Speculation is mounting within the Israeli occupation government that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may soon opt to dismantle his coalition and call for early elections. This follows growing internal unrest over the unresolved issue of Haredi military enlistment, with senior ministers indicating that the premier could choose to act preemptively if the ultra-Orthodox parties appear ready to topple the government.

Last November, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid called on the Israeli government to deny public funding, passports, and travel privileges to ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredim) who refuse to serve in the military. The Haredi community, which accounts for approximately 13% of "Israel's" population, traditionally avoids conscription, dedicating their lives to Torah study.

According to a senior minister who spoke to Zman Yisrael, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew-language sister outlet, “Netanyahu knows there is no solution to the Haredi enlistment matter. He is bidding for time and will eventually say that ‘on this important matter, I didn’t cave.’ This way, he’ll at least win the election with the support of reservists and civilians who can’t live with the inequality in military conscription.”

The issue has long polarized the political landscape, while leaders within the ultra-Orthodox community continue to reject mandatory service in the Israeli occupation forces, calling it an effort to secularize their youth. Yeshiva students are instructed to resist enlistment, while successive governments have failed to pass a sustainable law regulating the matter.

Netanyahu may preempt collapse with early elections

For years, the Israeli High Court of "Justice" has invalidated any legislation  that offers broad exemptions to the ultra-Orthodox community, asserting that such policies violate the constitutional principle of "equality". In a landmark ruling last year, the court found the decades-long exemption framework unlawful, prompting Haredi parties to demand new legislation to legally enshrine their draft avoidance.

While Netanyahu has managed to delay critical decisions on the issue throughout the ongoing war on Gaza, this round of internal dissent appears more serious. Political rivals are escalating pressure, and coalition members are issuing renewed threats of withdrawal, leaving the prime minister with few viable paths to maintain stability without alienating key blocs.

High Court ruling leaves no legal room for compromise

As the legal clock ticks, there is little indication that a compromise on the ultra-Orthodox IOF draft is in sight. The Israeli coalition crisis has entered a phase where political survival may depend on bold moves.

For Netanyahu, calling early elections could reframe the narrative, allowing him to shift blame onto the judiciary and deflect mounting criticism while appealing to a broader segment of voters disillusioned with draft inequalities.

Without a clear resolution, the Haredi exemption law will likely remain one of the most divisive flashpoints in the Israeli government’s domestic politics, threatening to unravel the coalition and reshuffle the political landscape once again.

'Israel' to draft 50% of ultra-Orthodox men into military service

Last December, "Israel's" Supreme Court ordered the government to begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish men into the military, overturning decades of exemptions for yeshiva students. At the time, the ruling reignited national debate over equal military service obligations.

Now, Security Minister Israel Katz has unveiled a draft law aiming to conscript 50% of ultra-Orthodox men by 2031. The legislation includes sanctions on draft dodgers and yeshivas whose students fail to report, and was presented to the parliament's Foreign Affairs and Security Committee on Monday.

The ultra-Orthodox community, making up around 13% of "Israel's" population, has long resisted conscription, arguing it threatens their religious life. While "secular" Israeli settlers support the measure as long overdue, ultra-Orthodox leaders have denounced it as an attack on religious freedom. With religious parties holding sway in the ruling coalition, the proposal is expected to face fierce opposition.

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