KSA advocates 'plan B' excluding 'Israel' from vital agreement with US
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Riyadh is pursuing a scaled-down accord with Washington due to the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza and Netanyahu's opposition to Palestinian statehood.
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Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, in Riyadh on Monday (AFP/Getty Images)
The United States and Saudi Arabia have formulated a series of pacts regarding security and technology exchange, initially intended to be part of a larger Middle East resolution encompassing "Israel" and the Palestinians, The Guardian reported on Wednesday.
Due to the lack of a ceasefire in Gaza and Benjamin Netanyahu's staunch opposition to establishing a Palestinian state, alongside "Israel's" potential offensive on Rafah, Saudi Arabia is advocating for a scaled-down "plan B" that does not involve "Israel", the report added.
In this scenario, the United States and Saudi Arabia would reportedly enter into agreements covering a bilateral defense pact, American assistance in developing Saudi Arabia's civil nuclear energy sector, and extensive cooperation in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence.
Under Riyadh's proposed "plan B", "Israel" would receive an offer of normalizing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia in exchange for accepting the "two-state solution" to the Israeli-Arab struggle that has persisted for 76 years, it stressed. However, completing the US-Saudi agreements would not be contingent on approval from the Netanyahu government, as per the alternative proposal.
“There should be room for a less-for-less model, so the relationship with the US need not be held hostage to the whims of Israeli politics or Benjamin Netanyahu,” said Firas Maksad, senior director for strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute, as quoted by The Guardian.
Dive deeper
The Biden administration's aspirations for a significant regional settlement in the aftermath of the war on Gaza might not materialize immediately. However, forging a strong strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia could help counter the growing influence of China and Russia in the region, as per the report.
It remains uncertain whether both the administration and Congress would be willing to settle for such a compromise, it added.
During remarks in Riyadh on Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated the connection between a potential US-Saudi agreement, normalization between Saudi Arabia and "Israel", and advancements toward establishing a Palestinian state.
“The work that Saudi Arabia, the United States have been doing together in terms of our own agreements, I think, is potentially very close to completion,” Blinken told the World Economic Forum in the Saudi capital. “But then in order to move forward with normalization, two things will be required: calm in Gaza and a credible pathway to a Palestinian state.”
However, there are indications of uncertainty within the Biden administration. Officials who previously insisted that US-Saudi agreements depended on Saudi-"Israel" normalization and progress toward a "two-state solution" have become less definitive on the matter in recent days.
Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Riyadh aimed to conclude the US-Saudi agreements, which administration officials say are nearly finalized. However, they emphasized that there has been no definitive breakthrough yet, The Guardian added.
“We’re close, but they haven’t made the kind of progress that would put us past the finish line, which the Saudis had been hoping for when Blinken was due to come through,” stressed Maksad, who was in Riyadh last week.
The big picture
Initially, the US-Saudi agreement would be reached regardless of developments in "Israel" and the occupied Palestinian territories. However, an official offer would be made to "Israel", proposing Saudi normalization – a significant goal for "Israel" in foreign policy – in exchange for definitive steps toward establishing a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank, the report added.
The US anticipated that such an offer would become a significant factor in Israeli politics, particularly in subsequent elections following the potential collapse of the Netanyahu government.
The nuclear aspect of the US-Saudi agreement could permit Riyadh to operate a conversion plant for turning refined uranium powder into gas, reliable sources said, as quoted by The Guardian. However, Saudi Arabia would not initially be permitted to enrich uranium gas on its own soil, a crucial restriction on the ability to develop nuclear weapons. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously raised concerns about proliferation by stating that Riyadh would pursue nuclear arms if Iran did so.
Additionally, a separate US-Saudi agreement would establish a defense pact between the two nations, the report said.
“At a minimum, what is required from the Saudi side is something similar to what the US shares with South Korea – short of an article 5 [the Nato mutual defence clause] – but a more stringent, formal commitment to the territorial defence of the kingdom,” Maksad said.
The third component of the agreement would entail relaxed US export regulations to allow Saudi Arabia access to computer chips utilized in AI development tools, a crucial aspect of Saudi ambitions to emerge as a technological hub in the region.
All three segments of the proposed agreement involve the US providing significant strategic support to enhance Saudi security. Rather than progress in Israeli-Palestinian talks, the Saudi monarchy is positioning a purely bilateral agreement as a victory for the US in its efforts to counter "Iranian expansionism and in Washington's strategic competition, particularly against China," the report added.
In recent years, Riyadh has increasingly bolstered its arms purchases from China as it has diversified its strategic alliances. The Biden administration was caught off guard in March last year when Saudi Arabia and Iran announced a deal brokered by China to restore relations.
Due to concerns about losing its influential position in the Middle East, Biden abandoned his efforts to distance himself from MBS, despite concerns over issues such as the 2018 murder of Saudi dissident and journalist Jamal Khashoggi. This shift led to a reconciliation between the US and Saudi Arabia, symbolized by a controversial fist bump between Biden and the Crown Prince during a presidential visit to Jeddah in 2022.
Kirsten Fontenrose, a former senior director for the Gulf in the US National Security Council, referred to the nuclear, defense, and AI agreements as the "results of Biden's visit to the kingdom marked by the fist bump."
“The deal was drafted with the assumption that the Saudis would bring normalization with Israel to the table,” Fontenrose said, as quoted by The Guardian.
“But the Israeli government is currently placing a higher value on blocking the formation of a Palestinian state than on normalizing with Saudi. So the deal now being discussed is bilateral,” Fontenrose added.
The White House is hesitant to offer significant concessions without a normalization deal that could significantly impact the Palestinian struggle. Opposition to such concessions is expected to be even stronger in Congress, particularly due to concerns about the kingdom's poor human rights record, including the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
On Tuesday, it was disclosed that Manahel al-Otaibi, a young Saudi women's rights activist, had been sentenced to 11 years in prison by an anti-terrorism court in secret. She was arrested for her advocacy for women's rights and her choice of clothing.
“If the deal does not include commitments from Saudi on China and Iran, for example, in exchange for a security guarantee, Congress will be asking, ‘What’s in it for the US?’” Fontenrose said.
Maksad proposed that the Biden administration should consider the "great-power competition" rationale as sufficient for signing a deal with the Saudis.
“If you can bind Saudi Arabia to the United States in a strategic alliance, in a way that marginalizes Russia and China in this part of the world, that’s a significant win for this administration,” he said, as quoted by The Guardian. “That is something that consolidates the Middle East for the foreseeable future as being within the American realm,” he stressed.
Even if this were satisfactory for the White House, it's highly unlikely to suffice for the US Senate. Without Senate approval, any security assurances and commitments to provide technological assistance from the US are likely to be short-lived, as per the report.
“Without Senate approval, this is a non-starter, and without the Israel piece of this, a Senate approval is non-starter,” said Matt Duss, a former foreign policy advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders now the Executive Vice-President at the Center for International Policy as quoted by The Guardian.
“I remain confounded by how obsessed this administration seems with this deal, given all the obvious downsides and given the fact that we’re not making a deal with Saudi Arabia – we’re making a deal with one guy, a corrupt psychopath,” he succinctly stated.
