Lula closes polling gap before final debate with Flavio Bolsonaro
Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro enter their final presidential debate tied in the polls as Brazil’s electoral court scrutinizes Meta and X over unequal treatment claims.
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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, right, who is running for reelection, points as opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro looks on during a televised presidential debate one week before the presidential runoff election in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026 (AP)
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has drawn level with challenger Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of their final televised debate on Friday, as a bitter dispute over social media platforms adds pressure to the closing days of the presidential campaign.
A Datafolha survey released Thursday showed both candidates at 50 percent of voting intentions before Sunday’s runoff. The finding marks an improvement for Lula, who trailed his right-wing opponent by four percentage points in polls published two weeks earlier.
Flavio, a senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, unexpectedly finished ahead in the first round. That result prompted a surge of rallies and online organizing by the Brazilian left as it sought to rebuild support for the 80-year-old incumbent.
Meta and X face electoral court scrutiny
The contest has increasingly moved into the courts, where both campaigns this week sought their opponent’s disqualification over accusations of social media misuse.
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court on Thursday gave Meta and X 24 hours to explain their policies governing artificial intelligence and the distribution of political content and advertising. Both companies face fines if they fail to comply with the order.
The decision follows a complaint by Lula’s campaign accusing the platforms of abusing economic power and misusing media channels to favor Flavio Bolsonaro while restricting the reach of the president’s campaign content.
The Electoral Public Prosecutor’s Office maintains that Meta failed to establish safeguards ensuring equal treatment for the two presidential campaigns. Lula’s team has accused the company, which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, of electoral “interference” through “algorithmic manipulation”.
Meta denies favoring either candidate, although it acknowledged that technical errors had led to some of Lula’s campaign advertisements being mistakenly deactivated.
Lula challenges Meta’s ‘digital empire’
During a Thursday livestream with the WhatsApp channel “Lula’s Army”, which has more than eight million followers, Lula urged supporters to defeat Meta’s “digital empire”.
“Meta will have to be reinvented; it cannot simply assume it can go on deceiving humanity forever.”
Joao Brant, an advisor overseeing digital strategy for Lula’s campaign, told AFP that the president’s team was concerned about “the obvious alignment between Meta and the US government.”
Flavio has brought his own allegations against the incumbent, accusing Lula of “abuse of power” through the alleged large-scale distribution of information about government actions on an official WhatsApp account during the election period.
Welfare and security shape competing agendas
Beyond the legal confrontation, the candidates are offering sharply different priorities for Brazil.
Flavio has pledged to reduce government spending and expand prison capacity by 500,000 places as part of a tougher approach to crime. At a Wednesday rally in Fortaleza, he said he needed to “debunk a lot of fake news,” including allegations that his spending plans would eliminate social welfare programs.
Lula has emphasized social protections while presenting his candidacy as a defense of democracy against the Bolsonaro family’s return to the presidency.
“Change doesn't mean depriving people of their rights,” Lula said.
At a left-wing demonstration in Belo Horizonte, 22-year-old Gabriela Ferreira explained her support for the president through her dependence on public assistance.
Lula “represents everything that I am,” she said.
“I am poor. I am a student. I depend on a scholarship to do my degree.”
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup following his defeat to Lula in the 2022 election. A victory for his son would return the family’s political movement to power and reinforce a rightward shift across Latin America encouraged by US President Donald Trump.
Final debate brings demands for fact-checking
Friday’s encounter also brings pressure on broadcaster Globo to address misinformation. A petition signed by more than one million people has called for live fact-checking during the debate.
The candidates’ previous meeting on Sunday was dominated by personal attacks, with limited discussion of policy. A subsequent Quaest survey found that the proportion of undecided voters had risen from seven to 14 percent.
Political analyst Leandro Gabiati, director of consultancy Dominium, told AFP that Lula’s recent gains had yet to secure a clear advantage.
“Lula is on an upward trajectory, but he has not yet landed a decisive blow to turn the tide. This debate could be his last chance,” he said.
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