A small, globe-trotting balloon declared "lost in action" by an Illinois-based hobbyist organization on Feb. 15 has been revealed to be likely one of three mystery objects shot down by four heat-seeking missiles launched by US Air Force planes between Feb. 10.

At the very least, the circumstantial evidence is intriguing. The club's silver-coated, party-style "pico balloon" reported its last position on Feb. 10 at 38,910 ft. off the west coast of Alaska, and a popular forecasting tool—HYSPLIT NOAA's model—projected the cylindrically shaped object would be floating high over the central part of the Yukon Territory on Feb. 11. On the same day, a Lockheed Martin F-22 shot down an unknown object of comparable description and altitude in the same general vicinity.

Other famous members of the small, pico-ballooning enthusiast community, which combines ham radio and high-altitude ballooning into a single, very inexpensive pastime, have reservations.

Ron Meadows, the founder of Scientific Balloon Solutions (SBS), a Silicon Valley company that makes purpose-built pico balloons for hobbyists, educators, and scientists, said, “I tried contacting our military and the FBI—and just got the runaround—to try to enlighten them on what a lot of these things probably are. And they’re going to look not too intelligent to be shooting them down.”

An F-22 for a $12 balloon

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The descriptions of all three mysterious objects shot down between February 10 and 12 correspond to the shapes, heights, and payloads of the little pico balloons, which can be purchased for $12-180 each, depending on the model.

“I’m guessing probably they were pico balloons,” said Tom Medlin, a retired FedEx engineer, and Amateur Radio Roundtable co-host. Medlin has three pico balloons in the air, one in each hemisphere.

Last Tuesday, US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby admitted that the US could not ascertain that objects in its airspace are for surveillance purposes.

Only in the last decade has it become possible to launch high-altitude, circumnavigational pico balloons. Meadows and his son Lee determined that the amount of helium gas required to create a standard latex balloon neutrally buoyant at altitudes above 43,000 feet could be calculated. The balloons are equipped with an 11-gram tracker on a tether as well as HF and VHF/UHF antennae to transmit their positions to ham radio listeners all over the world. Numerous dozen similar balloons are airborne at any given time, with some circling the globe several times before malfunctioning or failing for various reasons. The launch teams almost never recover their balloons.

The balloons can take many shapes. Some enthusiasts continue to use regular Mylar party balloons and a set of published equations to determine how much gas to inject. However, because round-shaped Mylar balloons sometimes cannot go higher than 20,000-30,000 feet, some pico balloonists have upgraded to alternative materials.

Pico balloons, which weigh less than 6 pounds, are exempt from most FAA airspace regulations, as per Meadows and Medlin. Because three countries—North Korea, Yemen, and the United Kingdom—restrict broadcasts from balloons in their airspace, the community has built geofencing software into the tracking devices. The balloons continue to soar over the countries, but their positions are not transmitted over their airspace.

The community is also concerned that their balloons will be shot down next. According to Medlin, one of his balloons, call sign W5KUB-112, is expected to cross US airspace on February 17. It has already circled the globe several times, but its most recent path took it over China before entering either Mexican or US territory.

“I hope,” Medlin said, “that in the next few days when that happens, we’re not real trigger-happy and start shooting down everything.”