The death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the war is about 40% higher than the figures reported by the Palestinian Health Ministry, a study published in The Lancet estimated.

The research, carried out by academics from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions, employed a statistical method known as capture-recapture analysis.

The study focused on the period between October 2023 and June 2024, estimating 64,260 deaths due to traumatic injuries during that time. Of these, 59.1% were women, children, and people over the age of 65.

By June 30, 2024, the Health Ministry in Gaza had reported 37,877 killings, but other reports suggest that over 46,000 people had been killed by that point. The Palestinian population in Gaza prior to the war was approximately 2.3 million.

International media has been unable to independently verify these figures due to Israeli restrictions on foreign journalists in Gaza. 

The Lancet study explained that the Palestinian Health Ministry's ability to maintain accurate death records deteriorated during the Israeli war, which involved raids on hospitals and disruptions to communications.

Driving the news

The study combined death toll data from the Health Ministry, an online survey for relatives to report deaths, and social media obituaries. Based on these sources, the researchers estimate that the death toll from traumatic injuries in Gaza by June 30 was between 55,298 and 78,525. The best estimate was 64,260, meaning the Health Ministry's reports undercounted the death toll by 41%. This figure represents about 2.9% of Gaza's prewar population or roughly one in 35 inhabitants.

The analysis excludes deaths from lack of healthcare, food shortages, and those believed to be buried under rubble. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) has also estimated that 11,000 people are missing and presumed dead.

Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist and lead author of the study, explained, “We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital." However, she noted that the hospital records did not always specify the cause of death, which could potentially lead to an overestimate.

Patrick Ball, a statistician from the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, praised the use of capture-recapture methods, stating, "This is a good estimate." Kevin McConway, a statistics professor at the Open University, acknowledged the uncertainty of estimating death tolls with incomplete data but commended the researchers for their thorough approach.

Reactions to the devastating death toll

Following the Lancet's study, the Government Media Office has called on the international community, the United Nations, and various global organizations to urgently assist in documenting the true death toll in Gaza.

The office also urged international bodies to help ensure rescue teams and civil defense units can access the hardest-hit areas of Gaza, allowing them to retrieve bodies and ensure they are buried with dignity, in line with religious and international humanitarian standards.

Israeli occupation wiped out 1,600 Palestinian families

In a chilling report, the Government Media Office also revealed that the Israeli military has wiped out 1,600 Palestinian families, eradicating all their members during the ongoing massacre in Gaza over the past 15 months.

The report, based on information from Gaza's Ministry of Health, states that 5,612 Palestinians from these families have been killed. Furthermore, the Israeli military is reported to have devastated 3,471 additional families, leaving only one surviving member per family, bringing the death toll among these families to over 9,000.

The toll of the Israeli genocide in Gaza on its 462nd day since October 7, 2023, reached 46,006 martyrs, with an additional 109,378 injured, many of whom have sustained critical and life-threatening wounds. These figures are part of the latest update from the Gaza Ministry of Health, underscoring the severe human cost of the ongoing Israeli war.