Germany, US to coerce Ukraine into negotiations with Russia: Reports
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Germany and the US aim to provide Kiev with a specific type and quantity of weapons, ensuring that the Ukrainian army can maintain its current position but remains incapable of reclaiming territories controlled by Russia.
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Soldiers of Ukraine's state border guard have a break for tea at a military position in Sumy region, Ukraine, Friday, Nov. 24, 2023 (AP Photo/Hanna Arhirova)
Germany and the United States plan to push Ukraine to engage in negotiations with Russia by restricting both the quantity and quality of weapons provided to Kiev, as reported by the German newspaper Bild on Friday, citing a source within the German government.
According to the report, Germany and the US aim to provide Kiev with a specific type and quantity of weapons, ensuring that the Ukrainian army can maintain its current position but remains incapable of reclaiming territories controlled by Russia.
In this manner, Berlin and Washington aim to persuade Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that continuing the fight is futile, without explicitly urging him to engage in negotiations with Russia, as reported by Bild.
Should this strategy prove unsuccessful, the US and Germany are reportedly formulating a "plan B" with a potential "Minsk agreement without an agreement" scenario. In this outcome, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine would freeze without a fully negotiated border demarcation. Berlin aims to prompt Kiev into negotiations based on the existing situation on the ground, according to statements from an official cited by the newspaper.
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Not so secret?
Whether Zelensky is unaware of such plans is uncertain because several reports over the past weeks have indicated that the US and allies have been actively pushing for Ukraine to engage in peace talks with Russia.
For instance, on November 10, NBC News reported that the situation on the ground in Ukraine has come to a standstill and Western officials are beginning to discuss the possibility of holding peace negotiations with Russia.
The report details how during a recent round of negotiations in Malta, American and European diplomats encouraged Ukraine to think about what compromises it might be willing to make. This marked an important change from the public messaging surrounding the summit, which was primarily presented as a chance to increase support for Ukraine's maximalist peace plan.
According to the report, officials have privately divulged that "Ukraine likely only has until the end of the year or shortly thereafter before more urgent discussions about peace negotiations should begin."
Another report on November 19 revealed that US Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark Milley openly said that the US and allied support has not diminished but considered that Kiev's defense puts it in a better position to begin talks.
"The probability of a Ukrainian military victory, defined as kicking the Russians out of all of Ukraine, to include ... Crimea, the probability of that happening anytime soon is not high, militarily," he indicated.
"There may be a political solution where, politically, the Russians withdraw, that's possible," he added, pointing out that "you want to negotiate from a position of strength. Russia right now is on its back."
A few days ago, the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell acknowledged that the EU might not be able to meet the target of delivering 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine by the end of 2023.
He also said in remarks that Russia's defeat in the near term is not expected.
"We are facing many problems. Europe is dealing with a double challenge. Firstly, it is Ukraine where Russia's defeat is not expected in the near future," Borrell said.
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