Russia will outgun Ukraine 10 to one in weeks if the US fails to approve the additional funding for military aid that has stalled in Congress, the commander of US forces in Europe warned today. 

The head of US European Command and NATO's supreme allied commander, Army General Christopher Cavoli, informed the House Armed Services Committee that Russia’s artillery advantage over Ukraine will soon double, permitting Ukraine to only fire back one shell in response to 10 Russian ones.

"The situation is extremely serious,” he stressed, adding, “The biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery … and should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying."

Cavoli emphasized that the US gives Ukraine the "lion's share" of 155mm caliber artillery shells and is also the main supplier of its ground-based air defense, which he labeled as "the most critical things on the battlefield."

As Ukraine's supply of interceptors for air defense diminishes, Russia's large-missile attacks on the country will have a larger impact, he added, stressing that “those attacks would absolutely cripple the economy and the civil society as well as the military of Ukraine if they were not defended against." 

“Without US provision of interceptors, that will happen,” he said. 

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European support is not enough

Cavoli gave his assessment of the two-year war as a $95 billion aid package for Ukraine and "Israel" that passed the Senate in February continued to stall in the House.

He said that in the meantime, Ukrainian soldiers are rationing their artillery shells as there is a possibility of the supply running out, stressing that the Russians are now outshooting them five-to-one.

To further highlight the scarcity of artillery shells and Ukraine's need for the US, Cavoli stated that Ukraine will remain “really dependent” on the US in 2024 because even though the European countries are trying to fill the artillery shortage by elevating their production rates, the 11,000 shells they are producing per year are not enough. 

“The [necessary] production level is not in sight right now. We think it’s at least months away, and that is why this is such an important time right now,” he said.

Russia has upper hand, Ukraine could lose

Conveying his optimism, Cavoli said he believes that Ukraine will be able to keep the territory it currently controls this year, however, that is only possible if the US and other allies secure a steady flow of supplies.

"Ukraine remains almost entirely dependent on external support to stay in this fight,” he said, stressing, "The severity of this moment cannot be overstated. If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine could lose."

On her part, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs Celeste Wallander said the US has had to find a way to continue to aid Ukraine without additional funding from Congress. 

She emphasized that Russia currently has the upper hand due to the delay in American weapons support to Ukraine as it forces them to choose what to defend amid Russian strikes on its infrastructure, which are "really harming" its electricity grid.

“We are already seeing the effects of the failure to pass the supplemental,” Wallander said.