Yoel Guzansky and Udi Dekel, two senior researchers at the Israeli National Security Research Institute, completed a study examining the issue of Israeli-Saudi normalization, which has been constantly obstructed since Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was launched on October 7, 2023. 

According to the researchers, "Israel", after six months of the war, is now faced with making a strategic decision that combines ending its genocide in Gaza [which includes the complete reconstruction of the Strip and ensuring its stability], sealing the deal that normalizes bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia, and pushing for a solution for what the institute labeled as the "Israeli-Palestinian conflict". 

The study mentions that this aids "Israel" in its quest to enhance relations with Saudi Arabia and the United States. 

Read more: Why is Saudi Arabia open to normalize relations with 'Israel'?

Normalization to spite Iran? 

Dekel and Guzansky noted that "Israel" would greatly benefit from normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia, including Saudi Arabian interference in Palestinian affairs, particularly in managing Gaza and rebuilding it after the war. 

They added that although the onslaught in Gaza was still ongoing, political calls aimed at establishing official ties between "Israel" and Saudi Arabia did not stop, with constant brokering by the United States. The researchers claimed that Hamas managed to obstruct the normalization process by launching its October 7 operation. 

Allegedly, the reason for that [Israeli-Saudi calls] was that the US and Saudi Arabia did not change their stance, even after six months of the brutal genocide, and still insisted on establishing a new regional regime led by Washington, and aimed at confronting Iran. 

The current US administration reportedly established a new "doctrine" for the Middle East, which includes several paths such as curbing Iran's activity in the region, pushing for a demilitarized Palestinian state formed from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, forming an extensive security alliance with Saudi Arabia [which includes the official normalization of ties between "Israel" and Saudi Arabia], and enhancing economic growth and prosperity in the Middle East. 

However, it was noted that there is a significant challenge in the process of normalization with Saudi Arabia, encompassed in the Saudi royal family acknowledging that the Palestinian issue is not minor, and cannot be restrained or neglected. This has been swaying Saudi Arabia away from being linked to "Israel", and enhancing its solidarity with Palestine instead, thus raising the "price" of its demands from the occupation. 

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In this context, both researchers found that one of the results of the war was raising the price of normalization with Saudi Arabia in what the Arab country is demanding from "Israel" regarding Palestine; a price the Israeli occupation refuses to pay [so far]. 

Read more: Israeli-Saudi normalization in Checkmate, a realist analysis

The terms of an Israeli-Saudi agreement

Dekel and Guzansky stated that "Israel" is demanding increased Saudi Arabian intervention in the Palestinian sphere exhibited in the reconstruction and governance of the Gaza Strip and handling the popular and public opinion that has solidified against "Israel" among vast Arab communities. 

For instance, Saudi Arabia would have to handle 90% of Khaliji citizens, including Saudi Arabians, who oppose the normalization of relations with "Israel". 

In this context, however, the researchers warned that the gap between governmental policies in the Gulf, and the public opinion of the citizens of the Gulf, is only expanding, particularly when it comes to the Palestinian cause. 

The researchers pointed out that against the backdrop of the war in Gaza and its outcomes, changes have occurred in the conditions of both parties (Israeli and Saudi) for signing a bilateral normalization agreement. Saudi Arabia now insists on signing defense agreements with the United States against Iran, and on obtaining assistance [and approval] from it to establish civilian nuclear infrastructure without Israeli objection. Saudi Arabia also wants to ensure an Israeli commitment to continue enhancing the "two-state solution" and establish a "renewable" Palestinian authority.

"Israel" on the other hand, reportedly expects Saudi Arabia's agreement to form, or at least participate in forming an Arab workforce that would govern and re-establish Gaza, as well as its agreement to find a new Palestinian Authority that would be able to govern the Strip with Saudi assistance. 

A 'Golden' Opportunity...

The researchers further warned that the "cost-benefit" criterion for Arab regimes' normalization with the occupation changed at the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Flood war, because "Israel", from the perspective of Arab regimes, failed to defeat Hamas, which they "detest", but scenes of destruction and killing in Gaza trigger unrest among the masses in Arab countries that have normalized or seek normalization with "Israel".

Therefore, Saudi Arabia and other "neutral" Arab countries currently prefer not to get involved in promoting a settlement in Gaza that could end the war. This is because it requires these regimes to actively participate in the solution, such as having a role in an Arab task force to manage Gaza and its reconstruction.

In their conclusion, Dekel and Guzansky warned that "Israel's" refusal to define a political horizon for the "Israeli-Palestinian conflict", or to allow for a conditional and gradual integration of the Palestinian Authority into the administration of Gaza, would further distance the Israeli-Saudi agreement. This could also gradually improve relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia without linking it to Saudi-Israeli normalization.

Consequently, "Israel" would miss out on two strategic opportunities: forming a regional power bloc led by the United States, including Saudi Arabia against Iran and the Axis of Resistance, and involving neutral states, including Saudi Arabia, in bolstering the Palestinian Authority and achieving stability in Gaza. 

They additionally warned that "Israel" would miss the opportunity for normalization with the Arab and Islamic worlds and would lose the strategic opportunity to normalize and integrate with regional countries. This would serve as an appropriate response to Hamas and Iran, both of which have worked to obstruct the process of rapprochement and normalization between the occupation and Arab countries (specifically Saudi Arabia).

The researchers further added that the currently stalled Israeli-Saudi normalization agreement would grant "Israel" economic gains and improve its legitimacy in both the Arab and Islamic worlds. "Israel" allegedly must ensure that it does not let this "golden" opportunity slip, because it may permanently kill all chances of normalization with Saudi Arabia, which could be detrimental on all fronts.