NATO’s biggest EU members float defense pact with Ukraine: WSJ

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The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) stated in a report on Saturday that while some of Kiev's Western allies have growing concerns about its ability to "retake all of its territory," officials from Germany, France, and Britain said that they see stronger ties between NATO and Ukraine as a means to encourage Kiev to begin peace talks with Russia later this year.

Last week, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled a draft agreement that would grant Ukraine much greater access to cutting-edge military hardware, gear, and ammunition so that it can defend itself after the conflict is over. The proposal, according to him, ought to be discussed at the annual NATO meeting in July.

The initiative is supported by Paris and Berlin, and all three countries see it as a way to bolster Ukrainian confidence and provide the country's government with a reason to begin talks with Russia, according to French, German, and British officials, adding that the officials were cautious to stress that "Ukraine alone would decide when and how any peace talks would begin."

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Sunak said on Friday that in order to give Ukraine a "decisive advantage" in battle, the West should arm it with warplanes. Officials from the three nations claim that the public rhetoric conceals deepening private doubts among politicians in the UK, France, and Germany on whether Ukraine will be able to drive the "Russians out of eastern Ukraine and Crimea," as well as a belief that the West can only support the war effort for so long. 

“We keep repeating that Russia mustn’t win, but what does that mean? If the war goes on for long enough with this intensity, Ukraine’s losses will become unbearable,” a senior French official said. “And no one believes they will be able to retrieve Crimea.”

Washington encourages arming Kiev 'enough'

Such statements stand in stark contrast to those made this week in public by President Biden and other Western leaders, according to WSJ, who urged cooperation in the face of what they called "Russian bullying." No one brought up the possibility of Kiev and Russia starting negotiations soon.

Biden attempted to unite the West in a fiery address in Warsaw by stating: "Appetites of the autocrat cannot be appeased; they must be opposed."

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Officials from the United States chose not to comment on the proposed NATO security pact, but Washington has stated that it wants Ukraine to have enough weapons after the conflict to fend off any further "Russian aggression," according to WSJ. 

The German government declined to comment, and requests for comment from the British and French governments' spokespeople were not quickly answered.

Western pressure for peace talks 

According to WSJ, when the three leaders met in Paris earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reportedly told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he needed to start considering peace talks with Russia.

Witnesses suggest that Macron told Zelensky that while he had "been a fantastic war leader," he would ultimately need to transition into political statesmanship and make challenging decisions.

Last weekend, after a security conference in Munich, French President Emmanuel Macron made history by becoming one of the first Western leaders to openly question whether either Russia or Ukraine could succeed militarily.

Read next: NATO’s biggest EU members push Kiev to peace talks over losses - WSJ

He addressed French media, “What we need now is for Ukraine to launch a military offensive which pushes back the Russian front in order to open the way for a return to negotiations.”

On the other hand, Zelensky claimed on Friday that the Western leaders had turned down his repeated requests for a meeting before the military operation took place, according to WSJ, adding that given the "atrocities" committed by Russia over the previous year, such talks are impossible.

“Now it is us who cannot do it,” Zelensky said. “There is nothing to talk about and nobody to talk about over there.”

Changing "Kremlin's calculus" 

Another objective of the NATO pact, according to a British source, would be to alter the Kremlin's calculations. Moscow may come to believe that it is "unable to accomplish its military goals" if it sees that the West is willing to gradually increase its military obligations and assistance to Ukraine, according to WSJ. 

As the fighting rages on in the subsequent weeks, France and Germany have hinted that they won't be sending Ukraine any new kinds of weaponry, according to the report. Officials claim that while Britain is teaching Ukrainian pilots how to fly jet fighters, the longer-term goal is to prevent "Russia from attacking again."

US calls for "durable peace" 

Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated the same thing in Munich: "The war must end in what he termed a durable peace." That entails making sure Ukraine has the "ability to fend off aggression" and, if necessary, to successfully defend against it, he continued.

“We have to be thinking—and we are—about what the postwar future looks like to ensure that we have security and stability for Ukrainians and security and stability in Europe,” he added.

The plan from the UK, France, and Germany could theoretically be vetoed by any NATO member, but since the alliance relies on consensus, such an initiative wouldn't even be brought up at a summit, according to WSJ. 

The offer falls short of the full membership in NATO that Ukraine has applied for. Still, a more limited agreement could be a step in the right direction as long as it is part of a process that should at some point in the future end in a membership, said Andriy Melnyk, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister.

“We would like to have security guarantees on the path to NATO,” Zelensky said in a press conference on Friday.

'No NATO forces in Ukraine, only weapons' 

The pact being floated wouldn’t include any commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine, the three countries’ officials said. Neither would it offer Kiev so-called Article 5 protection, which requires all members to come to another’s rescue if it is attacked and requests assistance. But they said it would provide Ukraine with the military means to deter any future "Russian attack", according to WSJ.

While the details are still being worked out, a number of these officials stated that Ukraine could gain access to a wide range of NATO standard weapon systems and further integrate its armed forces into the supply network of the Western defense industry.

Germany has expressed a readiness to provide long-term assistance, including aerial defenses, heavy artillery, tanks, and ammunition, while Britain has expressed interest in providing warplanes. Individual members would also continue to provide bilateral military support to Ukraine, according to officials.

“The NATO summit must produce a clear offer to Ukraine, also to give Zelensky a political win that he can present at home as an incentive for negotiations,” the British official said. “Russia’s wars have a tendency to freeze and then unfreeze, and that is why Ukraine will need more guarantees from us.”

The London-Paris-Berlin proposal represents one potential set of security assurances that could allow Ukraine to feel confident Russia wouldn’t use a cease-fire as a pause before launching a so-called renewed "invasion," according to the report. G7 nations, which include France, the UK, and Germany, said in a statement that they are prepared to make “security and other commitments to help Ukraine defend itself, secure its free and democratic future, and deter future Russian aggression.”

Moreover, Central European officials have so far said that the proposal has only been discussed on the margins but they are broadly reluctant to sign off on any long-term NATO status for Ukraine that falls short of full membership in the alliance, according to WSJ.