The recent ISIS attack on a bus carrying troops from the Syrian Army's auxiliary forces, which resulted in the martyrdom of 22 members of the al-Quds Brigade, was not the group's most severe attack in 2024. Numerous assaults on civilians and military personnel, particularly during the truffle-gathering season, preceded it.

This represents an unprecedented escalation in the organization's attack patterns, methods, and impact as they have been relatively dormant since 2020. Since the onset of 2024, where 150 attacks have been recorded, with nearly two-thirds occurring in areas controlled by the Syrian Army, its auxiliary forces, and its allies, the group's attacks have been on the rise.

Given that this figure spans a period of less than five months, it is significant and indicates that the organization has gained support financial and military support in a manner it had been lacking for years. This suggests that it is planning further attacks, possibly escalating them to the point of regaining control of areas close to the desert, in an attempt to stage a military comeback.

That is a red line for the Syrian Army, and as a result, it has recently intensified its airstrikes in light of the organization's movements, monitored the activity of its cells, and launched preemptive strikes against it.

"Most of the ISIS terrorist organization's attacks in the Syrian Army-controlled desert originate from the Tabqa farms to the east and the 55 km area adjacent to the Tanf base on the Syrian-Jordanian-Iraqi tri-border," sources told Al Mayadeen.

According to the sources, "the sites from which the attacks are carried out reveal US military and intelligence support for these cells to keep them alive and exploit them to destabilize areas under Syrian government control, particularly along the Damascus-Baghdad highway."

"Washington benefits from the organization's maintenance of offensive capabilities to maintain the pretext of pursuing the organization's cells as a primary reason for its presence in Syria," the sources added.

Motives behind the escalation

In addition to a shared US-ISIS interest in escalating attacks in Syrian Army-controlled areas, the organization's leadership seeks to regain some of its military strength by directing its elements to carry out attacks in various areas, with a focus on Syrian government-controlled areas, to demonstrate the ISIS leadership's ability to regain at least some of their former capabilities following a period of weakness between 2019 and 2023, during which the organization lost four of its leaders.

The Iraqi Abu Hafs al-Hashemi al-Qurashi took over the organization's leadership in August 2023.

It appears that Abu Hafs has been motivating his terrorists to resume their activities and attacks more vigorously to establish that ISIS still exists and still has vitality and the ability to survive despite not releasing any visual or audio statements to that effect.

The new leader may have urged his fighters to step up their individual operations, which have come to be known in the organization's ideology as "lone wolves" due to their role in striking targets quickly and effectively and potentially paving the way for a move to seize entire villages or towns on the border in an attempt for ISIS to return to gain ground and return on the battlefield militarily after the long period of stagnation.

Well-informed sources told Al Mayadeen that ISIS "suffered from internal Shura Council disagreements after the killing of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019 due to the persistent trend for the organization's leader to be of Iraqi nationality, particularly from East Asian nationalities. However, the new leader appears to have succeeded in bridging or at least reducing these differences."

"He has worked to escalate military operations to prove his right to lead the organization and the leadership's ability to regain control at this critical stage," the sources, informed on the structures of jihadist organizations in Syria, added.

Any outcomes?

Despite the noticeable escalation in ISIS attacks in the Syrian desert, which have become almost daily occurrences, the organization has failed to develop its offensive capabilities despite possessing tools it did not have in the past, such as vehicles and guided missiles. This reveals the support the organization is likely receiving from the United States, as it is the only party with an interest in keeping it alive.

However, the organization has failed to seize even a single inch of territory previously liberated from it, as a large-scale attempt to seize two towns in the countryside of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor failed after the Syrian Army thwarted these attempts.

Both Syrian and Russian air forces have played a significant role in thwarting ISIS's efforts to build offensive capabilities and capitalize on the support provided by the US-led international "coalition." They have achieved this by striking the organization's sites and regional headquarters while pursuing its cells in the deserts of Raqqa, Deir Ezzor, and Homs, effectively depriving it of a substantial portion of its strength.

Available information suggests a plan for a comprehensive combing operation across the desert to eliminate any remaining ISIS cells. However, data indicates that the majority of these cells move between areas under US occupation in the east and south of the country, retreating to those areas after carrying out their assigned missions. This implies that definitively eradicating the organization's activities is contingent on the withdrawal or removal of US forces from the regions they occupy in Syria.