Concerns about the stability of the US-Japan alliance and potential trade tariffs are weighing heavily on Tokyo as Donald Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, arrives for high-level discussions, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

Hegseth is set to meet with Japan’s defense minister, Gen Nakatani, on Sunday to explore deeper military cooperation. Nakatani emphasized the importance of the talks, stating they would have “great significance” for Japan’s security. Japanese officials indicated that discussions may also touch on Tokyo’s planned defense spending.

Hegseth’s visit follows Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House last month. While Tokyo initially regarded that meeting as a success, growing uncertainty has since set in. As with other US allies, including Canada and Germany, Japan is increasingly uneasy about the future of its alliance with Washington.

Christopher Johnstone, a former National Security Council official now at The Asia Group, noted that “it’s an unsettled time in Tokyo, and the euphoria over Ishiba’s visit to the White House in February is a distant memory.” He added that Hegseth’s visit “will spotlight the fundamental question of whether a meaningful alliance agenda is possible with the threat of tariffs looming in the background.”

Tokyo is particularly wary of Trump’s plan to announce new tariffs on April 2, which could impact Japan. Additionally, officials are alarmed by recent US remarks about burden-sharing within the alliance.

Tokyo faces deepening uncertainty over US security commitment

A Japanese official acknowledged the growing divide in Tokyo’s strategic outlook, with some believing potential alliance challenges remain distant while others fear the relationship is already in crisis. “It is very hard to say that you can definitely rely on the US now, and as soon as you allow that thought to exist, you have to admit that Japan needs to do a lot more to defend itself,” he told the Financial Times.

Further complicating matters, Trump’s nominee for undersecretary of defense, Elbridge Colby, suggested Japan should increase its defense budget beyond its current goal of 2% of GDP by 2027. Additionally, George Glass, the nominee for US ambassador to Japan, indicated that Washington would discuss Tokyo contributing more to offset the cost of stationing American troops in Japan.

Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said, as quoted by FT, that Japan would “relentlessly look into ways to reinforce deterrence and response capabilities at its own initiative.” However, he rejected setting a firm spending target at this stage. “[Setting] a numerical target first is not how it works,” Kato explained. “We will have to take into consideration how the security model will evolve over the next 10 years, and we will add up necessary and concrete defense spending that will be necessary for Japan over the next 10 years.”

Ken Weinstein, a Japan specialist at the Hudson Institute, observed that Trump is now applying more pressure on Japan than during his first term, when he had a strong personal rapport with then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Recent reports in the US media suggested the Pentagon might reconsider a plan to upgrade the US-Japan alliance by enhancing joint operational planning. While this raised concerns in Tokyo, sources familiar with the matter described it as a routine review under a new administration.

“After the president questioned the logic of the security treaty earlier this month, Tokyo will be looking for an affirmation of the US commitment to Japan’s defense — including next steps in strengthening the command relationship between US and Japanese forces,” Johnstone said.

Tokyo was particularly unsettled last week when Trump announced that the US would sell a downgraded version of the F-47 fighter jet, currently under development by Boeing, to allies. Justifying the decision, Trump remarked, “Someday maybe they’re not our allies.”

“In the past, Japan would have taken a phrase like that and guessed or hoped that Japan was not included in the theoretical list of non-reliable allies,” the Japanese official said. “The difficulty now is that we just don’t know how to translate what is being said.”

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