Peet placing the presidential sash over Noboa’s shoulders, sealing the moment with a firm handshake.

Noboa vowed to escalate his administration’s anti-narcotics campaign by seizing illegal arms and explosives, tightening port security, and enhancing oversight at key trafficking routes. “We will maintain our fight against drug trafficking and exercise greater control at the country's ports,” he said.

During his prior 18 months in office, Noboa enacted sweeping security reforms. These included deploying military troops across high-risk zones, imposing stricter penalties for drug and terrorism-related crimes, and declaring states of emergency in gang-dominated provinces. His policies, though controversial, have earned praise from some regional leaders, including those in El Salvador and "Israel," both of whom Noboa has cited as models in his security strategy.

One of his most contentious moves has been appointing Erik Prince, founder of the private military contractor Blackwater, as a security advisor, raising concerns among human rights groups and opposition figures about the militarization of domestic policy.

Crime rates fluctuate amid tough-on-crime agenda

While Noboa has celebrated a 15% decline in violent deaths throughout 2024, Ecuador’s Interior Ministry reported a troubling 58% surge in killings during the first four months of 2025. A total of 3,094 homicides were recorded in that span, compared to 1,961 in the same period the year before. Analysts caution that sustaining a downward trend in violence will require more than military interventions, especially in the absence of long-term social and economic reforms.

On the economic front, Noboa projected 4% national growth for 2025. However, the Ecuadorian central bank offered a more conservative forecast of 2.8%, reflecting concerns about rising debt levels and declining oil output. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio currently stands at 51.8%, and Ecuador faces a high country risk rating that complicates access to capital markets.

To stabilize public finances, Noboa has negotiated a $4 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund and is in talks with Chinese lenders to secure additional funding. He has also taken steps to close a $4.6 billion fiscal gap, pledging to create a “safe, stable, and competitive environment that fosters growth, protects investments, and guarantees real opportunities.”

Foreign alliances central to Noboa’s vision

Noboa reaffirmed his commitment to deepening ties with the United States, "Israel," and El Salvador, citing what he perceives as shared goals in security, economic development, and counter-narcotics coordination.

It is worth noting that while "Israel" faces mounting international condemnation over its ongoing genocide in Gaza, which has killed over 53,000 Palestinians, primarily women and children, Ecuador’s president is not only maintaining ties but openly pledging to deepen his country’s relationship with the Israeli occupation.

His administration views foreign investment as key to revitalizing the economy, but critics warn that overreliance on international financing could exacerbate long-term vulnerabilities.

Amid sharp political divisions, Noboa's decisive inauguration marks a challenge for Ecuador, a country grappling with an entrenched security crisis and mounting economic strain.