Norway is set to pass the rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council to Greenland, concluding what Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide described as a “difficult two years.” The challenges stemmed largely from the geopolitical consequences of the war in Ukraine and renewed tensions under US President Donald Trump, including his revived interest in asserting control over Greenland.

The Arctic Council, comprising eight Arctic states: the US, Russia, Canada, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Kingdom of Denmark (which includes Greenland), functions on the basis of unanimous consensus for decisions and public declarations.

Despite growing internal divisions, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine and evolving US policies, the council has continued operating as a unified forum.

On Monday, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide will formally transfer the council’s leadership to Greenland’s Foreign Minister, Vivian Motzfeldt. While Denmark is due to assume the presidency, the move of Greenland, a former Danish colony that remains part of the Danish realm, taking the chair is widely seen as an attempt by Copenhagen to reset its relationship with the island, especially in light of recent US efforts to reassert influence over it.

“It’s been a difficult two years to be frank because the global backdrop, the international backdrop, has made it impossible to have full business as usual,” Eide told The Guardian. He emphasized that despite the strain, “we were very eager to keep the council together, to maintain its membership and to have activity, and we are pleased to report that we achieved that.”

Progress in key areas, such as climate change, ocean protection, and northern community development, was “limited", Eide noted. Nonetheless, he affirmed that the council preserved its cooperative mechanisms despite the intense geopolitical strain caused by the war in Ukraine.

“We were able to keep it together,” he said. “And in contrast to some other formats, nobody has left and nobody has suggested that we should not continue our work, and slowly, slowly, we were able to develop some practical cooperation.”

Geopolitical tensions strain Arctic unity

Looking ahead, Greenland’s leadership term may be even more complex. Trump’s remarks about Greenland, alongside fraying US relations with other Arctic capitals and intensifying Russian assertiveness, contribute to an uncertain environment for regional diplomacy. 

Eide reflected on how the Arctic Council had historically remained distant from wider global tensions. “For a long time,” he said, “the council had managed to shield itself from politics farther south, but since the invasion of Ukraine that had become impossible.”

Still, he underscored the need for cohesion. “There is still a desire to maintain a full circumpolar Arctic council in which all Arctic states are members,” he said, adding, “There are exactly eight countries bordering the Arctic, and they are all members, and we would not be happy if that was fragmented into different organisations.”

Russia, the US, and China: Competing Arctic interests

Geopolitical competition in the Arctic has accelerated. Russia’s military posture and Trump’s statements on Greenland signal a hardening of Arctic diplomacy. 

Despite these pressures, the Arctic Council has not lost any members, and efforts to maintain multilateral cooperation have continued under Norway’s leadership.

Norway’s security policy has also undergone a significant shift. Once marked by pragmatic cooperation with Russia, particularly in the joint management of the Barents Sea, relations have sharply deteriorated.

Last week, Oslo introduced its first-ever national security strategy, citing “the most serious security situation our country has faced since the Second World War.”

Although Eide stated that Norway does not expect an immediate military threat, he underscored the necessity of preparedness due to what he perceives as Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal located near the border. “It was ‘due diligence to be prepared,’ especially with the world’s largest concentration of nuclear weapons ‘just outside our window’ on Russia’s Kola Peninsula,” he said.

While he downplayed the likelihood of open conflict in the Arctic, Eide warned of the region’s growing strategic significance. “Then the Arctic is very relevant because it’s the shortest route for missiles and planes and so on between Russia and North America, and that has always been very much on our radar,” he concluded.

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