A growing threat of an "unconstrained three-way arms race" involving the United States, Russia, and China is emerging amid a stalled global nuclear disarmament process, according to Arms Control Association Executive Director Daryl Kimball.

Speaking at the event "From Trinity to Today: Nuclear Weapons and the Way Forward," Kimball said that progress in disarmament efforts between the world’s largest nuclear powers has ground to a halt.

"Progress and nuclear disarmament between the largest nuclear powers, the United States and Russia, is stalled, and an unconstrained three-way arms race involving the US, Russia, and China is on the horizon," he warned.

Kimball emphasized that the five recognized nuclear states, the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France, all parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), have not engaged in meaningful disarmament or risk-reduction diplomacy for over a decade.

"Unfortunately, the threats posed by nuclear weapons are growing once again. It is far too likely that nuclear weapons will be used again," Kimball added, pointing to potential flashpoints including South Asia, Europe, East Asia, and the Korean Peninsula.

The NPT, signed in 1968 and entering into force in 1970, recognized only five nuclear-armed states and prohibited the development or transfer of nuclear weapons to others. The Soviet Union’s rights and responsibilities under the treaty were later assumed by Russia.

Under the treaty, nuclear-armed states pledged not to aid other nations in acquiring nuclear weapons, while non-nuclear signatories agreed not to pursue them.

US to spend $138 bln on nuclear modernization plan

Toward the end of 2024, a report by the Roscongress Foundation revealed that the US was set to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to modernize its nuclear arsenal.

The ambitious plan includes upgrades to nuclear warheads, submarines, missiles, and bombers over the coming decades, with significant investments already underway.

The report reveals that the US Department of Energy plans to allocate $138 billion to nuclear warhead modernization between fiscal years 2024 and 2049. Another $500 billion is expected to be spent on stockpile management. In 2023 alone, the Pentagon received more than 200 upgraded nuclear warheads, marking the largest annual delivery since the Cold War.

The plan includes replacing Ohio-class submarines with new Columbia-class carriers, equipped with Trident II missiles upgraded for extended reliability. The US Navy’s 2025 budget request includes $9.9 billion for these submarines, which are expected to begin service in the 2030s.

Additionally, the Pentagon plans to retire aging B-52H and B-2A strategic bombers by 2050, replacing them with 100 next-generation B-21 Raider bombers. These aircraft will be armed with advanced B61-12 and B61-13 nuclear bombs, as well as AGM-181 Long Range Stand Off (LRSO) cruise missiles.

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