OPEC+ set to approve modest 137,000 bpd oil output increase

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
2 Nov 2025 17:08

OPEC+ is expected to approve a modest 137,000 bpd production hike for December amid fears of oversupply and ongoing Russian sanctions.

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FILE -The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen outside of OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 3, 2022 (AP Photo/Lisa Leutner, File)

Sources told Reuters on Sunday that OPEC+ is preparing to approve a limited increase in oil production targets for December, reflecting growing concern among major producers about a potential oversupply in the global market.

According to three individuals familiar with the talks, eight members of the alliance, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria, are expected to agree on a collective output rise of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd). One source noted that the group may still opt to pause increases altogether, depending on last-minute discussions before the meeting scheduled for 1600 GMT.

Market Caution

The decision comes as OPEC+ faces a more fragile market outlook. Since April, the group has already boosted its production targets by more than 2.7 million bpd, representing roughly 2.5% of global supply. However, the pace of expansion slowed in October and November amid warnings from market analysts about a looming supply glut.

Oil prices, which hit a five-month low of about $60 a barrel on October 20, have since rebounded to around $65 per barrel. The recovery has been supported by new Western sanctions targeting Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, which have complicated Moscow’s ability to expand production.

Measured Expansion

The sanctions imposed by the US and the UK have also weighed on discussions within OPEC+, as Russia’s participation remains a key factor in balancing the coalition’s overall output. Despite these challenges, analysts from RBC, Rystad Energy, Commerzbank, and SEB anticipate that OPEC+ will still approve the modest 137,000 bpd rise for next month.

OPEC+ had sharply reduced production in recent years, with total cuts peaking at 5.85 million bpd in March. Those reductions were divided into three segments: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, additional cuts of 1.65 million bpd shared among eight members, and a broader group cut of 2 million bpd, which remains in place until the end of 2026.