German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that the war in Ukraine shows no indication of ending soon, despite renewed international efforts to open diplomatic channels. "There are no signs at the moment that this war is going to end anytime soon," Merz told Bild newspaper on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, he expressed hope in emerging peace initiatives, particularly those led by the Vatican, and noted that "all sides are making attempts to end the conflict by all possible diplomatic means."

Highlighting the Holy See's growing involvement, Merz stated, "I hope the Vatican will be able to bring together both Russia and Ukraine for a constructive discussion," adding that Germany must remain "active, supportive and strong."

Vatican takes center stage

The Vatican has increasingly positioned itself as a potential mediator in the war, receiving backing from key international actors. On May 16, Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin confirmed that Pope Leo XIV is ready to host peace talks between Moscow and Kiev. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed support for the initiative, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Vatican City as a "comfortable" venue for both parties.

This initiative is part of Pope Leo XIV's broader diplomatic outreach, underscored in remarks he made at the Jubilee of the Eastern Churches on May 14, "The Holy See is always ready to help bring enemies together, so that people around the world could find peace and hope."

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The Vatican also has recent experience in Ukrainian diplomacy. In 2023, under Pope Francis, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi led a humanitarian mission to Kiev, Moscow, Washington, and Beijing. That effort resulted in a framework for reuniting war-displaced children with their families, an achievement that added weight to the Holy See's credibility as a mediator.

US pivot raises European concerns

Vatican diplomacy gained urgency following a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the wake of that conversation, Trump said, "Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the war," and noted that the Vatican was "very interested" in hosting talks. He downplayed further US sanctions, stating, "There was still a chance of getting something done."

The shift has alarmed Kiev and Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Washington's withdrawal from its mediating role would empower Moscow, "The only one who benefits from that is Putin." According to the Financial Times, senior Ukrainian officials were not informed of any formal proposals by Moscow, including a "memorandum" Putin referenced during the call.

Vice President JD Vance confirmed the administration's new stance, "We're going to try to end it, but if we can't… we're not doing it anymore. This is not our war."

Kiev urges Europe to step up

In response to the apparent US retreat, Ukraine is preparing to submit a 40-page white paper to the European Union urging aggressive new sanctions on Moscow. The document calls for:

• Secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil (possibly targeting India and China)
• Seizure and repurposing of Russian state assets
• A shift to majority voting on EU sanctions to bypass the unanimity rule
• Penalties for foreign firms using EU technology to support Russia's military or economy

The timing is critical, the EU has just passed its 17th sanctions package, targeting Russia's shadow oil fleet and expanding visa bans and asset freezes.

However, Ukrainian officials warn that US disengagement could fracture EU unity. "American withdrawal from the sanctions regime would be a huge blow to the unity of the EU. Huge," a senior official told Reuters.

Read more: FT: Trump signals retreat from Ukraine as talks with Putin resume

While no formal breakthrough has occurred, momentum is slowly shifting toward Vatican-facilitated diplomacy. Ukraine has reportedly shown openness to the Vatican's proposal, while the Kremlin has yet to respond officially.