Devoid of certain clarity, France could be "leading the American people down a path toward a nuclear conflict" with Russia, according to an alert memorandum from the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) to the US President, published by the Ron Paul Institute.

The memorandum, titled "On the Brink of Nuclear War" the VIPS warned the White House that French President Emmanuel Macron's dispatch of approximately 2,000 troops to Ukraine "in the not-so-distant future," could snowball to become a NATO war, and ultimately, a US war.

What French troop?

According to the memorandum, the French troops will largely hold symbolic significance and would be ineffective in a modern, large-scale conflict like the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Its deployment, according to the VIPS, would not be in active conflict zones but will rather function as "a screening force/tripwire to stop Russia’s advance" or " a replacement force deployed to a non-active zone to free up Ukrainian soldiers for combat duty."

Additionally, the memorandum duly noted that the French Brigade will be augmented by smaller units from the Baltic states.

The French and the Baltic troops, thus, would be considered NATO troops deployed in a Ukrainian warzone, making them "lawful targets" based on the Law of War, said the VIPS. However, the troops would technically lack a "NATO mandate", a difference that VIPS argued would be a "distinction without a difference" from a Russian perspective.

A massive protest erupted in #France's capital, #Paris, over sending troops to #Ukraine.

Earlier, the French National Assembly approved a 10-year bilateral security agreement that will cover arms, training, and 3 billion euros of military aid to Ukraine.

Moreover, Macron… pic.twitter.com/LipjH6gT2j

— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) March 17, 2024

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The memorandum, then, explained that France seems to be "naively" assuming that its NATO membership would deter Russia from targeting its troops. However, VIPS argued, it is highly probable that Russia would indeed target any French as well as Baltic troops deployed in Ukraine.

Under such circumstances, the French President Macron might strategize that, following Russian attacks on NATO member troops, despite the lack of mandate, he could invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter, prompting a NATO alliance intervention, VIPS said.

Such intervention would "perhaps include interdiction missions against tactical targets inside Russia."

Snowballing effect

In the event NATO intervenes, Russia, "doctrinally, and by legal right", would respond by launching retaliatory strikes against targets in NATO countries prompting the latter to launch strikes against Russia. 

"If NATO then attacks strategic targets inside Russia, at that point Russia’s nuclear doctrine takes over, and NATO decision-making centers would be hit with nuclear weapons," the VIPS memorandum to the US President underscored.

This is where the threat to the US becomes imminent, as the former intelligence agents at VIPS stated "We anticipate Russia refraining from initiating a nuclear attack on the US, but rather leaving the decision up to the US to risk destruction by considering a nuclear strike on Russia," adding that "However, Russian strategic capabilities, particularly in areas like hypersonic missiles, have advanced to the point where they exceed those of the US and NATO in some respects."

In other words, the VIPS underscored that the Russian temptation to strike first may be a bit stronger this time around, and the memorandum reveals that the former intelligence officers appear somewhat less confident that Russia would want to “go second”. 

Clarification as a solution

Europe must realize that France's actions are "leading it down a path of inevitable self-destruction." Similarly, the US must understand that "need to understand that Europe is leading them to the cusp of nuclear annihilation."

Given the potential suspicion of Russian leaders towards Macron's alignment with Washington, the US must clearly state its position, the VIPS said, stressing that it must be clarified that sending troops to Ukraine by both France and the Baltic nations involved, lacks NATO authorization, and subsequently, Article 5 would not be invoked in response to Russian retaliation.

It must also be affirmed that the US has no intention of launching its nuclear arsenal in retaliation against any Russian military actions targeting French or Baltic troops in the context of the war in Ukraine.

Read more: France preparing to send 2,000 troops to Ukraine: SVR