Global growth in 2023 may fall below 2% in 2023: IMF

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
11 Apr 2023 17:13
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The IMF's latest report notes that chances for the world economy to return to a pace consistent with economic growth that occurred prior to the shocks of 2022 is increasingly elusive.

The International Monetary Fund logo is seen inside its headquarters at the end of the IMF/World Bank annual meetings in Washington, US, October 9, 2016. (Reuters)

The latest report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published on Monday revealed that the probability of global growth in 2023 falling below 2% is far more likely than previous estimations suggested.

"Overall, the estimated probability of global growth in 2023 falling below 2.0 percent- an outcome that has occurred on only five occasions since 1970 (in 1973, 1981, 1982, 2009, and 2020)––is now about 25 percent: more than double the normal probability," the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook Report.

The report further noted that chances for the world economy to return to a pace consistent with economic growth that occurred prior to the shocks of 2022 are increasingly elusive.

IMF Growth Forecast: 2023

USA🇺🇸: 1.6%
Germany🇩🇪: -0.1%
France🇫🇷: 0.7%
Italy🇮🇹: 0.7%
Spain🇪🇸: 1.5%
Japan🇯🇵: 1.3%
UK🇬🇧: -0.3%
Canada🇨🇦: 1.5%
China🇨🇳: 5.2%
India🇮🇳: 5.9%
Russia🇷🇺: 0.7%
Brazil🇧🇷: 0.9%
Mexico🇲🇽: 1.8%
KSA🇸🇦: 3.1%
Nigeria🇳🇬: 3.2%
RSA🇿🇦: 0.1%https://t.co/lvRdo3zKMV pic.twitter.com/mZOsBfCYS5
— IMF (@IMFNews) April 11, 2023

It projects that the Euro area will grow by 0.8% in 2023 and at 1.4% in 2023, the report states.

In comparison with January's estimations, the figures record a revision of +0.1 percentage points and -0.2 percentage points, respectively.

China vs US growth

With regards to projections for the US' economic growth, growth for the year 2023 was projected at 1.6% while growth for 2024 was recorded at 1.1%.

The report added that the US Real GDP growth is expected to reach 1.6%. The projection marks a revision of +0.2 percentage points compared to January estimates.

It further estimates that US growth in the year 2024 is forecasted to reach 1.1%, which marks a revision of +0.1 percentage points compared to January estimates.

As for China, the report forecasts that China will maintain the economic growth projected for China at 5.3% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.

The projections remained unchanged since the IMF released a previous report in January.

The agency has historically been responsible for impoverishing already in-debt economies across the world, including Tunisia and Pakistan.

On March 26, IMF director Kristalina Georgieva said that China is expected to contribute significantly to global economic development, making up approximately one-third of it in 2023.

The "strong rebound" in the Chinese economy, according to Georgieva, is significant for the entire world.

Georgieva emphasized that China's recovery provides a welcome boost to the global economy, noting that, according to an IMF study, an increase in China's GDP growth of one percentage point results in average growth of three percentage points in other Asian nations.