Explainer: How do French parliamentary elections work?
4 Min Read
Recent polling indicates that there is expected to be a high voter turnout in the upcoming elections, where the far-right National Rally could see a substantial increase in its share of the vote.
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Leader of the French far-right National Rally Marine Le Pen, left, and Jordan Bardella during a political meeting on June 2, 2024, in Paris. (AP)
Voting is currently underway in mainland France for the first round of parliamentary elections, with polling stations scheduled to close at 8 pm local time on Sunday. The elections, which determine the 577 seats in France's National Assembly, follow a two-round process. The composition of the new parliament will only be fully known after the second round on July 7.
French parliamentary elections poised for highest turnout since 1986
The French Interior Ministry announced that the turnout has reached 59.39% at 5:00 pm (1500 GMT), as confirmed by Al Mayadeen's correspondent, significantly surpassing the turnout at the same stage during the previous polls in 2022 by about 20 percentage points.
Projections from multiple polling organizations estimate that the final turnout could range between 67.5% and 69.7% by the time polling stations close this evening. In contrast, the final turnout in 2022 was only 47.5%.
It is worth noting that the polls indicate that this election could see the highest turnout in nearly three decades, with IPSOS specifying that it could be the highest since 1986.
The first round of the #French snap elections began today following a significant win by Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party in the European Parliament elections on June 9. pic.twitter.com/DQoHwGGc04
— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) June 30, 2024
According to the final Ipsos poll for Le Monde, overall turnout is projected to be between 61% and 65%, compared to 47.51% in 2022.
National vote share insights
Estimations at 8 pm local time will provide projections of the national vote share for parties, but this figure should be interpreted cautiously. It reflects the general level of support for each party across France, yet it does not determine the composition of the future parliament. The outcome of the 577 individual constituency votes will be influenced by local factors and candidate performances.
Recent polls suggest that the far-right National Rally could significantly increase its national vote share from just over 18% in the last parliamentary election to approximately 35%. The left alliance is expected to follow with around 27%, while Emmanuel Macron’s centrists are projected to be behind with about 21%.
Constituency results and first round expectation
Throughout Sunday evening, constituency results will gradually emerge. A few candidates may secure election in the first round, contingent upon voter participation.
Winning outright in the initial round requires a candidate to surpass 50% of the votes cast and achieve at least 25% of the total registered voters in their constituency. A higher voter turnout enhances the likelihood of meeting this 25% threshold.
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen aims to secure election in her northern constituency in the first round, with expectations that several of her incumbent MPs will also achieve this.
Meanwhile, the left is optimistic about securing parliamentary seats on Sunday night, particularly in Paris and its surrounding eastern and northern areas.
Second-round runoff dynamics and strategic negotiations
Many constituencies are expected to proceed to a second-round runoff on July 7. In this runoff, the top two candidates from each constituency will compete, along with any candidate who garners more than 12.5% of the total registered voters in that area. A higher voter turnout could facilitate reaching this 12.5% threshold.
The runoff is anticipated to involve a significant number of constituencies with three or more candidates vying for seats.
This scenario may lead to negotiations among parties on the left, traditional right, and center about potential strategic withdrawals to avoid vote splitting against the far-right candidates. Discussions and tactical maneuvers among parties are set to commence on Sunday night.
The final list of candidates qualifying for the second-round runoff will be finalized and announced by Tuesday evening.
