Harris maintains lead over Trump, debate changed nothing: Poll

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: ABC News and Ipsos
16 Sep 2024 21:30

A recent ABC News and Ipsos poll shows US Vice President Kamala Harris retaining her lead over former President Donald Trump.

Listen

This combination of photos shows Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee VP Kamala Harris during a presidential debate in the US on Sept. 10, 2024. (AP)

A new poll conducted by ABC News and Ipsos shows United States of America Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump among likely voters, with the margin of the race remaining unchanged from polling conducted prior to the first debate, earlier in late August

According to the survey, Harris holds 52% support from likely voters compared to Trump’s 46%, reflecting the same margin observed in the poll conducted from August 23 to 27. Among independent likely voters, Harris leads with 53% support compared to 44% for Trump.

The poll also indicates that Harris has a notable advantage among women likely to vote, who favor her 55% to 44%. In contrast, men are evenly split, with each candidate receiving 49% support.

Harris demonstrates a significant lead among voters under 30, securing 59% of this demographic compared to Trump’s 40%. Within this group, younger women back Harris by a substantial 38-point margin (68% to 30%), while younger men are nearly evenly divided (51% Harris to 48% Trump).

The survey reveals little shift in voter sentiment regarding key campaign issues. Trump is still more trusted on handling the economy (46% to 39% for Harris) and immigration (47% to 37% for Harris), while Harris is viewed as more trustworthy on abortion (48% to 34% for Trump) and protecting American democracy (45% to 38% for Trump).

It is worth noting that the ABC News poll was conducted online from September 11 to 13 among a random national sample of 3,276 adults, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Among the 2,196 likely voters, the error margin is also plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Overseas votes could swing US election results in battleground states

A new battleground in the US election has emerged: voters living outside the US, the Financial Times reported.

High-profile Democrats, including former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, former Texas congressman Beto O'Rourke, and former Attorney General Eric Holder, are being deployed to target millions of Americans residing abroad who are considered potential Kamala Harris supporters.

In a social media message, Pelosi said, “This election is too important to sit on the sidelines,” adding that “Americans abroad were instrumental in winning key races in 2016 for [senator] Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, [governor] Roy Cooper in North Carolina, and in 2020 and 2022 for President [Joe] Biden, Senator [Jon] Ossoff and Senator [Raphael] Warnock."

There are believed to be 9 million Americans residing overseas, as per US State Department estimates. According to the US Election Assistance Commission's report on the 2020 presidential election, almost 1.2 million ballots were distributed to eligible abroad voters, with more than 900,000 returned and counted.

These votes might make the difference in the swing states that will most likely determine the election since Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump are neck and neck.

Earlier last month, Democrats Abroad, a Democratic Party-affiliated network, hosted an online event to raise $100,000.

Erin Kotecki Vest, head of Democrats Abroad Canada, told the Financial Times that the organization's aim is to have as many Americans vote as soon as possible, citing that "every US election impacts your loved ones, family and friends back home. It will impact the coming years, and decades. This will impact you."

According to Kotecki Vest, in the 2020 election, approximately 19,000 Georgians residing abroad voted, and Biden won the state by 11,779 votes. Similarly, in Arizona, 18,453 voters abroad cast ballots, and Biden won the state with 10,457 votes.

"We most certainly are a deciding factor in the election and many don't realize just how crucial," she went on.

Overseas GOP members are not represented by a party-affiliated group, but Anna Kelly, the spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, stated that her organization was "working hand-in-glove with the Trump campaign to reach all eligible voters — including those abroad — to turn out the GOP electorate in an unprecedented and win on November 5."