Russian Ambassador-at-Large Grigory Mashkov has warned that the expansion of the US global missile defense system could eliminate the possibility of further reductions in strategic offensive weapons.

In an article published in International Affairs, Mashkov argued that the ongoing development of these defense systems undermines strategic stability and challenges previously established arms control agreements.

"The development of the US global missile defense system essentially puts an end to the prospects for reducing strategic offensive arms and maintaining strategic stability on the same terms," Mashkov wrote.

Concerns Over a Shifting Strategic Balance

The Russian diplomat noted that the traditional bilateral approach to strategic stability between Russia and the US is no longer viable, given the increasing number of global actors influencing missile capabilities.

He warned that Western policies aimed at weakening Russia could prompt Moscow to reconsider its commitments to arms limitations and instead pursue an expansion of its nuclear and missile stockpiles.

"In the current realities, it is no longer possible to talk about strategic stability in its classic bilateral context if we do not want to drive ourselves into another illusion," Mashkov stated.

"There are many players in the international arena who influence the global missile situation. It is possible that in the current conditions of confrontation with the West with its open policy of inflicting strategic damage on Russia, we may face the question of moving away from the limitations of nuclear and missile arsenals in favor of their quantitative and qualitative increase," he added.

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Mashkov's remarks come amid a broader shift in Russia’s approach to nuclear agreements. In November 2023, Moscow officially withdrew its ratification of the  Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), marking a significant departure from its previous commitments to arms control.

Earlier that year, in February 2023, Russia also suspended its participation in the New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between the US and Russia.

While suspension does not equate to full withdrawal, these moves indicate Moscow’s increasing skepticism toward arms limitation frameworks.

Mashkov's statements reflect growing concerns over a potential arms race, particularly in response to Washington’s missile defense initiatives. He also pointed to the accelerating militarization of space and the role of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing in shaping future defense capabilities.